South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Dampdorset82]

Now casting, it's heaving down out there at 6.1C.

As to the outlook, I'm not even going there

Im from Poole to and tbh I think we wont get much snow mainly rain it appears.

As for the rest of our region the higher and the further north and east you are obviously the higher risk.

[kent]

I live in hope of snow as per usual but down here in Poole the sea temperatures are still not much below 10 degrees and given the recent mild conditions the dew points are not going to be in our favour. Inland is always going to be favoured.

[Stoxs]

to keep on topic tonight

current conditions, just started to rain here in the last hour, not much but a bit.

think most of us will have to wait until monday to see any decent setlling snow, going to be marginal for most and with wet ground thoses poor little flakes tomorrow will disolve before they have lived!!

[offerman]

Lets just think for now the already saturated areas and what Saturdays rain might do to them. Lets hope not to much rain as more floods tomorrow in some areas, water tables topped out.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm confused.com

Purple specks turning up on the radar right over some central parts, not freezing rain surely, way too warm?

Also, looks like some sleet over parts of Central Scotland. Still the coldest uppers remain tantalisingly close to the East coast.

[gottolovethisweather]

Lets just think for now the already saturated areas and what Saturdays rain might do to them. Lets hope not to much rain as more floods tomorrow in some areas, water tables topped out.

Indeed and TBF the future output is just as concerning for them as well.

[SnowSweetheart]

Fingers crossed for snow! I always take the weather forecast for the southwest with a pinch of salt, as through experience I've learnt that it's subject to change at the drop of a hat. Here's hoping we get a few days of the white stuff

[SunnySouthCoast]

Raining here in Southsea too & 7.4C

[Nights King]

Well I have just returned from my well needed refreshment break and I'm still not convinced we will see any proper snow event over the next few days unless I'm looking at it all wrong it looks wrong side of marginal?

[Kiwi]

I'm confused.com

Purple specks turning up on the radar right over some central parts, not freezing rain surely, way too warm?

Yes I'd been wondering the same ...Purple Rain? Prince?...all those hazy nights at Monroes in Plymouth...years and years ago come flooding back. (Is it still there?)

...seriously though what are the purple bits??

[gottolovethisweather]

Wow, check out the snow risk for Wednesday.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

It can snow almost anywhere and this proves it.

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes I'd been wondering the same ...Purple Rain? Prince?...all those hazy nights at Monroes in Plymouth...years and years ago come flooding back. (Is it still there?)

...seriously though what are the purple bits??

I think its precipitation that is now nudging into the lower Dewpoints, courtesy of the NMM setting on the V6 radar.

To me, as I'm not that far away from some of it, it still seems too warm for that, but of course there are many other atmospheric factors to be included as well.

The heaviest batch of precipitation (tomorrow's event/non-event) is now heading into the extremities of the Southwest.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Stoxs]

Wow, check out the snow risk for Wednesday.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

It can snow almost anywhere and this proves it.

I would much preffer the risk to be higher monday than that, chances down here seam to be reducing ever so slightly each run.

only around 40% for here monday.

95% wednesday with 1 mm!!! tsk hardly enough to dust a christmas cake.

oh well we have downers and lets hope for some uppers!

[latitude]

The 18z is rubbish for the SW. All the way through until the Atlantic on Thursday.

Monday has rain for most.

[A.J]

I think its precipitation that is now nudging into the lower Dewpoints, courtesy of the NMM setting on the V6 radar.

To me, as I'm not that far away from some of it, it still seems too warm for that, but of course there are many other atmospheric factors to be included as well.

not totally correct Tony....If it's showing purple ppn echoes (ie frozen rain) then what it means is that temps at the 850hpa boundary are above freezing but surface temps are below freezing, or more specifically, ppn is falling through a layer of the atmosphere that has an ambient temp of above freezing, with a colder (below freezing) layer near the surface

[Mark Parsons]

Well I have just returned from my well needed refreshment break and I'm still not convinced we will see any proper snow event over the next few days unless I'm looking at it all wrong it looks wrong side of marginal?

I agree, we need a big westward shift, stating the obvious I know but that's the fact!!

