South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[fergieweather]

Will 'up the cagyness' re Mon-Tues event in forecast tonight based on new advice. Much uncertainty.

[gottolovethisweather]

Cold weather alert released by the MetO for Monday is level 2....

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

What is doesn't say is that our patch aside from elevation has been relegated to a lower division of snow warnings due to the BATTLEGROUND ALL EYES WEST COUNTRY scenario.

In fact, I am loving the joyful feeling in here and I don't especially care for too much snowfall, just a wee bit will be good enough.

From this, I am NOT suggesting that I will lose ouy, but all along in a battleground scenario, you will have winners out EAST and winners out WEST.

Bring it on and also my cider.

[Dampdorset82]

Will 'up the cagyness' re Mon-Tues event in forecast tonight based on new advice. Much uncertainty.

This set up must be causing some real head aches at the met tonight with regards to warnings. In your opinion and not the mets how do you see things playing out for our region?

[Snowmadsam]

Will 'up the cagyness' re Mon-Tues event in forecast tonight based on new advice. Much uncertainty.

haha...adding some more snowflakes to those charts Ian

[AWD]

Will 'up the cagyness' re Mon-Tues event in forecast tonight based on new advice. Much uncertainty.

I take it you consider a "westward shift" of this mornings forecast a possibility then?

Or did I read your post wrong!

[jethro]

Why don't we split into the smaller regionals anymore? Hope for some snow for the Isle of Wight Monday :-)

They've been kept bigger for a while because they were quiet with no really interesting weather in the offing. Currently, they're still being kept together, mainly for a couple of reasons - firstly because we've all got to know one another, everyone gets along and it would be a shame to split everyone up for the sake of a few miles, the banter from familiar voices is a big part of these regional's. Secondly, most people don't have a radar subscription - when snow is a possibility we all get excited, it's really useful to be able to gauge what's happening elsewhere. If the snow's coming from the West, those further East can tell whether or not they're likely to get some, how much and when, and the same applies going the opposite direction.

This may change if the thread is going too quickly for folk to keep up due to the volume of posts, but currently, there are no plans to split them.

[Beast of Plympton]

Generally speaking, yes. We all live in the mildest part of the country, some like you, live in one of the mildest bits of the mild SW. We pay the price of living where we do in the Winter, but we reap the rewards in the Summer. Occasionally we get lucky, more occasionally still, we get very lucky and get humungous snowfalls - these mammoth snow events are always as a result of bitterly cold air coming from the East/North East and bumping up against our usual wet weather systems coming up from the South West. The weather currently showing, and the possibilities next week, are good examples of mild and wet meeting cold and dry - wherever those two meet will get the most snow. The latest model run has shown the cold moving further West so we have more chance of it being snow for us, the next model run may show the complete opposite or an even further shift West. Genuinely, no one, nor any computer model can accurately say precisely where the two weather systems will meet, all we can do is wait and hope.

Think this is a very good and important explanation. Yes we live in a mild climate, and yes sometimes we need that extra little push from mother nature for the cold to arive here.

However, being ever the optimist, we are lucky in the sense that in this situation we are prone to battleground situations which can lead to massive snow events.

This is only IMO and please, if anybody brighter than me knows any different then I am happy to learn!

Ian

[gottolovethisweather]

Has the snow got something against the south west?....my hopes are Monday now and maybe a very light sprinkle on Saturday in Devon 😊

or whatever will be, will be and personally, I still think you have every chance of something wintry real soon. Please god, do not bring back the miserable downpours leading to miserable flooding because I can see there being many more miserable posts from you and some other folk, who tend to hide it better.

Good luck.

[fergieweather]

haha...adding some more snowflakes to those charts Ian

Not using charts that far ahead. Too uncertain on critical nuances.

[Chris K]

I take it you consider a "westward shift" of this mornings forecast a possibility then?

Or did I read your post wrong!

