South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[gottolovethisweather]

Here's another reason to enjoy the potential, in my opinion.

Comparing GEFS 12z ensembles three days ago to today's run.

I will split the country into three. EAST, CENTRAL SOUTHERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST.

Firstly looking EAST, London Precipitation means and associated T850s from the 8th and 11th January respectively.

IMO, best chances of SNOW come about on the Saturday 12th January and Tuesday 15th January in the vicinity of London as things stand. I feel using purely estimation factors, the total accumulation will be in the range of 2 to 4 inches. There are wintry enough Uppers right through to the 19th January.

Now the CENTRAL SOUTHERN region as an example, using Berkshire Precipitation means and associated T850s from the 8th and 11th January respectively.

IMO, best chances of SNOW come about on the Tuesday 15th January, Wednesday 16th January and possibly Saturday 19th January in the vicinity of Berkshire as things stand. I feel using purely estimation factors, the total accumulation will be in the range of 3 to 5 inches. Here too, I suggest there are wintry enough Uppers right through to the 19th January.

Now the FAR SOUTH WESTERN region as an example, using Cornwall Precipitation means and associated T850s from the 8th and 11th January respectively. *I only have the Precipitation figures for today's 12z but it matters not.

IMO, best chances of SNOW come about from the Tuesday 15th January to Friday 18th January in the vicinity of Cornwall as things stand. I feel using purely estimation factors, the total accumulation will be in the range of 6 to 9 inches. Here, I suggest there are wintry enough Uppers right through from to the Tuesday 15th January to Friday 18th January.

Make of the above what you like, but I would suggest as things stand anywhere West of West Wiltshire and down into parts of Cornwall will be on the BATTLEGROUND boundary as the coming week unfolds.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Iceberg]

Circa Bristol westward barring elevation

Good news if the meto had it Bristol westward before the 12z out put.

It will be interesting to see where the folks at Exeter put it later tonight at the next conflab. Taunton maybe ?

[A.J]

.... Not forgetting yourself and gottolovetheweather of course...

*Ahem*....lol..........providing of course you don't want any future posts being deleted on sight...lol

[latitude]

Here's another reason to enjoy the potential, in my opinion.

Comparing GEFS 12z ensembles three days ago to today's run.

I will split the country into three. EAST, CENTRAL SOUTHERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST.

Firstly looking EAST, London Precipitation means and associated T850s from the 8th and 11th January respectively.

IMO, best chances of SNOW come about on the Saturday 12th January and Tuesday 15th January as things stand. I feel using purely estimation factors, the total accumulation will be in the range of 2 to 4 inches. There are wintry enough Uppers right through to the 19th January.

Now the CENTRAL SOUTHERN region as an example, using Berkshire Precipitation means and associated T850s from the 8th and 11th January respectively.

IMO, best chances of SNOW come about on the Tuesday 15th January, Wednesday 16th January and possibly Saturday 19th January as things stand. I feel using purely estimation factors, the total accumulation will be in the range of 3 to 5 inches. Here too, I suggest there are wintry enough Uppers right through to the 19th January.

Now the FAR SOUTH WESTERN region as an example, using Cornwall Precipitation means and associated T850s from the 8th and 11th January respectively. *I only have the Precipitation figures for today's 12z but it matters not.

IMO, best chances of SNOW come about from the Tuesday 15th January to Friday 18th January as things stand. I feel using purely estimation factors, the total accumulation will be in the range of 6 to 9 inches. Here, I suggest there are wintry enough Uppers right through from to the Tuesday 15th January to Friday 18th January.

Make of the above what you like, but I would suggest as things stand anywhere West of West Wiltshire and down into parts of Cornwall will be on the BATTLEGROUND boundary as the coming week unfolds.

Nice post. But still think your nowhere near me, AWD or our Ian

[Nights King]

Good news if the meto had it Bristol westward before the 12z out put.

It will be interesting to see where the folks at Exeter put it later tonight at the next conflab. Taunton maybe ?

Directly on same line as bristol although about 15 miles south.

Right peeps I'm off to the pub for a few beverages I might try and forget about next run and just jump in mid night to get the latest.

[dancing daisy]

Ok what's going on with GFS, just taken op to look through charts on NW and not a happy Daisy. Where has the snow gone?

[latitude]

Ok what's going on with GFS, just taken op to look through charts on NW and not a happy Daisy. Where has the snow gone?

Daisey, where do you live?