[khodds]

Night all. Not posted for a while but still watching. The 18z was one run. Looking fwd to the 00z runs. Hopefully we will all be smiling again tomorrow

[gottolovethisweather]

I would much preffer the risk to be higher monday than that, chances down here seam to be reducing ever so slightly each run.

only around 40% for here monday.

95% wednesday with 1 mm!!! tsk hardly enough to dust a christmas cake.

oh well we have downers and lets hope for some uppers!

Yes, I was mainly trying to silence the folk in the far Southwest even on that forecast the Scilly Isles has a risk of SNOW, ok only 18% or whatever it was, but we do not simply know where the BATTLEGROUND will be.

Indeed re: the impending week, do have a look at my posts from earlier, as to how I view things unfolding.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75507-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-january-11th-2013/page__st__380#entry2481149

and

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75507-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-january-11th-2013/page__st__460#entry2481432

[gottolovethisweather]

not totally correct Tony....If it's showing purple ppn echoes (ie frozen rain) then what it means is that temps at the 850hpa boundary are above freezing but surface temps are below freezing, or more specifically, ppn is falling through a layer of the atmosphere that has an ambient temp of above freezing, with a colder (below freezing) layer near the surface

Ok, I was kind of, sort of, somewhere near but anyway, I'll read that in the morning when I have a sober brain.

Our friend is back, I see.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[latitude]

Yes, I was mainly trying to silence the folk in the far Southwest even on that forecast the Scilly Isles has a risk of SNOW, ok only 18% or whatever it was, but we do not simply know where the BATTLEGROUND will be.

Indeed re: the impending week, do have a look at my posts from earlier, as to how I view things unfolding.

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2481149

and

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2481432

Going by the 18z your location of Berkshire is the battle ground. Further west its damp.

[Erbyskerby]

"Silence the folk in the far southwest" - gtltw?!?

You'll never do it I tell ye

(Cornish maid)

;-)

[gottolovethisweather]

Going by the 18z your location of Berkshire is the battle ground. Further west its damp.

I did look at run TBF, but whilst I would bite your arm off for that to be true I suppose, I firmly it will be much further West than that. In fact, that is pretty much how fergieweather views things currently AFAIK. With the atmosphere being so volatile at this stage, it is pointless second guessing nature but if I did, I would stick with the Cornwall/Devon border being somewhere near the battleground mark when the interesting events unfold.

"Silence the folk in the far southwest" - gtltw?!?

You'll never do it I tell ye

(Cornish maid)

;-)

I didn't literally mean silence you, but rather silence your worst fears, I guess is what I really meant.

How's your patch now, are there still flooded fields around?

As for your patch and my views on the coming week, have a gander at my summaries linked above.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Bristawl Si]

I did look at run TBF, but whilst I would bite your arm off for that to be true I suppose, I firmly it will be much further West than that. In fact, that is pretty much how fergieweather views things currently AFAIK. With the atmosphere being so volatile at this stage, it is pointless second guessing nature but if I did, I would stick with the Cornwall/Devon border being somewhere near the battleground mark when the interesting events unfold.

I didn't literally mean silence you, but rather silence your worst fears, I guess is what I really meant.

How's your patch now, are there still flooded fields around?

I'll happily take a westward shift.

After reading the mod disc thread just now it felt like it is game over for us but maybe further twists & turns to come then.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Bristle boy

[dancing daisy]

ok, not as risque, but just as sexist....One thing I've noticed about dating is it's so hard to find the right person these days.

All I want is a woman who loves long walks on the beach.

It'll give her something to do whilst I watch football.

yes, I'm setting a very bad example on posting ettiquette for the thread...so, with that in mind, back on topic.....erm......it's winter out there!

This made me laugh a lot!

All I want from a man is someone to do the ironing whilst I go out & get drunk. Not a lot to ask is it!

Edited for weather chat...ummm bit rainy isn't it.

Edited January 11, 2013 by dancing daisy

[gottolovethisweather]

Righty ho, almost time for sleep and yikes it's nearly midnight.

Tomorrow, I will look forward to more jokes from AJ, further sound analysis from the likes of AWD, Iceberg Slim, fergieweather and others and another night to hit the bottle should our dreams not be realised.