South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[AWD]

The trend I've noticed Iceberg, is for quite a few of the models to make far less of the PPN?

We are here trying to find the boundary, but come the day there may be nothing to find the boundary off!!

Both the NAE & NMM don't make too much of it.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Iceberg]

Awd I think your right the globals show a big blob of precip, however the high res seem to show a precip at around 2-4mm/cm 3/hr.

Ie just some lighter stuff. I might be that the higher res models show else's interaction, developement and so will have a smaller warm sector further west. Will be interesting to see from the nae and nmm going forward.

[divadee]

It's wild and wooly here this morning. (That's my daughters technical terms for rain and wind!)

Haven't seen any models yet. Scared to look.

[AWD]

It's wild and wooly here this morning. (That's my daughters technical terms for rain and wind!)

Haven't seen any models yet. Scared to look.

There is some good and there is some bad.

Look at the good ones!

[divadee]

There is some good and there is some bad.

Look at the good ones!

😄 I want the models that show me I will be building a ⛄ sometime this week. I will only choose those ones lol.

[AWD]

😄 I want the models that show me I will be building a ⛄ sometime this week. I will only choose those ones lol.

Here you go then!

(Disclaimer; WILL change)

[divadee]

Here you go then!

(Disclaimer; WILL change)

Lol. Woohoo! 😜

[TropicThunder]

Wow, just been woken by insanely torrential rain here (Southampton), it's like a monsoon out there. Almost as exciting as the possible forthcoming snow!

And as I type, a deep booming rumble of thunder, WTF?! Wasn't expecting this.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The upper 850hpa temperature charts are all very marginal for the West Country, with -4/-5c upper air shown for most of us.

Therefore, we can't really base "will it snow" solely on these. Look at other factors such as WBFL and thickness' too, to see if these make things any better.

It's all very marginal, but so far northern & eastern areas of our region are scraping into the right side of marginal, just.

Forecasting can only do so much here, this event (or non event) ultimately will be a nowcast event.

P.S. ECM is good in that "mild" sector is quickly replaced by colder air again. Not good beyond midweek though, Atlantic returns, but lets concentrate on Monday for now.

Disagree with that to b honest , I think you'll find the snow line creeps west today , I would say Bristol eastwards will be snow.

[Mesoscale]

It was hailing as well, sounded like somebody was pouring frozen peas down the window. I dove out of bed when I saw the lightning to try to open the window before the thunder but because it was close I didn't make it before the thunder got here. Haven't heard a bit of thunder like that on a while. That was a wardrobe shaker. I think that was the first time I've seen hail in darkness as well.

[BristolBlizzard]

going by netweather radar sleet , snow, into birmingham and just sleet in a arch to london showing up hope thats a good indicator for southwest later today

[cerneman]

Very gusty winds, Can someone post there temps Dorset locality please, My temp sensor not working,

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The trend I've noticed Iceberg, is for quite a few of the models to make far less of the PPN?

We are here trying to find the boundary, but come the day there may be nothing to find the boundary off!!

Both the NAE & NMM don't make too much of it.

I'm. Getting the impression that there's actually two bands Monday , well three actually because there's a tail on the back edge of the low pressure , which will cross us Monday night .

The first band is the leading weaker band and that gets to us Sunday night , (10pm ish ) the main band is the cold front (much heavier stuff that on the last frame of nae you can see heavier ppn gathering on the back edge of the band) you will find as this mixes with the first front it will massively enhance the snow and more or less double the size of it , then there's the tail (or sting in its tail ) which crosses us all Monday night , that will potentially a strong nasty little feature, with heavy snow almost like a squall line in it.

Let's see how this pans out now I may be wrong but that's how I see it.

[AWD]

Disagree with that to b honest , I think you'll find the snow line creeps west today , I would say Bristol eastwards will be snow.

It was Bristol eastwards yesterday, as per the 96 hour FAX.

[TropicThunder]

It was hailing as well, sounded like somebody was pouring frozen peas down the window. I dove out of bed when I saw the lightning to try to open the window before the thunder but because it was close I didn't make it before the thunder got here. Haven't heard a bit of thunder like that on a while. That was a wardrobe shaker. I think that was the first time I've seen hail in darkness as well.

I thought it was hailing due to the noise but wasn't sure as it's dark. I missed the lightning, but the thunder was great.

[Mark Parsons]

Very gusty winds, Can someone post there temps Dorset locality please, My temp sensor not working,

7c here mate, you could probably knock 0.5 off that as you are inland.........

[divadee]

Very gusty winds, Can someone post there temps Dorset locality please, My temp sensor not working,

6 temp and 5 dew point here in christchurch.

[AWD]

I'm. Getting the impression that there's actually two bands Monday , well three actually because there's a tail on the back edge of the low pressure , which will cross us Monday night .

The first band is the leading weaker band and that gets to us Sunday night , (10pm ish ) the main band is the cold front (much heavier stuff that on the last frame of nae you can see heavier ppn gathering on the back edge of the band) you will find as this mixes with the first front it will massively enhance the snow and more or less double the size of it , then there's the tail (or sting in its tail ) which crosses us all Monday night , that will potentially a strong nasty little feature, with heavy snow almost like a squall line in it.

Let's see how this pans out now I may be wrong but that's how I see it.

I see what you mean now. The FAX also has a "double occlusion" on it. I think a deeper dig into the charts might be in order later, when I have time.

[Iceberg]

5.7 in north Dorset at 150ft dropping though as it was 6.8 80 mins ago

[Mark Parsons]

going by netweather radar sleet , snow, into birmingham and just sleet in a arch to london showing up hope thats a good indicator for southwest later today

Just need some reports on the ground to support it, can be a bit inaccurate at times!!

[cerneman]

7c here mate, you could probably knock 0.5 off that as you are inland.........

Thanks ,

[Mark Parsons]

I'm. Getting the impression that there's actually two bands Monday , well three actually because there's a tail on the back edge of the low pressure , which will cross us Monday night .

The first band is the leading weaker band and that gets to us Sunday night , (10pm ish ) the main band is the cold front (much heavier stuff that on the last frame of nae you can see heavier ppn gathering on the back edge of the band) you will find as this mixes with the first front it will massively enhance the snow and more or less double the size of it , then there's the tail (or sting in its tail ) which crosses us all Monday night , that will potentially a strong nasty little feature, with heavy snow almost like a squall line in it.

Let's see how this pans out now I may be wrong but that's how I see it.

That was my impression to, but will it stay that way, probably, position will change though probably so still anyones guess who gets it, very promising all the same......

[BristolBlizzard]

Just need some reports on the ground to support it, can be a bit inaccurate at times!!

yes good point mark

[iowpompeylee]

Looked white a bit here from hail stones lol.i really do hope the cold sets in quickly down here on the Isle of Wight.but I'm sitting in half way house now.if the cold digs in then we all have a chance.going to be an interesting week whatever happens.good luck all ;-)

[Jane Louise]

A nice new thread for a brand new day Please carry on here