South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Polar Bear]

Cold weather alert released by the MetO for Monday is level 2....

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[katemart]

Southampton City Council have just posted a link to their school closures webpage on FriendFace

Beautiful day here today but getting chilly now and humidity increasing. Looking forward to netweather updating their local forecasts with the latest *** [insert appropriate acronym here] information.

[TwisterGirl81]

Has the snow got something against the south west?....my hopes are Monday now and maybe a very light sprinkle on Saturday in Devon 😊

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Sooooo can anyone say whether us on th iow will see any? They r saying widespread snow in th mod thread but I hav no idea if we're in with a shot or whether it's rain for us? I'll be seriously gutted if we miss out

[Bristawl Si]

Has the snow got something against the south west?....my hopes are Monday now and maybe a very light sprinkle on Saturday in Devon 😊

With the situ as it is 2/3 days is a long time at the mo, in weather (and model) terms.

Believe me it really is.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Just this;

"W COUNTRY Rain turning more readily to snow tomorrow late afternoon/eve for many areas; some settling above 150-200m likely but light: 1-2cm"

At 159m might see a flake then////

[jtay]

Southampton City Council have just posted a link to their school closures webpage on FriendFace

Are you feeling lucky for Monday Katemart? The Meto warning boundary goes straight through Lordswood.

[Wilxy]

The ensembles tonight suggest a stronger signal for high pressure build near uk later next week.

[AWD]

The ensembles tonight suggest a stronger signal for high pressure build near uk later next week.

Hopefully that's after we've all been buried with the white stuff. :p

[gottolovethisweather]

Some have thrown the towel in by the sounds of it and writing off the potential cold! Things can change yet.......

Wheres 'gotolovethisweather'?

Or is it just me he bullys?

I'm back and I advise not bully.

How are things now, just before the MetO and ECM runs roll.

And I before roll onto the alcohol induced posts and start dancing on tables.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[jethro]

Has the snow got something against the south west?....my hopes are Monday now and maybe a very light sprinkle on Saturday in Devon 😊

Generally speaking, yes. We all live in the mildest part of the country, some like you, live in one of the mildest bits of the mild SW. We pay the price of living where we do in the Winter, but we reap the rewards in the Summer. Occasionally we get lucky, more occasionally still, we get very lucky and get humungous snowfalls - these mammoth snow events are always as a result of bitterly cold air coming from the East/North East and bumping up against our usual wet weather systems coming up from the South West. The weather currently showing, and the possibilities next week, are good examples of mild and wet meeting cold and dry - wherever those two meet will get the most snow. The latest model run has shown the cold moving further West so we have more chance of it being snow for us, the next model run may show the complete opposite or an even further shift West. Genuinely, no one, nor any computer model can accurately say precisely where the two weather systems will meet, all we can do is wait and hope.

[AWD]

Big improvement on the 12z GEFS. Mean not getting above -5hpa at all until next weekend and good support for this too;

Barely getting above freezing at the surface;

[jethro]

Oh well weeks of model watching only to see lovely rain for a week! I give up!!!

See above.

[gottolovethisweather]

Compare the 48 NAE thickness' frame, which is for midday Sunday, with the equivalent 54 06z GFS thickness' frame for the same time and you'll notice the GFS (Which incidentally was good for snowfall on Monday) has the 522DAM line touching Swindon/Newbury, where as the NAE has it touching Bath!

Sorry guys, but a blatant IMBY response is needed right there.

BRING IT ON.

To stop people accusing me of blatant abuse of my powers as a host, I will say Saturday may well be my snow event, Monday may be yours.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

Oh well weeks of model watching only to see lovely rain for a week! I give up!!!

Still up in the air IMO.... excuse the pun!!

[iowpompeylee]

Why don't we split into the smaller regionals anymore? Hope for some snow for the Isle of Wight Monday :-)

[AWD]

Sorry guys, but a blatant IMBY response is needed right there.

BRING IT ON.

To stop people accusing me of blatant abuse of my powers as a host, I will say Saturday may well be my snow event, Monday may be yours.

