Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Wilxy]

The GFS must be ill then i can't believe it.

[Ian Suffolk]

Phenomenal charts from UKMO. The game is still most certainly on!

[Snowy Liverpool]

some big uncertainty now if ECM can also say no then GFS is wrong surely?

Couple minutes ago you were saying GFS was right? At this stage as soon as we get cross-model agreement on what's going to happen early next week, whether it be mild or cold, it's almost certain to happen. Until then let's hope UKMO and ECM keep it up.

[Cheshire Freeze]

People should be riled at this.

Oh I am.....I said earlier that so much money is pumped into these computers that sagas such as this shouldn't be happening. Not at 72 hrs out.

[Met4Cast]

I would absolutely hate to be sitting at the MetO desk right now, I bet they haven't got a clue whats going on!

[Wilxy]

Couple minutes ago you were saying GFS was right? At this stage as soon as we get cross-model agreement on what's going to happen early next week, whether it be mild or cold, it's almost certain to happen. Until then let's hope UKMO and ECM keep it up.

Yes, don't u think it seems odd that GFS still says no, while UKMO still says yes, no cross model agreement still next week.

Will be intresting to see what models follow GFS this morning.

Edited January 10, 2013 by TomW

[SNOWPLOUGH]

If ECM agrees with the UKMO then GFS has to be wrong!

Dan

[alexisj9]

you would think it would drop hitting that block to our north... strange why it goes e

The jet at 132 goes east to norway.

http://www.meteociel...6&code=0&mode=5

Frame 132, I don't know how to post to the right frame lol.

Edited January 10, 2013 by alexisj9

[etched Chaos]

Oh I am.....I said earlier that so much money is pumped into these computers that sagas such as this shouldn't be happening. Not at 72 hrs out.

Actually they can and will continue to happen, the weather is not some stable thing that is easy to predict. No matter how much money you throw at it, the weather will still cause problems in the future, to think otherwise is to underestimate the complexity of the weather and the chaos it throws up.

I would absolutely hate to be sitting at the MetO desk right now, I bet they haven't got a clue whats going on!

Really? Seems to me from all signs from Ian F that they tend to ignore the GFS, so why would they be all confused? They believe it'll be getting colder, every model they place importance in agrees with that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Aaaaaannnddd the GEM goes with the UKMO etc etc

[Zenarcher]

NOGAPS appears to have downgraded itself not as bad as the GFS run though. So many changes.

I'm afraid with complicated set ups the models really struggle even the best ones so more changes will occur.

Edit - I see GEM goes with the UKMO good to see.

Edited January 10, 2013 by weathermaster

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM says yes again thats now UKMO, GEM against GFS so far.

That's last night's 0z run atm

[Snowy Liverpool]

Yes, don't u think it seems odd that GFS still says no, while UKMO still says yes, no cross model agreement still next week.

Will be intresting to see what models follow GFS this morning.

It does seem very odd for it to be going against background signals so much. This could be because it's simply wrong or it's actually picked up on something. GFS has done both of these scenarios countless times in the past. We still have a big majority of the charts going for a colder outcome, with the very short range, high resolution charts saying yes to cold as well. As far as I'm aware it's just the JMA and GFS on the mild side.

[The Eagle]

GEM says yes again thats now UKMO, GEM against GFS so far.

That's yesterday's.

[Snowfan50]

So just the GFS still out on its own, some people are knee jerk reacting to everything, just need to keep a level head right now, i know we will fear the GFS its normal to be a little worried that its not the same.

[echodelta21]

Good grief! Been lurking for some time and finally remembered my login to start adding a *huge* number of people to the ignore list....

The simple facts as they remain are that we're getting within a critically short timeframe for any massive changes to be made. There are two simple options (as many more, um, realistic, peeps have pointed out already):

1: Every single major model (and a couple of minor players) have got the synoptics nailed on, and the next few days will pan out as planned

2: Every single major model has that has agreed consistency for some time has got the whole situation wrong and the GFS is correct.

I wouldn't (and won't, at 0435) work out the odds against the GFS in this siutation. And many much more knowledgable people than me have highlighted the reasons why GFS may be having a difficult time with this situation.

Constantly reading one liners and the classic 'winter is over' or 'write of the rest of 'x' month' posts grates on the nerves, and i'm not sure if the ignore list will take the strain.....

How about we settle down, keep observing the outputs and then deal with what we get given.

For my money, and to err on the side of caution, I believe we will end up with a *very* slightly modified ECM setup towards less cold conditions. It'll still be damn cold, and plenty of white stuff, but i'm not going to scream and throw the toys out of the pram over one model refusing to play ball...it can go and sit in the sin bin for all I care.

And on for the MODS: next winter, can we have the unusual option of not 'ignoring' people, but perhaps a 'follow' button....those people that post copious amounts of drivel within a short timeframe will then drop off the radar and leave much more informative, useful posts.

/rantover

Edited because I forgot to put which modified setup...d'oh

Edited January 10, 2013 by echodelta21

[southbank]

So the Iceland drama continues , it's all about which model is right about does it deepen or not , thought the 0z would have one of the models blink but not yet so await the ECM ........

[Wilxy]

That's last night's 0z run atm

My mistake sorry guys.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's not even that we're badly placed hemispherically on the GFS op, it simply doesn't show much vortex disruption at all. Very suspect.

GEM this morning looks good too at 96 hours.

Edited January 10, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Cheshire Freeze]

FWIW the NOGAPS has flipped in support of GFS so it has at least one other model showing a similar outcome.

[Wilxy]

Lets hope the GFS ensembles call it a mild outlinder, cause its getting a bit concerning now.

[LomondSnowstorm]

FWIW the NOGAPS has flipped in support of GFS so it has at least one other model showing a similar outcome.

It did the same at the 00Z yesterday only to revert to the ECM in later runs. Like a model Groundhog Day so far.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Todays GEM looking good at +102hrs with Shortwave diving south east.

Dan

[etched Chaos]

It did the same at the 00Z yesterday only to revert to the ECM in later runs. Like a model Groundhog Day so far.

It's also just the NOGAPS.

Until Ian F tells us the MetO are going with the GFS, I'm going to ignore it's contrasting view.

[The Eagle]

NOGAPS 00Z carbon copy of GFS. Oh dear.