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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

reef

By reef
in Spring Weather Discussion

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

The GFS over the last several op runs have produced some spectacular charts, the latest in hi res and FI. Pretty amazing synoptics in the 12z GFS. You wont see many charts like this. I think this is the 3rd op run in 24 hours I have saved to my computer for future viewing ;)

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Wow

gfsnh-0-360_zoz2.png

I know! If this is what a SSW does to the PV, I want one for Christmas every year!
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Anti-Mild Contributor

Anti-Mild

Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
Posted

Look at the beautiful at 240?!?! Hmmm...FI is FI whatever it shows. blum.gif

Agreed. Not to get too philosophical but when FI shows the same thing repeatedly does it become less FI?

At +312 we have a bit of the PV dropping into Scandi...now that can't be bad!! (yes I know it's FI, but I can dream)

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted

GFS 12Z...

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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted

I think the pole has shifted in FI!!

Insane run from this weekend to finish.

ECM has to jump on the cold train now, surely?

gfsnh-0-360.png?12

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TheBigFreeze Newbie

TheBigFreeze

Posted
  • Location: East Dereham, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: snow or stormy...colder the better
  • Location: East Dereham, Norfolk
Posted (edited)

so is the UKMO considered a superior model? if so I'm guessing the fact that it is moving towards the GFS output can only be viewed as a good thing??

p.s what models do tesco use as went there last night and they have put snow shovels, buckets of salt and deicer etc in the entrance lol

Edited by TheBigFreeze
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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Wow

gfsnh-0-360_zoz2.png

This is what I would like to coin a Moses vortex run.

Just utterly speechless with this 12z run. I'm trying to stop myself getting carries away.

Until we see some cross-model consistency any getting excited is a dangerous game....but we all know we can't help ourselves.

The concern longer term for me is still how well the GFS is modelling the mid-atlantic low responsible for the WAA towards Greenland/Iceland, but with the UKMO looking pretty similar:

UN144-21.GIF?08-17

Its over to you in Reading mr ECM

SK

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Would,nt be at all suprised, to see the continental polar votex to be shifted further westward, ún near coming runs....delivering the ever craved DEEP, cold......:-)

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Surprising output thus far when you consider the clarity of the ECM this morning. Will it backdown ?

Bloomin' hope so Ian....i'm going to have a coronary otherwise

SK

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mike Meehan Maestro

mike Meehan

Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
Posted (edited)

and looking even further ahead smile.png

http://www.meteociel...&ech=384&mode=0

Block of cold approaching from east - if that LP gets into SW approaches it could make things interesting

http://www.meteociel...&ech=204&mode=1

Suitably cold 850's

http://www.meteociel...4&code=0&mode=5

Jet stream gone south

But it is a long time ahead - either wishful thinking on the part of La Méteo, or it may come to fruition - who knows at this stage apart from the Daily Express :)

Edited by mike Meehan
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Snow Run Newbie

Snow Run

Posted
  • Location: Groombridge, East Sussex 55m asl
  • Location: Groombridge, East Sussex 55m asl
Posted

Popped into a meeting an hour ago and have just emerged to find 7 pages of posts to read.

Did something happen?

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Is sat still FI, this close will METO start thinking about warnings, or will ECM need to be showing this too?

No - they're holding off as uncertainty still too great. Watch this space.

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

98df6e226ae4db26dfad2bd1aeffffb3.gif

Haven't seen a run like that in a while.. here's an animation of Saturday 00z until Wednesday 00z... bare in mind, the coldest stuff could well come afterwards.

Urge caution on taking this run though, probably very optimistic, but GFS modelling is in for a hell of a time in comparison to EC signals... fun fun at Exeter

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The Weather Dragon Contributor

The Weather Dragon

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
Posted

I think that some have underestimated the potential for this weekend - the scandi high may orientate itself in a favourable position for us - which could provide many with the first snows of the winter

I am only looking out to +120 and even then with caution - the weekends cold has been upgraded on 12z GFS due to a tighter E/NE gradient drawing the colder uppers in - could be further upgrades here - often see this in the shorter/medium term

What we can be reasonably certain of now is a pressure rise over scandinavia - as for post +120 dismiss - we all know what has happened before

That why we don't need to worry about the ECM operational for the medium term tonight

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