South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Lynxus]

Up to FI ( +120 in this case ) Possibly a bit later as its clear what happens after..

Cooler air is dragged right in after the system moves south.

Strong easterly here i think with some nice block appearing to the East and NE.....

Oh man.

[AWD]

i think your last post AWD shows how dynamic this situ is. Just another 50-75 miles west and our whole region will be in with a chance.

Swindon/Devizes looks right in the firing line.

Yep BB. Good GFS run, all too play for. Good for after Monday too.

In fact, its brilliant after Monday.

GFS says GAME ON for next week.

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[quantock girl]

Fantastic GFS so far a major snow event is on the cards for the bulk of England and wales on Monday with significant disruption certain if it comes off

There is still an 'if' in the above statement...

...but certainly better than the drizzle given on the morning chart today. What a turn around in just a few hours. Still noting the stuff tomorrow night is progressively Westwards too - let's not give up all hope yet!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by quantock girl

[jethro]

My village 1978.... I wish I was there!!

That's going to be me in my trusty old Landrover next week.

[offerman]

Twister girl, you might get a dumping of snow now over the next week looking at the latest gfs charts!!!

Everyone will get some now.

[Karl83]

Hope the models change and bring snow to us on Monday.

[khodds]

Can't wait for the ECM now! What's UKMO saying?

Lovely day today, high of 9.1c low of -0.3c, currently 6.6c. Cloud coming in now.

[latitude]

Seen enough upto 144. The cold air still with us.

If we can get a bit of luck Monday, with a slight West shift of the cold air we could, COULD be in business.

[kumquat]

GFS 12z is a much better run for cold through next week but as we've all seen the models are in turmoil atm. Like iceberg says - can't really trust anything much past 48hrs (and even within that range there are inter- and intra-model discrepancies!)

[divadee]

I'm getting so excited! I will up looking out of the window all Monday! And then hopefully the sledge will come out!

[AWD]

On a side note, taking this run at face value, anyone planning to travel to the east/south east next week think again.

This run would cripple the east!

[Frosty_wsm]

I swear some people in that model thread don't even know the south west exists, you got people talking about country wide snow event then you have others posting up snow depth charts and oh look at the areas with no snow depths lol

[Iceberg]

yep the mild sector for monday is about 1/3 of the size forecasted 12 hrs ago, and also alot less mild, for those east somerset and north or east of our region, this is a big upgrade with snow from midnight sunday night until tuesday.

NAE 12z is also an upgrade for saturday as it keeps the precip in place over the sw whilst the cold air moves in as the low moves more south than south east.

Meto GM Raw concurs as well, much smaller warm sector and as the 528 line shows (which easily identifies snow in this situation) if anything its further west still with the snowline through west somerset, however in devon would get snow at times before and after the warm sector.

Fantastic Meto IMHO

[AWD]

UKMO at T72 as cold upper air very close to the SW;

Interesting;

EDIT: Snap Iceberg. Meto is what we want!

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[quantock girl]

I swear some people in that model thread don't even know the south west exists, you got people talking about country wide snow event then you have others posting up snow depth charts and oh look at the areas with no snow depths lol

They'll be crying when it shifts westwards even more!!! Mind you we can have snow down here and everything stops does it make the news? Nah!! Just some library shot of a farmer in a flat cap feeding sheep...

Keep naked snowdancing - who ever you are!!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by quantock girl

[dec10snow]

I swear some people in that model thread don't even know the south west exists, you got people talking about country wide snow event then you have others posting up snow depth charts and oh look at the areas with no snow depths lol

So true! Exactly what I was thinking actually! As you say they are all talking about country wide snow etc, and snow depth charts that show large depths elsewhere, but there is no mention of the southwest's almost no snow!

[keithlucky]

I swear some people in that model thread don't even know the south west exists, you got people talking about country wide snow event then you have others posting up snow depth charts and oh look at the areas with no snow depths lol

Wales the same we are the forgotten snowless regions of the UK

[lfcdude]

Hope Ian can come on and give us a update soon.

Forecast tonight will be very interesting, Expect the snow line to be 50 our so miles west our east come tomorrow nervy times.

[khodds]

On a side note, taking this run at face value, anyone planning to travel to the east/south east next week think again.

This run would cripple the east!

I'm meant to be going to London next Friday..........

[Tattooed Fox]

Yep totally agree with you Smartie. They just a have a one track mind up and down not also side to side that includes us. With regards to the snow, you never know we maybe pleasantly surpried over the next few days. Like everything with the weather it just needs a freak movement in the fronts and bingo, also as everything is in turmoil at the moment this makes it even more exciting. Dont you agree? nothing is totally positive with any weather person on the tv, I do hold a candle for Ian Ferguson though he never puts his neck out, and he is at the moment.

[AWD]

I'm meant to be going to London next Friday..........

Good luck!

UKMO is what we want guys. This would give us heavy snow Monday and further snowfall midweek.

Altogether now, BANK the UKMO.

[Jason74]

I'm getting so excited! I will up looking out of the window all Monday! And then hopefully the sledge will come out!

Believe the GFS is showing rain for our neck of the woods (Dorset).

Got to hope for another shift west.

[Dave Kightley]

Gfs is a knifeedge so close!!!!! ukmo verygood

[Iceberg]

If ECM agrees then it might be quite a defining moment to have all 3 majors agreeing on a heavy snow event for the sw within t72

I think is will go further west as this is the current trend

Sorry relegated to the iPhone as all the children have the iPad laptop desktop and I always come last !

[AWD]

Don't quite me on this but I believe up to T72, the UKMO model is ran at a very high resolution. If so, this has to be the slightly favoured option so far.

FAX's will be interesting later.

If ECM agrees then it might be quite a defining moment to have all 3 majors agreeing on a heavy snow event for the sw within t72

I think is will go further west as this is the current trend

Sorry relegated to the iPhone as all the children have the iPad laptop desktop and I always come last !

GFS probably could still do with another westward shift. Very good output tonight, we have taken a step forward. Just don't pull us back ECM.