South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Kiwi]

Aww Comon Guys lets have some in here and not

You could always pop over to the SE Regional thread it is party central in there at the moment......and yes that includes you Quentin (Dorsetbred)

SE Regional thread?? ..... I could jump ship...being in the east of our region.

But I'm sticking here and expect a more upbeat outlook when the models start to move in the Southwest's favour. They seem to be having a real problem with the jet at the moment but a weakening/more southerly track will sort us out ...no worries.

PS; Just had a quick peak at the SE thread ....far too jovial ....I suspect they're all posting from the pub, what with it being Poets day.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Kiwi

[jessandjon]

I'm not writing off the cold. I'm saying Wareham is usually snowless and it looks like being the same again.

I've only had three events since 1994 where snow has been lying for more than 12 hours. :|

Try none on the ground for more than half a day that I remember and I am 27 next week!!!

But on the other hand it WILL be our turn one day :-)

[theprophecyman]

_{I'm hoping the 12Z shunts everything westwards and wipes the smiles of the SE forum, now that would make my day}

Edited January 11, 2013 by theprophecyman

[Snow shut work]

BBC forecasts on iPlayer are ropey to say the least for our area.

It'll be a case of watching the Rainfall radars as opposed to viewing forecasts as in this type of set up it's difficult to forecast the white stuff.

Hopefully the colder air, wet bulbs and dewpoints will be low enough when the precip on Monday arrives.

Darren Betts thinks not and has Somerset in 8C. Joker!!!! Even Gloucester is at 6C, surely they are over-egging the temps as they don't even know if there will be the slightest bit of settled snow keeping the temps down.

[Mapantz]

Try none on the ground for more than half a day that I remember and I am 27 next week!!!

But on the other hand it WILL be our turn one day :-)

Yup, fingers crossed!

I still think there's better potential later on in the month and in to February than there is in the next seven days.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Nah sorry, least snowy place is here in sunny Southsea

Gorgeous day today, clear blue sky & sunshine & 9.5C after a minimum of 6C

Met Office still down as just rain for here, but at least 10 day potential minimum temperatures have dropped, showing a bone chilling possible -1C here now

[Bristawl Si]

All to play for. Read my post from a couple of hours ago.

Details will chop and change - and in these situs the chopping and changing will likely be right up to the last minute!

Forget the models predictions for next 7 days - everyday's a nowcast IMO.

These 'battleground' scenarios don't always favour one area each day.

If most of this thread's areas stay in less cold air next week we'll be right unlucky.

The only downside i can see at the mo is that we haven't had a few days of a strong block to our East or NE to get entrenched cold (and not likely to - it's a bit 'flabby' so to speak).

Can't get that 1st week of Feb 2009 out of my head at the mo.

[Paul Sherman]

_{I'm hoping the 12Z shunts everything westwards and wipes the smiles of the SE forum, now that would make my day}

Yh a shift west would be great for all, not only would it allow battle ground scenarios for the SW But it would pull in a much better East North Easterly for huge snow showers for the SE.

FWIW I still think the SW Has a very good chance mainly from Monday to Wednesday with first the Precip moving down from the North West and depending how entrenched the cold can become, you will always be favoured for the Battleground scenario!

[cerneman]

_{I'm hoping the 12Z shunts everything westwards and wipes the smiles of the SE forum, now that would make my day}

Living in the South East region, The poor devils need something to brighten up there lives, Don't begrudge them there moment of pleasure

[Coast]

_{I'm hoping the 12Z shunts everything westwards and wipes the smiles of the SE forum, now that would make my day}

Thanks for sharing!

[latitude]

Yh a shift west would be great for all, not only would it allow battle ground scenarios for the SW But it would pull in a much better East North Easterly for huge snow showers for the SE.

FWIW I still think the SW Has a very good chance mainly from Monday to Wednesday with first the Precip moving down from the North West and depending how entrenched the cold can become, you will always be favoured for the Battleground scenario!

We had a slight shift on the 06z, so lets hope the short wave drops down the country in an even better position.

[Methuselah]

Thanks for sharing!

That's okay.When we have our thundersnow on Tuesday, we'll post some pics in here.

[Bofh]

fingers crossed for something i'm getting bored with "just another week" which seems to be the way. Its always just another week it seems.

[fUnKy]

Just got back from three weeks in the south east to the south west. Looks like i missed anything that might happen again!

Plymouth has it's perks but when i move out of this place I am definitely going to be looking at those snow day charts first!

[dancing daisy]

Blimey you depressing bunch of so and so's.

I don't know, a girl gives her class some free time because they deserve it, (not to check on NW, oh no!) and I read your wrist slashing posts....

It WILL snow.

[coffee lover]

Blimey you depressing bunch of so and so's.

I don't know, a girl gives her class some free time because they deserve it, (not to check on NW, oh no!) and I read your wrist slashing posts....

It WILL snow.

