Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[mountain shadow]

All wait with baited breath for the 12z ECM. Crank up the servers for 6pm!!

[Cold Winter]

I'm preparing to crack open the champagne but not before we get the ECM on board. I'm far too nervous at the moment considering we don't have full agreement between the 3 main models, and look how that turned out just last month.

You have to give credit to the GFS though for being consistent now over the past few runs. But I think we have to remember consistency with 1 model doesn't automatically mean it's right. I'm sure everyone will be praying that the ECM at last shifts towards the GFS in tonight's output!!

[High Altitude]

New warming in the 12z run

Who would have ever thought the word warming could conjure up so much excitement in here!

[Adam lufc]

Ecm will stick - hugely hope not though. Feeling though.

[drgl]

Hmm, feet well & truly on the ground here. Won't believe it until T0 and snow is actually falling from the sky!

[Southender]

New warming in the 12z run

That would explain the 1065mb Kamchatkan HP appearing at the end of the run. Interesting and something to watch in future FI output.

[Timmytour]

disappointing GFS

<whistle>

[Snowman.]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-162.png?12

if that varifies expect sub -2 maximas in the east & south

S

#WeatherPorn

[Iceaxecrampon]

UKMO Cumbria Mountain Forecast going for ppn at approx 2100ft....

Saturday 12/1/13

.......Cloudy with occasional light rain. Precipitation falling as snow above 700m. Light and variable winds. Freezing level 700m.......

ECM out at 18:00

Ian

(Might have to upgrade this - feel as if they are being a bit conservative)

Edited January 8, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[DanDorsetUK]

If the ECM dont come on board tonight now ill pickle my walnuts!!

[bobbydog]

not the best run but we should see upgrades soon......

(i said that after yesterdays 18z......)

[mulzy]

GEM on board for something wintry this weekend and beyond perhaps

[Weathizard]

WOW stunning run from weekend to FI, thought the block might crumble bit it didn't, stunning, truly amazing charts last few runs.

Hope more ENS support this one!! Please ECM deliver!

[Southender]

So as it stands.

GFS - Epic

UKMO - Tasty

GEM - Tasty

ECM - To be revealed at 6:30...

Edited January 8, 2013 by Shrimper

[Snowman.]

New warming in the 12z run

I feel sorry for the PV

*sarcasm*

[Yarmy]

Probably worth bumping this which some may have missed earlier:

Posted by

Iceberg

on Today, 15:51 in

Forecasting Model Discussion

should be an interesting set of 12z coming up.

First off we've got the

GFS

; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.

Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06

GFS

would be good.

Finally the

ECM

,

A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep

for both), the 12z today should be the first

ecm

with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that

ecm

will revert to GH height rises in the medium term.

Data assimilation issue perhaps? Time will tell.

[Southern Storm]

Popped into a meeting an hour ago and have just emerged to find 7 pages of posts to read.

Did something happen?

Lol just look how many people are logged on, that tels you all you need to know!

And if we get the ECM onboard then we will probably break the record for most users online at once!

Also the gfs fits with GPs thoughts with regard to most of the vortex heading to Siberia

With a large pacific ridge! Just need the ecm onboard!

[ITSY]

The Polar Vortex has literally jumped up whatever dark place from which it came. over to the ens now

[Bobby]

Not a bad GEM either at +138 ,very cold with snow showers in the E. Looks better than 00z which was pretty good.

[Tony Beets]

Wow

Like someone said I love the look of that pacific ridge, like a knife through butter!!

[Iceni]

Any chance of Paul upping the recommend quotas? I've just run out… so many charts, so many excellent comments, so much snow! Euphoria is the word.

[weather eater]

Not often I view every single frame on a GFS run.

It’s not important if the ECM doesn’t back the whole of this run, indeed it would be surprising if it did, however It will be a worry if it’s not close enough out to about the 120hr mark. Very consistent from the GFS, but remember we have seen that before and its no guarantee.

Edited January 8, 2013 by weather eater

[bluearmy]

had the 12z's delivered a downgrade on their 00z output, it would mean little. as it is, so far they have upgraded. does it mean anything ? lets see where the ensembles go

[Vince]

question for the experts . does the ECM take on board any of these runs by the other models ? into their number crunching equation . how many models are their ?

some years ago i heard a expert say there were 7

[ITSY]

The control going for a less optimim scenario so far with a messy rain-snow event sat night followed by heavy snow (perhaps turning to rain) monday to tuesday.