South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[dec10snow]

Hi guys! Read through the pages I've missed, and had to catch up on, in the last couple of hours!

So, the GFS has had some westward corrections as I understand. Always good to see!

But I'm confused as to where the snow boundary currently looks like, so what do you guys think its like for Taunton? Thanks guys

Oh, and chucking it down here at the moment!

Edited January 11, 2013 by dec10snow

[AWD]

Thanks AWD, the NMM 12z looks pants for tomorrow it has to be said.

Not a good sign, just looks like cold rain to me but perhaps I'm missing some key ingredient.

The coldest UPPERS just don't seem to come in towards Central Southern england until 9pm or so and its past midnight before it reaches your patch and even later further South.

Sorry for putting a bit of a downer on things but it does seem we haven't got the coldest air entrenched in time for tomorrow's event.

Tomorrows "possible" event was always a bit iffy to me. Hence why I've skipped tomorrow and focused on Monday.

Still, in these kind of set ups, the unexpected does happen. It's happened before and it will happen again.

[dec10snow]

Thanks for the post(s) AWD!

Edited January 11, 2013 by dec10snow

[DanDorsetUK]

Woah next wednesday and thursday is our time people! Wont take much for the chanel low slip north!

[kumquat]

Well nobody in England sees snow tomorrow according to 18z NAE so we're all in the crap together

[suxer]

This run drives the front through quicker than previous runs;

A couple of snapshots for basic guidance;

NMM or NAE?

I don't know of an actual, current observation.

All these snow risk maps show us the cusp of snow most times please post when were all in the pink

[A.J]

Consider myself banned.

Come on AJ, liven us up and me. Tell us a good JOKE.

funny you should mention it....interesting thing happened today....I joined a site after seeing a pop up saying 'Meet Lots Of Women In Your Area For Sex Tonight'..

The next stage of the application said 'Please Choose: 18-25, 26-33, 34-42, 43-49, Over 50'

I've gone for 43-49 women, over 50 is just being greedy.

lol

[AWD]

Hmmm....... 18z NAE decidedly dodgy too by Sunday evening with the cold air retreating fast;

The rollercoaster is still well and truly going folks!

But it does bring the PPN down sooner as well do that could balance it out slightly;

That's Sunday evening, so it could be as early as Sunday night here.

Will be very interesting tomorrow!

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[DanDorsetUK]

Ok im pretty sure after this run all of us sometime next week will see some snow how much will be another matter

[Chris K]

Mondays snow 'event' reminds me so much of early Feb 2012 where even though there was small shifts west, then east, then west etc etc, settling snow stayed further East with only slush here north of Bristol on the ground for about 1 hour. However I won't write it off yet as it changes each run and small shifts can make or break us

Later next week looks very interesting on GFS 18z...chilly! haha...time will tell

Edited January 11, 2013 by Chris K

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Ok im pretty sure after this run all of us sometime next week will see some snow how much will be another matter

Really hope you're right!!!

[fergieweather]

Thanks AWD, the NMM 12z looks pants for tomorrow it has to be said.

Not a good sign, just looks like cold rain to me but perhaps I'm missing some key ingredient.

The coldest UPPERS just don't seem to come in towards Central Southern england until 9pm or so and its past midnight before it reaches your patch and even later further South.

Sorry for putting a bit of a downer on things but it does seem we haven't got the coldest air entrenched in time for tomorrow's event.

NMM?! Where is that employed outside of US?!

Key ingredients of tomorrow's story into later PM will be missing from most models, including radiative cooling and other nuances conducive to enhancing wintry ppn likelihood.

Meanwhile, we continue for Mon-Tues event as primarily an issue (re snow) effectively Bristol/Bath eastwards, based on EPS from EC, plus snow probs vIa MOGREPS & UKMO-GM (and 4km derivatives). However, we anticipate further model flux especially re occluding warm sector's areal coverage and some broader timing issues. Latest FAX a reasonable middle ground steer for now.

[DanDorsetUK]

Not good for long cold vortex really powers up the jet!!

[AWD]

NMM?! Where is that employed outside of US?!

Key ingredients of tomorrow's story into later PM will be missing from most models, including radiative cooling and other nuances conducive to enhancing wintry ppn likelihood.

