Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Ali1977]

Do you think the METO will be scratching their heads

[Met4Cast]

BOOM UKMO joins the Greenland High Atlantic Block party

[ITSY]

GFS goes snow mad until +144 (something I haven't said in a wee while)...will be interesting to see UKMO +144.

Big upgrades on both these model so far.

EDIT

BOOOOOOM. UKMO on board.

Edited January 8, 2013 by ITSY

[southbank]

i maybe wrong but i believe the cracking 12z suites from MET and GFZ so far lies in the pacific ridge being more ampilfied , question is will the ecm continue with a less profund ridge???? really need ecm to start backing this , how cruel these charts are at 120-136

[bradymk]

UKMO follows suit! Brilliant 2 runs, over to the ECM, after seeing the UKMO and GFS, I would be surprised if it didnt move towards them but we'll see.

[Zenarcher]

Nice 144h UKMO,

[UV-RAY]

Not to mention the rush hour snowmaggedon for the west coast on Monday:

Bank that chart please, I'm getting more and more excited, UKMO looks like following GFS.

[TEITS]

If you thought the 12Zs were good so far wait till you see the UKMO at +144!

Stunning,

[Coast]

Far South and East are looking good for a snow day Saturday according to latest GFS and it runs all the way into Sunday on and off

[Panayiotis]

This is a great run so far but I have a concern, that cold pool to the east wasn't showing up on the 06z, could be a new signal or false one?

Edited January 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[cold snap]

as i said earlier today never doubt the gfs

[Anti-Mild]

At +150 the GFS is broadly similar to this morning's run, better heights further north, lower heights in near continent.

FI could be another cracker!!!

[cold snap]

as i said earlier today never doubt the gfs

[Backtrack]

as i said earlier today never doubt the gfs

You having a laugh?

[SMU]

if that varifies expect sub -2 maximas in the east & south

S

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png

-5 air over all the uk and some of Iteland still by next Tuesday... -10 air just off the east coast...

[Cheshire Freeze]

as i said earlier today never doubt the gfs

The GFS has given plenty of reasons to be doubted over the years. I think it's important to see the ECM back away from its idea of severing the heights link up.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is a great run so far but I have a concern, that cold pool to the east wasn't showing up on the 06z, could be a new signal or false one?

Everything is just a bit further west on this run, which really helps out in a big way. A very complex looking setup to forecast but ultimately both the UKMO and GFS are simply magnificent.

[snowstorm445]

Little to be hopeful about if you live in the West, certainly over many parts of England and Wales, it's snow galore but just rain and a bit of chill in the air over most of Ireland.

Still amazing synoptics, especially for high resolution.

[Lampostwatcher]

lovely

[Isolated Frost]

BOOM

BOOM

[Panayiotis]

So at 171hrs the easterly is gone no worries we are now in a northerly flow!

[TEITS]

This is a great run so far but I have a concern, that cold pool to the east wasn't showing up on the 06z, could be a new signal or false one?

To be honest this morning I posted some ensembles highlighting what the 12Z is showing so it isn't really a new signal. Some of the other models including the GEM have shown similar at times. This is why i've been harping on about the potential in the short term.

I could be wrong but in the medium, term we're going to see a different FI to the 06Z but this time a NE/E,ly via blocking developing to our NE.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

come on GFS, be a good fellow and fall into line with the ECM as instructed earlier!

Seriously, some great options on the table for this weekend, and next week just could be extraordinary.

Did I really see the word "snowtastic" in a MetOffice release from Fergie in an earlier post (I realise they weren't subscribing to it necessarily, but just the use of the word was brilliant).

[Snowman31]

This all seems a bit too good to be true, It will be a real kick in the teeth if we get a backtrack