Hmm I read it as that it's not necessarily saying that it will move further west or that people will miss out or anything, but rather because it seems like one of those very marginal scenarios with regards to where the most favorable conditions for snow will be, particularly for parts of SW and W Country. Hence the added uncertainty and I'd imagine reluctance to say who will/won't get what.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Chris K

[divadee]

I can see arguments for splitting the threads again, but as I'm in the middle I have to flit between the two anyway! And also I like the madness that pervades this thread!

We all love our cider/wine (delete as appropriate) and is the nicest regional on NW 😻

[gottolovethisweather]

Why don't we split into the smaller regionals anymore? Hope for some snow for the Isle of Wight Monday :-)

Hi pompylee,

It has been looked at but as we are generally such a happy bunch, it has been decided to leave be so far.

[Snowmadsam]

Not using charts that far ahead. Too uncertain on critical nuances.

hehe...yes with so much uncertainty it may be best. It will be interesting to see if the ECM holds its streak as it done yesterday evening.

[Iceberg]

ECM Says a Shift west at T72 with a small colder warm sector and the boarder now over DEVON.......

YES YES YES !!!

[iowpompeylee]

Do you think Ian's comments mean a more rain event for everyone on Monday night or more of a snow event,?

Edited January 11, 2013 by iowpompeylee

[Chris K]

Do you think Ian's comments mean a more rain event for everyone on Monday night or more of a snow event,?

Don't think he means any. Not wanting to put words in Ian's mouth, but I think he means it in a sense of that its still to far away to determine what certain areas will get until models continue to firm up.

[AWD]

ECM Says a Shift west at T72 with a small colder warm sector and the boarder now over DEVON.......

YES YES YES !!!

That mild sector is much less pronounced here.

GAME ON PEEPS. We have had some encouraging model output tonight. We can't complain at all. Hopefully the media forecast might reflect this come the morning.

A very happy AWD!

[jethro]

Think this is a very good and important explanation. Yes we live in a mild climate, and yes sometimes we need that extra little push from mother nature for the cold to arive here.

However, being ever the optimist, we are lucky in the sense that in this situation we are prone to battleground situations which can lead to massive snow events.

This is only IMO and please, if anybody brighter than me knows any different then I am happy to learn!

Ian

Why thank you kind Sir

You're not wrong in your assessment, this is how we get those mammoth snowfalls, some of the greatest ever snowfalls have been recorded in Cornwall and from the exact same battle of opposing forces we currently see.

[Iceberg]

JMA has the border over the cornish/devon border and BOM over the Devon/Somerset boarder.

Considerable shift west now, with GFS the most easterly, but GEFS and all the other models pushing it further west giving snow now monday to a large part of the SW...

Probably time for me to sign off now as i dont want to go any further than monday and monday looks as good as good be expected at this stage.

[iowpompeylee]

By the way this is a nice thread with nice people.just asking about smaller regionals.but very happy with it this way :-)

Edited January 11, 2013 by iowpompeylee

[AWD]

Next step of interest, the FAX charts. These have human interaction from Exeter, so we will get to see the view of the Met Office and what they think about the 12z data in these.

[Marcus_surfer]

JMA has the border over the cornish/devon border and BOM over the Devon/Somerset boarder.

Considerable shift west now, with GFS the most easterly, but GEFS and all the other models pushing it further west giving snow now monday to a large part of the SW...

Probably time for me to sign off now as i dont want to go any further than monday and monday looks as good as good be expected at this stage.

We need this trend to continue and maybe even shift a bit further west just to make sure we are all in the firing line...Still a lot to play for in Western and Southwestern areas.

[AWD]

Nice;

[Beast of Plympton]

Why thank you kind Sir

You're not wrong in your assessment, this is how we get those mammoth snowfalls, some of the greatest ever snowfalls have been recorded in Cornwall and from the exact same battle of opposing forces we currently see.

You are welcome Jethro.... Glad I was right, means im learning!!

ECM from what I can tell pushing further west.... what will happen? Who knows... my son is watching the snowman and his snowdog at the moment, seems he is as obsessed with snow as I am!!

[Frosty_wsm]

considering the steady westerly correction today on the models, and Monday's event still 3 days away, I wouldn't be surprised to see this westerly movement continue right up to the event itself.