Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[124alex]

http://www.meteociel...CF0-96.GIF?08-0

ECM 850s at T96-

Snowline somewhere transitioning across the SW belt- Wales across hampshire down towards portsmouth- anywhere NE of these locations could catch the snow along the PPN belt

S

where abouts in SW sorry or north of here?

[garbagebags]

Where is the first place to post new models? Wetter still not got the 86 out

[snowice]

Ecm is different at +96 ,much better than the 12z .That low pressure south of ireland in line with gfs for cold easterly

Edited January 8, 2013 by snowice

[Robbie Garrett]

According to the MetOffice website, light rainfall from Saturday 6am - 2100 onwards...Surface wind easterly at 6-12 mph gusting 24 mph. Temperatures at 5*C, I suspect this will update as we get ever closer...

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Mainly fine in the east Thursday, with rain spreading into the west. This should clear eastwards Friday, with a brief drier interlude, before further rain or showers arrive into Saturday.

This can sneakily be changed without anyone knowing to......

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Mainly fine in the east Thursday, with rain spreading into the west. This should clear eastwards Friday, with a brief drier interlude, before further sleet or snow showers arrive into Saturday.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[ChartViewer]

ECM120

Edited January 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[TAFKAP]

WOW ! over 1,000 people and growing in the model thread this evening, having seen the GFS 12z I can understand why. anyone remind me what the record is ?

1963 lol

[Anti-Mild]

Where is the first place to post new models? Wetter still not got the 86 out

http://www.meteociel.com/

Scroll down to "Modeles"

+120 ECM is okay, although it's starting to look a little messy.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Anti-Mild

[ITSY]

ECM snow for N, E and Eastern central areas at +96

[TEITS]

well its not decided off the 12z ensembles, but you have to say there is an agreement starting to emerge for less cold air after the weekend, although ensembles have done a number of times before , where they go off to come back on, it ominous though.

As I said earlier we have seen 3 operationals which have all been much colder than the mean and yet the operationals continue with the colder outlook. Now in my experience you always go with the operational within +180.

Excellent ECM so far.

[Continental Climate]

Yep for me t96 is where we should stop taking it seriously lets just get this weekend sorted first then worry later about prolonging the cold snap!! Great model watching today though, massive across the board upgrades within 120 dont often happen!!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Continental Climate

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECH1-120.GIF?08-0

STUNNER

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECF0-120.GIF?08-0

Slow moving snow showers in -9c air....

S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

WOW ! over 1,000 people and growing in the model thread this evening, having seen the GFS 12z I can understand why. anyone remind me what the record is ?

1961, Wed 05 Dec, after 'That Ecm', just after the 18Z

[cold snap]

Epic ECM we have cross model agreement

Next week winter is coming

[Isolated Frost]

Just a note that EC 96 is a lot further west and slightly more south orientated than yesterdays EC 120 for the same time- it's a trend that will introduce a E flow into further southern parts and will bring much of England, as well as parts of south and eastern Scotland into the game this wknd-

The EC 96 solution has the ridging upper high in the atlantic, though the low pressure system by Greenland is more organised and cut when it comes to a closed circulation- the EC 120 could well shift focus when it comes to later modelling

[Lampostwatcher]

Bingo

[Southender]

Cross model agreement for cold and snow arriving at Day 4-5.

Thank You very much.

[Spanner]

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?08-0

STUNNER

http://www.meteociel...F0-120.GIF?08-0

Slow moving snow showers in -9c air....

S

Steve...I think you got your mojo back after these charts:)

[nick sussex]

ECM backtrack at 120hrs!

That was a big relief, OMG we've actually got reasonable model agreement at 120hrs!

[Stuie]

This could be a case of "Careful what you wish for" scenario if this is anything of a trend. I think I said that in Dec.

Edit : typo

Edited January 8, 2013 by StuieW

[Captain Shortwave]

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?08-0

STUNNER

http://www.meteociel...F0-120.GIF?08-0

Slow moving snow showers in -9c air....

S

Not too long to go until this would likely verify given reasonable agreement. Given my location, I am very very happy

[shotski]

Who on earth thinks the operational or any of the ensembles is worth taking seriously at the 7 - 10 day range frequently we see models run with an evolution at that range drop it and then pick it up again, I would always urge caution but I see little point falling over ourselves in a search for disaster, the ECM will be a long in a bit and will no doubt throw a spanner in the works anyway.

I can't see anything wrong with the GEFS Ensembles at day 5 (FI) Members on here a couple of days ago were telling us not

to look beyond t-120 but are now talking about t-240 etc .

[BLOWERS]

Look at that beautiful E'ly at +240! That's 3 consecutive runs with a similar outcome at that range! The SE is going to FREEZE!!!

Never mind that... the SEA is going to freeze.

[UV-RAY]

Seen enough at +144hrs to convince me we are heading into the freezer. Fantastic days model viewing, what could possibly go wrong from here.

[Cloud 10]

ECM at 120 hrs = GAME ON!

[DanDorsetUK]

WOAH Now thats impressive! Big upgrade there!