South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Iceberg]

Re a snow rain snow event the models always struggle with these as they underplay the transition from rain to snow and don't take into account the cooling effect of the first lot of snow on the atmosphere particularly the lower segments

It normally translates at he very worst to snow sleet snow or snow snizzle snow

Yep the ECM need to follow on pretty confident of a further shift west though so not too worried about that

[Frosty_wsm]

C'mon weather gods, give me a classic 80s low pressure attack at just the right angle so that it stalls over the south west and dumps a shed load of the white stuff on us all, surely I'm not asking for too much

[AWD]

GFS Dewpoints Monday evening;

Marginal.

GFS WBFL Monday evening;

Suggests a small bit of elevation may be needed. Mullender will be fine though!

GFS Thickness';

That's fine!

[dec10snow]

Good luck!

UKMO is what we want guys. This would give us heavy snow Monday and further snowfall midweek.

Altogether now, BANK the UKMO.

Go UKMO! When's it's next run?

[Mapantz]

Some stonking runs for snow (away from the south west unfortunately) and the UKMO is a beaut! That would hold on to the cold longer.

[caz100]

As I am right down near bottom of Cornwall, and I am thinking we wont see any, plz plz plz put pics up with happy smiles throwing snowballs, so we can join in and smile with you in your fun thanks ..

[Beast of Plympton]

That's going to be me in my trusty old Landrover next week.

Lets hope so Jethro!!

[AWD]

GME isn't bad either at T72. Cold uppers over much of the region;

Go UKMO! When's it's next run?

04.15am.

Be there!

[Lynxus]

GME isn't bad either at T72. Cold uppers over much of the region;

04.15am.

Be there!

Oh lord... Maybe I should go out tonight just to keep me awake ready to read the 4:15 with a kebab

[jethro]

If some of you are finding all these ups and downs are getting to you, if you lay awake at night dreaming of 3 foot of snow and tormented by it's absence, I've found something which may help you sleep, or at the very least sooth your troubles....

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?q=one+night+cough+syrup&num=10&hl=en&tbo=d&biw=1600&bih=898&tbm=isch&tbnid=BeH084J8r9rdtM:&imgrefurl=http://pinterest.com/pin/217017275764812469/&docid=H54JB5xMxu5NOM&imgurl=http://media-cache0.pinterest.com/upload/203858320602328949_qSGMY8OS_c.jpg&w=400&h=300&ei=V0HwUJnEBKPG0QXY74Fw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=147&vpy=126&dur=355&hovh=194&hovw=258&tx=160&ty=107&sig=116756314030200072203&page=1&tbnh=135&tbnw=177&start=0&ndsp=43&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0,i:85

[AWD]

Someone on the MOD thread said the GEM is awful and nowhere near as snowy, so I thought ummm..... I'll have a look.

The GEM stalls the front over the west and keeps the cold upper air over the country, the front doesn't get past the W Country, leaving the bulk of central & Eastern England dry, but providing Western England & Wales with persistent snow on Monday into Tuesday. The GEM is good for us, but it will be described as crap in the MOD thread because its a western event!

[dec10snow]

04.15am.

Be there!

Oh okay! Somehow, I don't think I will, after staying up the last couple of nights till around 11 to see the latest runs, only to have to get up at 7 in the morning ready for school!

[Lynxus]

Someone on the MOD thread said the GEM is awful and nowhere near as snowy, so I thought ummm..... I'll have a look.

The GEM stalls the front over the west and keeps the cold upper air over the country, the front doesn't get past the W Country, leaving the bulk of central & Eastern England dry, but providing Western England & Wales with persistent snow on Monday into Tuesday. The GEM is good for us, but it will be described as crap in the MOD thread because its a western event!

This is why people need to take what the MOD people say with a pinch of salt. The forum is somewhat governed by them pesky easterners lol

Im confident we are about to have some great weather!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Lynxus

[Karl83]

I appreciate your input AWD as always (And everyone else's btw)! I am praying for snow Monday.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Karl83

[latitude]

the GEM is what we want. The front stalls across the SW.

[AWD]

This is why we need the GFS to do another westward shift, or at least eradicate the mild sector associated with the shortwave;

[offerman]

Great video by Peter Gibbs about SSW and how that affects models.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173

[khodds]

Got a feeling we may see another westwards shift. It seems to happen quite often. Fingers crossed!

[124alex]

any recent updates from Ian?

[Frosty_wsm]

C'mon weather gods, give me a classic 80s low pressure attack at just the right angle so that it stalls over the south west and dumps a shed load of the white stuff on us all, surely I'm not asking for too much

Maybe I should do that more often lol, I post that and then look at the GEM lol, oh and has anyone else noticed how often the GEM looks alot like the ecm which comes out an hour or so later

[AWD]

any recent updates from Ian?

Just this;

"W COUNTRY Rain turning more readily to snow tomorrow late afternoon/eve for many areas; some settling above 150-200m likely but light: 1-2cm"

[Bristawl Si]

Trends fellow south westerners, trends indeedy!

Patience required - come west dear models, because we are best!

All to play for!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Bristle boy

[latitude]

This is why we need the GFS to do another westward shift, or at least eradicate the mild sector associated with the shortwave;

Thats so funny. 'SW, YOUR NAMES NOT DOWN, YOUR NOT COMING IN'!

[lfcdude]

Ian Fergusson @ Fergieweather

. Who Knows We use EC, UKMO-GM & MOGREPS as Steer " @AndrewDodd3 : @ Fergieweather Meaning the GFS SHOULD West as we move back slightly Closer? "

Ukmo

[jtay]

Great video by Peter Gibbs about SSW and how that affects models.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20992173

That is very good. It also turns out that Peter Gibbs is God.

Who'd have thought it.