South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[lynnsim]

ok, not as risque, but just as sexist....One thing I've noticed about dating is it's so hard to find the right person these days.

All I want is a woman who loves long walks on the beach.

It'll give her something to do whilst I watch football.

yes, I'm setting a very bad example on posting ettiquette for the thread...so, with that in mind, back on topic.....erm......it's winter out there!

No-one appears to be moderating the mods tonight!!

[gottolovethisweather]

NMM as in here? http://forum.netweat...del-for-the-uk/

Not something I've used.

Yes

[fergieweather]

Latest modified NAE continues trend of lessening PPN rates through evening; Brecon Beacons remains our only dead cert for settling snow across southern UK to any reliable degree (based on MOGREPS & 4KM snow modelling). Elsewhere, remaining very marginal depending on PPN intensity. Incidentally, given tephi profiles, a key element we need to cater for is possibility of convective cells developing immediately behind the front and thereafter overrunning the colder air. In turn, these would locally increase PPN instantaneous rates in some southern areas, which would readily turn to snow through evaporative cooling effects.

[otleygas]

So...other than for those north and east of Bristol who should do well...is there any hope of any significant snowfall (ie settling snow) for those south westerners further south or east?

[Beast of Plympton]

Hmmm!!! Not looking good for Devon and Cornwall yet again. Even early to middle of next week looks pretty dire.

Anybody got any straws I can clutch?

Its not over until the fat snowman is built! I have faith, the models are very important but mother nature will do what she wishes in the end....

[AWD]

NMM as in here? http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-3452-new-nmm-hi-res-forecast-model-for-the-uk/

Not something I've used.

This is the best forecasting tool kit available on the web!

[sherrie]

Ahhh the sound of rain beating down on the conservatory roof so familiar. Its pretty heavy here in Axminster, has been for the last hour on and off.

[Stoxs]

SOMEONE PLEASE! moderate the mods tonight!!

thats better!!lol

Edited January 11, 2013 by Stoxs

[DanDorsetUK]

Back to zonal heavy rain, Strong Jet, Dire run tonight

[fergieweather]

Yes

Interesting. Never heard of it used outside of some local US forecasts. I'll have a peek.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

A light dusting would be better than the zilch we had in 2012, how desperate is that? If Devon can't manage any snow this winter, I'm relying on you guys to post photos to us far Southwesterners to make us smile.

[fergieweather]

Ahhh the sound of rain beating down on the conservatory roof so familiar. Its pretty heavy here in Axminster, has been for the last hour on and off.

More tomorrow! Joy....

[Beast of Plympton]

Latest modified NAE continues trend of lessening PPN rates through evening; Brecon Beacons remains our only dead cert for settling snow across southern UK to any reliable degree (based on MOGREPS & 4KM snow modelling). Elsewhere, remaining very marginal depending on PPN intensity. Incidentally, given tephi profiles, a key element we need to cater for is possibility of convective cells developing immediately behind the front and thereafter overrunning the colder air. In turn, these would locally increase PPN instantaneous rates in some southern areas, which would readily turn to snow through evaporative cooling effects.

Hi Ian,

Going to be cheeky and ask your opinion given your knowledge and expertise.... Hope you dont mind!

What are the chances for snow over high dartmoor this weekend/next week?

Thanks

Ian

Princetown

[A.J]

thats better!!lol

ooh...where's the 'unlike' button?!

[gottolovethisweather]

Couple of possible showers blown our way from the north east during wednesday or thursday but nothing to shout about

Sounds good, you in Cornwall.

And by the way, well done for seeing into the future.

Anything can happen in the next five days and even tomorrow's event isn't nailed as of yet, if you care to listen to others in the know.

Sorry to pick on your post as things were going so nicely previously, what has caused your change of attitude, is it jumping on one run trauma?

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[kumquat]

Hi Ian,

You mentioned radiative cooling earlier. I always thought that would come into effect under slack winds and cloudless skies. Can you tell us any more about that aspect? Thanks for your input.

[DanDorsetUK]

And right in FI spitting out lows for us just for fun, seen enough for one day, night all

[Stoxs]

ooh...where's the 'like' button?!

thank you

[gottolovethisweather]

Sorry for doing this once again, just for the record.

These regional threads are geared for a more general 'chatty' discussion to give all members a chance to post and talk about your local conditions, your thoughts on how things are panning out and also to enjoy reading informative posts, we are lucky to have members with extensive knowledge in meteorology who are only to happy to share their thoughts with the rest of us.

The forum is extremely busy at the moment so in the interests of keeping the regional threads running smoothly please before you post just think about whether you'd be interested in what you're saying were someone else to post it. Pointless one liners and posts just asking if/when/where it will snow may well be deleted to ensure ease of use to all members during this busy period.

Also during this busy time the member’s locations have been temporarily switched off so if you haven’t already done so please add your location to your signature as it’s nice to know where everyone is located especially when you are reporting snow (for anyone not sure how to do this go to Edit Profile, Signature, Edit and Save)

I sincerely hope most of you will be very happy within the next few days; some may not but in any event please try to keep the thread topical, cheerful and positive for all our sanities.

[iowpompeylee]

Met office have shot the isle of wights temps upto 5c on Monday...a rain day again by the looks of it....great :-/ still hopeful later In week

[AWD]

And right in FI spitting out lows for us just for fun, seen enough for one day, night all

Probably be much easier if you put all of your reports into one post mate, much easier to read.

I advise strongly not to go FI hunting in the NWP. We are all struggling forecasting the next few days with high res models let alone the next couple of weeks from a low res GFS.

Lots of potential still there to grab in the short term. Whether we grab it or not though is another matter.

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[DanDorsetUK]

Sounds good, you in Cornwall.

And by the way, well done for seeing into the future.

Anything can happen in the next five days and even tomorrow's event isn't nailed as of yet, if you care to listen to others in the know.

Sorry to pick on your post as things were going so nicely previously, what has caused this change of attitude, is it jumping on one run trauma!

Still think it will come west more than its suggesting and some fair chances during the week of seeing some white stuff for all of us at some stage just doesnt look good with the vortex powering up and charging the Jet for future cold with that run.

[gottolovethisweather]

Probably be much easier if you put all of your reports into one post mate, much easier to read.

I advise strongly not to go FI hunting in the NWP. We are all struggling forecasting the next few days with high res models let alone the next couple of weeks from a low res GFS.

Lots of potential still there to grab in the short term. Whether we grab it or not though is another matter.

That was perhaps an even better way of explaining things.

You should get a job as a MOD.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Still think it will come west more than its suggesting and some fair chances during the week of seeing some white stuff for all of us at some stage just doesnt look good with the vortex powering up and charging the Jet for future cold with that run.

Fair enough but follow the trend is all I'll say. Afterall you are commenting on the pub run and all model suites are probably still incorporating the effects of the SSW right now.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Now casting, it's heaving down out there at 6.1C.

As to the outlook, I'm not even going there