Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[SP1986]

I think some people need to keep their heads, obviously it's exciting from the perspective of snow lovers, but to base excitement of breakdown which is so far out there's no way it can be trusted is bizarre, given how many people have been criticising the GFS.

Is the GFS 18z run assured? of course it's not.. we really do need more runs of this before we can jump on the 'job done' bandwagon!

[Jimmy0127]

Another flip-flop day model wise? Seem to be seeing good consensus now, at least to 72.

I for one though will not forget the uncharacteristically poor performance of GFS over the last 48.

Edited January 10, 2013 by phil n.warks.
personal comment removed

[bluearmy]

ensembles could be interesting ....................

theoretically, they should be slower to pick up the shortwave dropping south and the undercutting

[al-Tikriti]

if upto High resolution was not cherry enough. T192 + till the end is simply undescribable

Agreed but what has caused this sudden turn around in model output? Could someone with more technical expertise than I please give an indication of how the GFS got it wrong for a couple of days and has now backed down?

[ChartViewer]

europe getting really cold aswell which only adds to the likely outcome bbbbbbrrrrrrr

Very cold

[Panayiotis]

And to end a brilliant run we have a dry but very cold easterly, eagerly awaiting the ensembles now!.

Eye candy as one calls it however.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Panayiotis

[goosey007]

omg GFS snowing snow event of my life comming up for us and many others in south east wales if this comes off!!!! going to but a shovel from aldi tomorrow

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS well into low resolution with that one, I am sure that it's a bit overdone, as 968mb with hot to the southwest and very cold surroundings would be very very severe. That's not something you want, we as a country cannot deal with that. Some very heavy snow fall, probably blizzards and drifting snow in London, with 32 mph winds, with gusting in the region of 50/60mph would kill a lot of people. I for one hope this chart does not verify.....

Ohh shush and don't be a drama queen! We've managed perfectly fine in the past with such events. Let us revel in our 'blizzard' charts for they may not even happen, and when they do it's hardly very often!

[Jayces]

what are streamers??

WIth a favourable wind direction ie from ENE for a thames streamer it produces a stream of snow showers that start in the thames estuary and spread to isle of wight widening as they go and giving very crazy accumalations of snow, got a foot before in one night, some people more.

[Davey80]

We may think that none of this is possible next week but the low heights in Europe are almost guaranteed to drag lows nw to se under us. Once this set up is in place it'll be locked in for a while. Really looks like a copy of 78/79 or 47 now. We won't know how much snow will fall till the time is upon us but a lot of us have never seen anything this major before. Its completely different to 2010 when a lobe of the vortex dropped over us with developing snow. Next week could be organised snow storms attacking from the Atlantic!

[stainesbloke]

Won't the Azores high on that fax chart help push the Atlantic back in?

Quite possibly, though fairly slowly and with some frontal snow IMHO. Hopefully this won't be a window for milder air to come in.

[snowblues]

Looks like our next big blast from the ne,could be knocking on our door by about T183,if once again the gfs is overplaying the Atlantic push.

[StormyLincs]

Looks like its just scrapping Lincolnshire/East Yorkshire too.

May be a bit early to pick up on trough location atm grimsby snow lover but nice eye candy all the same!

[BeastFromTheEast]

WIth a favourable wind direction ie from ENE for a thames streamer it produces a stream of snow showers that start in the thames estuary and spread to isle of wight widening as they go and giving very crazy accumalations of snow, got a foot before in one night, some people more.

Hmm if the poster refered to E.Anglia, and streamers are from the Thanes south, looking at the fax chart I'm confused now lol,so basically nothing for mid norfolk then?? lol

[Cloud 10]

Won't the Azores high on that fax chart help push the Atlantic back in?

The atlantic would struggle to push in against the cold block over the UK.

Any fronts coming in would likely stall and give snow.

[Tim Bland]

omg GFS snowing snow event of my life comming up for us and many others in south east wales if this comes off!!!! going to but a shovel from aldi tomorrow

Ahh Predictive text at its best... But me a shovel whilst your there is that a dry patch over Steve m's house I see? Seriously though don't take much notice of these depth / precip charts at this range. Precip distribution with change massively run by run. It's the pattern that's important and thank god GFS came on board in the end!

[al-Tikriti]

what are streamers??

Experts correct me if I'm wrong but a streamer is often linked to 'lake effect' snow and are enhanced by geographical features concentrating winds onto a particular area. For example the heavy London snowfall of Feb '09 was caused by a Thames streamer.

[Slowpoke]

WIth a favourable wind direction ie from ENE for a thames streamer it produces a stream of snow showers that start in the thames estuary and spread to isle of wight widening as they go and giving very crazy accumalations of snow, got a foot before in one night, some people more.

Ah, yes!

Early January 2010, here in NW England (I live in Blackpool)... Wow, I can't remember the date specifically but we just had shower after shower after shower, slowly building into continuous snowfall leaving us with a massive amount the next morning! Wind was NW or WNW but with incredible cold established over us...

[TEITS]

what are streamers??

A streamer is something members in the SE often refer to when an isolated snow shower moves into the Thames.

[Froze were the Days]

Looks like quite high uppers in there as the LP's get closer to our shore - very marginal I would think (certainly to the south and west).

Edited January 10, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[Cal]

This could be a historic spell of weather coming up in the next 10 days or more, with snow covered areas and winds dropping light there will be some very low temps overnight, good to see the GFS smelling the coffee (finally) somewhat alongside the Euro's, still it all has to verify, however, the potential for cold weather and snow has vastly improved today, i'm surprised Nick hasn't given today an 11/10 on the optimism scale , after some pretty impressive cyclonic conditions where the jet stream is to the south of the U.K. we are left with an Anti - Cyclonic pressure in just about the perfect area for some very, very low minima's in areas with snowfield cover.

[Slowpoke]

It just goes to show that everyone needs to stay calm - even if the charts aren't showing EXACTLY what they want.

This morning, many were moaning "ECM has backtracked, game over". It just goes to show that anything 5+ days out in set-ups like these are totally up for grabs!

If it all goes tits up overnight model wise, don't start fitting tomorrow morning again guys... It could all be different once again by lunchtime.

Monday onwards is absolutely FI, keep telling yourselves that!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Slowpoke

[snowking]

ECM32 will update shortly too

Thought this might be useful to show the trend from the previous run:

The green line indicates the mean, and you can see that it had pretty good support through until the 20th for something well below average. A lot more scatter thereafter (as you would expect!)

SK

[Liam J]

Quite an epic backtrack tonight from the GFS which has been long anticipated and has done nothing for it's credibility! Let's hope the 00z suite follows the same route, exciting times indeed.

[Ice Day]

A streamer is something members in the SE often refer to when an isolated snow shower moves into the Thames.

Oi, I'll have you know a 'streamer' requires no less than two snow showers moving into the Thames. Please get your facts straight!!!!