12z GFS for Sunday midday;

12z NAE for Sunday midday;

Could the GFS have another westward shift still to come?

[DanDorsetUK]

Might start as snow but will turn to rain very quickly for my location in Bournemouth, Needs a Pretty big shift west now and i cant see that heppening within such little timeframe now.

[Iceberg]

awd the GEFS are good arnt they, if i follow all 20 of them between t48 and t78 about half take a very small warm zone over devon i.e east of devon = snow.

It has to be said that some even take the warm sector line over the lizard so still a chance albetit small for the cornish folk.

Overall id say 70% chance based on the pre ec models of snow for east somerset eastwards with a potential 10-20cm mon-tues.

[Gas Ed]

Ian Fergusson @ Fergieweather

. Who Knows We use EC, UKMO-GM & MOGREPS as Steer " @AndrewDodd3 : @ Fergieweather Meaning the GFS SHOULD West as we move back slightly Closer? "

Ukmo

It's come out a bit skewiff on here but yes, I asked Ian whether the GFS should back slightly west as we move closer.

Many thanks to Ian for his reply and not read too much into it except that the UKMO model we see at least is that bit further west in the reliable(ish) timeframe. All eyes to se EC later although I wish there were precipitation charts we could get our eyes on.

[gottolovethisweather]

yep the mild sector for monday is about 1/3 of the size forecasted 12 hrs ago, and also alot less mild, for those east somerset and north or east of our region, this is a big upgrade with snow from midnight sunday night until tuesday.

NAE 12z is also an upgrade for saturday as it keeps the precip in place over the sw whilst the cold air moves in as the low moves more south than south east.

Indeed I see the NAE is trending towards a reasonable event tomorrow over regions such as Devon, Somerset and Bristol & Avon. The 6z showed something very similar as I stated here on the second paragraph. A trend is a trend is a trend and a trend can hopefully be our friend.

[AWD]

awd the GEFS are good arnt they, if i follow all 20 of them between t48 and t78 about half take a very small warm zone over devon i.e east of devon = snow.

It has to be said that some even take the warm sector line over the lizard so still a chance albetit small for the cornish folk.

Overall id say 70% chance based on the pre ec models of snow for east somerset eastwards with a potential 10-20cm mon-tues.

Haven't looked at each perb but the short ens suite is a big improvement on earlier ones, and I still think the Operational could be a tad to Far East still after viewing other models and the ens.

[Iceberg]

Might start as snow but will turn to rain very quickly for my location in Bournemouth, Needs a Pretty big shift west now and i cant see that heppening within such little timeframe now.

Bournemouth, particularly the christchurch side has a good chance in these situation for mon/tues i'd say 50% chance of snow for you...atm subject to change of course.

[BristolBlizzard]

this from steve murr in model dicussion might be good news for southwest as ukmo was better for us

Posted 11 minutes ago

POPULAR

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?11-17

Evening All-

I know it will have been posted- however theres your slider-

The forecast for the 12's is 100% what I expected- UKMO has the wedge in the PERFECT place & snowfall well established by mon / tues-

Expect a great ECM & further GFS corrections over the coming runs

Edited January 11, 2013 by bristol blizzard

[TwisterGirl81]

Generally speaking, yes. We all live in the mildest part of the country, some like you, live in one of the mildest bits of the mild SW. We pay the price of living where we do in the Winter, but we reap the rewards in the Summer. Occasionally we get lucky, more occasionally still, we get very lucky and get humungous snowfalls - these mammoth snow events are always as a result of bitterly cold air coming from the East/North East and bumping up against our usual wet weather systems coming up from the South West. The weather currently showing, and the possibilities next week, are good examples of mild and wet meeting cold and dry - wherever those two meet will get the most snow. The latest model run has shown the cold moving further West so we have more chance of it being snow for us, the next model run may show the complete opposite or an even further shift West. Genuinely, no one, nor any computer model can accurately say precisely where the two weather systems will meet, all we can do is wait and hope.

Thankyou jethro that's explained things well...I hope it happens next week