[kernowman]

Hmmm Cornwall not getting much action. I think the last time I had snow (i live by the sea near Padstow) it came from a dangler (pembrokeshire dangler??). Not sure what sets those up though? Are they rare?

So mild here - my marigolds are still in flower from the summer!

The last dangler I can remember was Nov 25 2005, that was quite a day, yep they are as rare as hen's teeth I'm afraid.

Article about that day so we can see what we aren't going to get. http://www.bbc.co.uk/cornwall/content/articles/2005/11/26/snow_feature.shtml

Looks like us in Cornwall will miss out in the 1st wave of this cold period, just have to hope the cold lingers around and we get a 2nd chance later on.

Edited January 11, 2013 by kernowman

[Mapantz]

The problem here is only being 10m above sea level and being quite close to the coast (Poole harbour & Jurassic) it is likely to keep dew points above freezing despite being under cold uppers. i'd only have to travel to Bere Regis or Lytchett Matravers and they would probably have snow.

[Stoxs]

*Ahem*....lol..........providing of course you don't want any future posts being deleted on sight...lol

wots up Aj u got a nasty cought here, better keep out the cold and stay indoors for the next week!!

[gloucesterlad]

Latest Forecast:

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760862.stm

Thanks Beasterley :-)

John in Gloucester (Quedgeley - low down)

[Mumbles]

What's my chances of seeing any snow here in Sherborne, Dorset over the coming week please?!

[katemart]

Ok what's going on with GFS, just taken op to look through charts on NW and not a happy Daisy. Where has the snow gone?

Daisy, the nw snow risk charts haven't been updated since the 12Z - the upgrades weren't till later this afternoon, were they?

Yeh, same old 80% risk on Monday for my location. They should improve but I guess things are moving too quickly for them?

Edited January 11, 2013 by katemart

[dancing daisy]

Daisey, where do you live?

Bridgwater

Daisy, the nw snow risk charts haven't been updated since the 12Z - the upgrades weren't till later this afternoon, were they?

Ahhh, that's why the look so bleedin awful Thanks

Yeh, same old 80% risk on Monday for my location. They should improve but I guess things are moving too quickly for them?

What I said is in the middlle, sorry. Merlot blindness

Edited January 11, 2013 by dancing daisy

[latitude]

Bridgwater

Dont take my word for it, but at the moment your right on the borderline. A little further push west with cold uppers and you might be ok. Fingers crossed for you..........and everyone else...............even who is struggling with weather modeling.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

What's my chances of seeing any snow here in Sherborne, Dorset over the coming week please?!

Still quite marginal at the moment, i think bristol, eastwards at the moment, could go further west or east the snowline yet. might not even come to anything still quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment.

[dancing daisy]

Dont take my word for it, but at the moment your right on the borderline. A little further push west with cold uppers and you might be ok. Fingers crossed for you..........and everyone else...............even gottolovethisweather who is struggling with weather modeling.

Thanks Lovely! I have said all along that we will get snow Saturday night, probably only a little but...I reckon Monday night/Tuesday morning is our time. I just have a feeling.

[gottolovethisweather]

What's my chances of seeing any snow here in Sherborne, Dorset over the coming week please?!

Good, assuming you're inland enough in Sherbourne, not sure of it geographically. Any elevation will also help.

[Cakie]

Throwing it down here, if only this were snow

[Dorset Weather]

The problem here is only being 10m above sea level and being quite close to the coast (Poole harbour & Jurassic) it is likely to keep dew points above freezing despite being under cold uppers. i'd only have to travel to Bere Regis or Lytchett Matravers and they would probably have snow.

yeah I said the same thing to the Echo Mapants, 10 miles in land should do well, I should be alright in Blandford.

[divadee]

Just starting raining here. Very cold out but only rain.

Hoping for better next week.

[khodds]

Half an hour til the 18z folks... Please let there be westward correction! On my phone so relying on you guys tonight. I feel strangely calm for a change!

[AWD]

Half an hour til the 18z folks... Please let there be westward correction! On my phone so relying on you guys tonight. I feel strangely calm for a change!

Don't get too hung up on every run. There is always a bad apple amongst the good as they say.

[khodds]

Don't get too hung up on every run. There is always a bad apple amongst the good as they say.

I'm not just watching to see the next chapters unfolding - plus its fun watching the fall out on the MOD thread!

[latitude]

Just starting raining here. Very cold out but only rain.

Hoping for better next week.

7.1 here, mild.