Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Paul Sherman]

Worth noting the GEM was the first model to pick up on the possible snow event this Saturday with the GFS & Now to a lesser extent the UKMO Coming into the fray.

Kudos to that Model for that!

[mulzy]

BOM at 144 looking ok

Yep, BOM looking very good in the medium range.

[Iceberg]

Re ENS, remember Ian F's comments that the models are the most unreliable as they have been in recent times, given the heightened sense of unreliability and change, if you run 20 or 50 members you will end up with alot of variety.

[Adam lufc]

Funny that since the ensembles have come out so have the armchairs knocking everything dwn and generally trying to spoil the thread and excitement in it. Fantastic output- if only. Just goes to show what happens if heights go north but not so if the ecm verifies which I bet it still does!!

[Isolated Frost]

1823 approximately for the 120, 1829 for the 144 when it comes to the EC.. 96 at near enough quarter past.

Here is yesterday's ECM 12z 96 panel (for Friday 12z)...

and today's GFS 12z 72 panel (also Friday 12z)

Very similar, just for comparison with the onset of notably cooler conditions from the continent this time set in as we approach the wkend

Edited January 8, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[MR EXTREMES]

very broad question that I haven't got the time to answer.

A few people jumping down my throat for stating facts. Yes the GFS op was superb for most, but there was less support than I anticipated, and the control goes off on one completely different. Hence my lack of faith. I isn't say it wasn't going to happen, just that uncertainty reigned still!

Anyway, back on topic, ECM rolling out. Time will tell.

I certainly don't want to get into a he said-she said childish debate. You'd swear MY lack of current positivity would cause this cold spell to fail!

Think ill skip posting here for a while if that's what to expect.

sorry i do apoligise and your very much correct in what you say i didnt mean to sound rude.

keep the faith ecm.

[weather eater]

The issue here isn't within 144 hours Nick it's the 7-10 day period where a lot of the perturbations have backed off the Greenland high idea, instead opting to place more energy around this area and an attendent Atlantic incursion into the UK. In my mind, potential heights around Greenland are the difference between a cold snap this weekend followed by status quo and something rather more sustained.

Who on earth thinks the operational or any of the ensembles is worth taking seriously at the 7 - 10 day range frequently we see models run with an evolution at that range drop it and then pick it up again, I would always urge caution but I see little point falling over ourselves in a search for disaster, the ECM will be a long in a bit and will no doubt throw a spanner in the works anyway.

[tight isobar]

The issue here isn't within 144 hours Nick it's the 7-10 day period where a lot of the perturbations have backed off the Greenland high idea, instead opting to place more energy around this area and an attendent Atlantic incursion into the UK. In my mind, potential heights around Greenland are the difference between a cold snap this weekend followed by status quo and something rather more sustained.

. I could,nt agree more with this post,hints are slowly becoming trends in regards greeny HP, and anyone in the know,does know thats the angle for longeivity.and im confident we,ll get there...

[nick sussex]

The issue here isn't within 144 hours Nick it's the 7-10 day period where a lot of the perturbations have backed off the Greenland high idea, instead opting to place more energy around this area and an attendent Atlantic incursion into the UK. In my mind, potential heights around Greenland are the difference between a cold snap this weekend followed by status quo and something rather more sustained.

Yes they might do but if the UKMO and GFS are right at 120hrs then you'd be hard pressed to go mobile from there.

The 850s don't tell the whole story because its what could come afterwards thats important ie what is the upstream set up at that point in time.

The ensembles that still look cold at 144hrs may already be worse upstream.

What I'm trying to say is that if the GFS/UKMO are right then the pattern thereafter is very unlikely to become mobile,you cant jump from their 144hrs to a mobile set up in a few days.

[SMU]

Yep great day- the upper air cold pool finally modelled to hit the UK at 96- so give it another day-

Also the GFS VERY consistent operationally with the pressure build to the NW- remember a fully fledged GH isnt required- just enough to distort the jet to the north which in turn will shift it west off the continent....

BOM looks great-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2013010812/bomnh-0-168.png?12

ECM poised...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECH1-72.GIF?08-0

S

[ChartViewer]

Well at T192 BOM is lovely......lets see what ECM delivers now...

[Isolated Frost]

EC still favours bringing in them cold 850s in earlier than the GFS suite, a very nippy Friday evening with -6c 850s approaching Edinburgh, Newcastle and Hull..

[snowice]

next frame t+96 watch low pressure of west of Ireland

[Iceberg]

ECM

at T72 is a carbon copy of

GFS

and certainly in the short timeframe is following the

GFS

rather than its own 00Z run

[LomondSnowstorm]

EC still favours bringing in them cold 850s in earlier than the GFS suite, a very nippy Friday evening with -6c 850s approaching Edinburgh, Newcastle and Hull..

ECM usually has a slightly colder upper air pool in these setups than the GFS, though I've never actually looked into which is more accurate! Looking good anyway so far, but then we're not quite at the crunch point yet.

Also, I'd rather have the GFS operational, the GEM and the UKMO onboard than just the GEFS. If the ECM comes onboard too so much the better but it's still not a done deal of course even then.

Edited January 8, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Wow I looked at the models at 5pm , I read the thred at 6pm and there was another 12 pages Iv just had to search through , that's some serious traffic folks!

Absoulute brilliant gfs run, is that 4 on the trot now including last nights 18z that's been amazing ?? If its trends to look for then isn't "COLD" the trend because that's the consistent theme in all the runs from this model recently.

Granted the ensembles show milder solutions on there , but that's the thing with battleground events I guess?

After all it was that word wasn't it " battleground " that was directly mentioned to Ian f , along with dec 1990 archives to "dig" up.

So all in all I'm very very happy tonight, especially with the ukmo on board tonight .

[Isolated Frost]

If its about the weather then it's related!

If it's about the weather models it's related

[Continental Climate]

I think thats decent http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECH1-96.GIF?08-0!!

[Troubleatmill]

well its not decided off the 12z ensembles, but you have to say there is an agreement starting to emerge for less cold air after the weekend, although ensembles have done a number of times before , where they go off to come back on, it ominous though.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECF0-96.GIF?08-0

ECM 850s at T96-

Snowline somewhere transitioning across the SW belt- Wales across hampshire down towards portsmouth- anywhere NE of these locations could catch the snow along the PPN belt

S

[Anti-Mild]

Probably the last frame of reasonably accurate output at +96 and the ECM has followed suit with the others!

YES!

[Iceberg]

ECM at T96 says yes and we have a full house for the recent timeframe....cold air across the country by saturday lunchtime, snow saturday morning, good movement of the trigger low and better modeling of the low exiting the US coast and the WAA and high pressure around greenland.

We get a greenlight from me, the rest is interesting but not really very relavent now.

[Phantom2]

WOW ! over 1,000 people and growing in the model thread this evening, having seen the GFS 12z I can understand why. anyone remind me what the record is ?

[Southender]

Well ECM would appear to be siding with GFS and UKMO at 96hrs. That will do for now.

[Lampostwatcher]

Snow