Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Man With Beard]

GFS Mean at T126 ... 850s widely below -8C!!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

Edited January 8, 2013 by rjbw

[The PIT]

Confirm that ensembles in mid-range (days 6-9) are poor with many suggesting significant Atlantic influence.

Yes but at least it looks stormy. If I can't have cold bring on the gales instead.

[Met4Cast]

The Ensembles look fine from where I'm sitting? Not as good as the Op but I think that was to be expected, relax

[Met4Cast]

This is the Ensemble mean for T126

Yup. BIG Atlantic influence (not) Relax people, seriously. They're fine

[polarlow2]

I thought the Atlantic was expected to re-assert itself, briefly, next week anyway? So no big surprise?

[ITSY]

Great ENS for London.

What are people on about?

In the short term, yes, the mean is good. People are understandibly after a long term cold solution, and for that, the ens are a downgrade with this (an Azores dominated chart) the MEAN at 180 (high res, remember).

[warrenb]

The ensembles are not bad, the control is terrible, but what you have to bear in mind is that up until 144 you have 3 models with the operational going for cold with very similar synoptics.

[Neiller22]

I fully expect the ECM to remain as it is. Especially as the ensembles are some way off the op run. I think it will be Prozac time in an hr I'm afraid. This is nowhere near set in stone short term or medium to long term!! I really can't see it working out this year the way u all want it. That granted there may be a few colder spells but nothing sustained that I can see. Mind u I would love to be completely wrong.

[WheresTheSnow]

This may sound like a stupid question, but does the UKMO have ensembles ?

Edited January 8, 2013 by WheresTheSnow

[Weathizard]

Its worrying to see the ensembles do this, we saw this before it all went wrong in december, stunning ops but ENS were worsening! Perhaps just the pessimist in me though, need ECM on board.

[bluearmy]

gefs mean at day 10 looks awfully like ecm 00z day 10 mean. whilst we may be getting agreement on the mean at day 10, we can clearly see from the gefs members that the mean hides a fair few solution clusters so i doubt it really helps!

i'd say 8 out of 20 runs in post T300 timescale look mobile westerly. could be worse. at the end of the run, i'd happily take 9 of the members.

Edited January 8, 2013 by bluearmy

[Timmytour]

As far as the ensembles go, I expect, had they been around, there would have been a few members always a couple of days away from an Atlantic breakdown of the 1947 winter once it had set in.

[garbagebags]

GFS is famous for over powering the Atlantic, seen it thousands of times and will continue to see it happen...

I'm just sitting back for the mean time and watching everything closely

SM

True, but in fairness the ECM is famous for being the last to catch on to a serious cold spell..time will tell

[Southender]

In the short term, yes, the mean is good. People are understandibly after a long term cold solution, and for that, the ens are a downgrade with this (an Azores dominated chart) the MEAN at 180 (high res, remember).

Ahh I see.

But why look for the end of a cold spell when it has not even started yet.

Quite frankly looking at anything past about 4 days at the moment is FI. Including this weekends possible snow.

So why worry about Day 8 and beyond. It will change for better or worse over the next week.

Get the cold spell in this weekend and lets see what transpires after that.

[Rocheydub]

True, but in fairness the ECM is famous for being the last to catch on to a serious cold spell..time will tell

thats a horrendous sweeping statement. This models has the best verification stats at the range we're looking at right now!

[chris55]

Just got in and haven't seen the models since early this morning, looked at the GFS through to 192 and haven't checked any other data or read the thread (that should be fun) but felt I had to comment. Superb stuff!!!

Midday temps of -4/5 over the snow fields!!!! (just one run I know, but a very good one lol, up to 192 anyway, as that's as far as I have looked at the moment)

[snohobo]

to be honest the ENS scatter after the SW drops and this always happens. Until the positioning and strength of the low are more apparent the ENS are always going to explode. While the OP is a higher res the control could be any one of those ensembles.

Edited January 8, 2013 by snohobo

[ChartViewer]

Few 2M Temps from Sat to wet appetite for upcoming cold spell/snap

T96

T120

T144

T168

Central/Western Europe going very cold............

Edited January 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[weather eater]

Surely the ensembles are a guide for indicating the point of confidence divergence in any given run; the operational is un-tweaked data and thus considered the best guess. I wonder what the verification statistics are for ensemble runs, not great I suspect.

[The PIT]

Deep FI GEFS thankfully deep FI.

[phil nw.]

Can we get back to some sensible discussions please everyone -too many unrelated one liners are spoiling the thread.

[Buzzit]

I look at this and wonder why anyone is interested in making sweeping statements about FYI with respect to output and the good and the bad of it - and more-so the control because it is about diametrically opposed to the op - so if you dont like one you should not even be considering the other. Overall 850 and 500 mean is actually improved from a cold perspective on the 12z run overall

Edited January 8, 2013 by Buzzit

[Tim Bland]

It's either an epic win or an epic fail for the ECM... Time will tell...

[AWD]

Ensemble suite;

As expected, the Op pretty much the coldest member in the medium term. Control on the mild side however.

These still look rather good, chilly all the way with the control a milder option.

[Hammer]

It is ironic that reading this thread and trying to keep any sense of what is going on is rather like the ensembles.

GFS and UKMO 12 z operational decent but apparently not supported. Makes you wonder why have an operational then?

Seems like even the METO are sitting waiting for ECM data.