Meanwhile, we continue for Mon-Tues event as primarily an issue (re snow) effectively Bristol/Bath eastwards, based on EPS from EC, plus snow probs vIa MOGREPS & UKMO-GM (and 4km derivatives). However, we anticipate further model flux especially re occluding warm sector's areal coverage and some broader timing issues. Latest FAX a reasonable middle ground steer for now.

Do you expect Bristol/Bath/South Gloucs etc to be added to the yellow warning tomorrow or not?

[A.J]

NMM?! Where is that employed outside of US?!

Key ingredients of tomorrow's story into later PM will be missing from most models, including radiative cooling and other nuances conducive to enhancing wintry ppn likelihood.

Meanwhile, we continue for Mon-Tues event as primarily an issue (re snow) effectively Bristol/Bath eastwards, based on EPS from EC, plus snow probs vIa MOGREPS & UKMO-GM (and 4km derivatives). However, we anticipate further model flux especially re occluding warm sector's areal coverage and some broader timing issues. Latest FAX a reasonable middle ground steer for now.

Blimey, don't tell Paul that!...

[gottolovethisweather]

funny you should mention it....interesting thing happened today....I joined a site after seeing a pop up saying 'Meet Lots Of Women In Your Area For Sex Tonight'..

The next stage of the application said 'Please Choose: 18-25, 26-33, 34-42, 43-49, Over 50'

I've gone for 43-49 women, over 50 is just being greedy.

lol

What is sex. I might have to google it.

There's only way this conversation is going right now, so I best stop talking out of my

[kumquat]

NMM as in here? http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-3452-new-nmm-hi-res-forecast-model-for-the-uk/

Not something I've used.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hmmm!!! Not looking good for Devon and Cornwall yet again. Even early to middle of next week looks pretty dire.

Anybody got any straws I can clutch?

[lynnsim]

What is sex. I might have to google it.

There's only way this conversation is going right now, so I best stop talking out of my

Very nearly spat my coffee out all over my laptop then!!! Thanks for that laugh!

[DanDorsetUK]

Well a few snow for most of the uk during next week including us but noring to shout about for us south westerners unless we get a chanel low creep up

Edited January 11, 2013 by Rapodo

[A.J]

What is sex. I might have to google it.

There's only way this conversation is going right now, so I best stop talking out of my

ok, not as risque, but just as sexist....One thing I've noticed about dating is it's so hard to find the right person these days.

All I want is a woman who loves long walks on the beach.

It'll give her something to do whilst I watch football.

yes, I'm setting a very bad example on posting ettiquette for the thread...so, with that in mind, back on topic.....erm......it's winter out there!

[DanDorsetUK]

Hmmm!!! Not looking good for Devon and Cornwall yet again. Even early to middle of next week looks pretty dire.

Anybody got any straws I can clutch?

Nothing but light dustings at the moment

[gottolovethisweather]

NMM?! Where is that employed outside of US?!

Key ingredients of tomorrow's story into later PM will be missing from most models, including radiative cooling and other nuances conducive to enhancing wintry ppn likelihood.

Meanwhile, we continue for Mon-Tues event as primarily an issue (re snow) effectively Bristol/Bath eastwards, based on EPS from EC, plus snow probs vIa MOGREPS & UKMO-GM (and 4km derivatives). However, we anticipate further model flux especially re occluding warm sector's areal coverage and some broader timing issues. Latest FAX a reasonable middle ground steer for now.

Thanks fergieweather. Pass on the NMM question and of course, I simply used the NMM as a guide for folk on here, having nowhere near the same computing power and tools you possess of course.

I especially like the sound of your interpretation of Monday and Tuesday and you do appear to be keeping up some of our hopes for tomorrow, so thanks again.

As is often stated, these are truly fascinating times but very dificult times too, for the forecasting authorities.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[DanDorsetUK]

Couple of possible showers blown our way from the north east during wednesday or thursday but nothing to shout about

Edited January 11, 2013 by Rapodo

[Stoxs]

No one should be dismissing the chance of seeing snow in the next 5-7 days.

Have you ever tried playing pin the tail on the donkey? whilst drunk , blind folded and a very small donkey!

well that would be easyer than predicting if any snow will be in any part of the uk let alone 200miles or so.

relax enjoy the ride and be pleased if it comes off.

keep watching the experts on here as the situation will change