Love your positive thinking Daisy

[khodds]

Blimey! Thought I was in the MOD thread for a mo there.. Wrist slashing and its not even happened yet! Come on peeps positive thoughts

Edited January 11, 2013 by khodds

[kumquat]

850 temps not looking particularly favourable for us tomorrow evening on the latest 12z NAE:

Just some wintriness on the Welsh mountains at this stage:

Let's see what the later frames bring..and of course, the other model's 12Zs

It can all change at the drop of a hat in these situations, though, as BB highlighted. Pretty much a case of nowcasting in these setups and plenty of variability across geographical region, altitude etc etc.

Quite a steep pressure gradient on the north side of the low which might help drag in colder uppers as it passes through later??

528 DAM just over Bristol after midnight.

Edited January 11, 2013 by kumquat

[Chris K]

Such a common occurence. The edge of favourable conditions aka 'snow line' is forecast right over my area haha. I wrote about this yesterday. In these situations I usually end up with rain with snow a few miles North of me. Of course...it will change for better or worse when it comes to snow.

My wishful thinking is hoping that this is all a transitional period into something more exciting late January as GP has been alluding to..... who knows? I think we will be very very unlucky to have no snow by winters end.

Stay positive

Edited January 11, 2013 by Chris K

[AWD]

850 temps not looking particularly favourable for us tomorrow evening on the latest 12z NAE:

Just some wintriness on the Welsh mountains at this stage:

Let's see what the later frames bring..and of course, the other model's 12Zs

It can all change at the drop of a hat in these situations, though, as BB highlighted. Pretty much a case of nowcasting in these setups and plenty of variability across geographical region, altitude etc etc.

Quite a steep pressure gradient on the north side of the low which might help drag in colder uppers as it passes through later??

528 DAM just over Bristol after midnight.

The one interesting thing (and straw-clutching admittedly) I can see with the NAE is the 48 hour frame.

Compare the 48 NAE thickness' frame, which is for midday Sunday, with the equivalent 54 06z GFS thickness' frame for the same time and you'll notice the GFS (Which incidentally was good for snowfall on Monday) has the 522DAM line touching Swindon/Newbury, where as the NAE has it touching Bath!

[Bristawl Si]

The one interesting thing (and straw-clutching admittedly) I can see with the NAE is the 48 hour frame.

Compare the 48 NAE thickness' frame, which is for midday Sunday, with the equivalent 54 06z GFS thickness' frame for the same time and you'll notice the GFS (Which incidentally was good for snowfall on Monday) has the 522DAM line touching Swindon/Newbury, where as the NAE has it touching Bath!

Good point AWD.

However, i'm not convinced the NAE is always better than GFS at the shortest timeframes when it comes to the 'actual'.

BUT as i said in an earlier post the situ seems quite dynamic, although latest Beeb forecast i just watched seemed to indicate growing trend away from cold/snow in our neck of the woods, even for early next week.

Let's hope it changes back!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Bristle boy

[kumquat]

The one interesting thing (and straw-clutching admittedly) I can see with the NAE is the 48 hour frame.

Compare the 48 NAE thickness' frame, which is for midday Sunday, with the equivalent 54 06z GFS thickness' frame for the same time and you'll notice the GFS (Which incidentally was good for snowfall on Monday) has the 522DAM line touching Swindon/Newbury, where as the NAE has it touching Bath!

Indeed. And the 850 temps on the 48hr frame are looking much better generally in the region which bodes well for the ppn that will hopefully encroach on Monday. Not bad:

[AWD]

Good point AWD.

However, i'm not convinced the NAE is always better than GFS at the shortest timeframes when it comes to the 'actual'.

BUT as i said in an earlier post the situ seems quite dynamic, although latest Beeb forecast i just watched seemed to indicate growing trend away from cold/snow in our neck of the woods, even for early next week.

Let's hope it changes back!

The NAE should be better as its ran at a higher resolution, but as you say, it doesn't always work out like that.

12z data rolling out now. Will we take a step forward or a step back in our quest for the holy grail?

And incidentally, were comparing the NAE with the 06z GFS run, which was reasonably good with regards to Monday for us. Compare the NAE with the 0z GFS for midday Sunday, and the difference is even more noticeable.

Anyway, still too early to use the NAE for Monday really yet. The track of the LP is just as important as the westward extent of cold air.

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[kumquat]

Good point AWD.

However, i'm not convinced the NAE is always better than GFS at the shortest timeframes when it comes to the 'actual'.

BUT as i said in an earlier post the situ seems quite dynamic, although latest Beeb forecast i just watched seemed to indicate growing trend away from cold/snow in our neck of the woods, even for early next week.

Let's hope it changes back!

That's right BB, we've all seen incidences of the NAE being pretty poor. Hopefully Ian F will keep us up-to-date with the latest.

[AWD]

I can already tell you there isn't going to be a westward correction on the GFS run, eastwards if anything.

Onto the other models.

13:00 Monday on the 06z;

13:00 Monday on the 12z;

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD