South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[gottolovethisweather]

ECM Says a Shift west at T72 with a small colder warm sector and the boarder now over DEVON.......

YES YES YES !!!

Very similar to the latest Fax Charts and indeed yesterdays.

I think and it is simply a guess, the Battleground will somewhere in the region of Eastern Devon/SE Wales.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

considering the steady westerly correction today on the models, and Monday's event still 3 days away, I wouldn't be surprised to see this westerly movement continue right up to the event itself.

Yes still early days but it is nice to see and as people have often said the models find it hard to manage cold blocks and you can find this small corrections as it nears the event.

[theprophecyman]

Right, this is what we need to do to get the models to push further west....

Everyone get positioned in a "virtual circle", hold your virtual partners hand to your left, and your virtual partners wrist to the right,

And then, everyone together shout "WEST IS BEST" for 5 mins,,,,

I think doing this we will see any decent shift to the west in the next model runs

Now where did I put my pint of Black Rat

Edited January 11, 2013 by theprophecyman

[Stoxs]

Sorry guys, but a blatant IMBY response is needed right there.

BRING IT ON.

To stop people accusing me of blatant abuse of my powers as a host, I will say Saturday may well be my snow event, Monday may be yours.

OIIII

you aint the only one in this area!!!

[kumquat]

Next step of interest, the FAX charts. These have human interaction from Exeter, so we will get to see the view of the Met Office and what they think about the 12z data in these.

Aside from Ian's take on it, of course, in about 20 mins on Points West! Although it's looking like he's going to be very "cagey" and rightly so!

[Bobafet]

Another one from the iow here, think our chances are going to be marginal, think we may see a little but will turn to rain - hopefully not though we need a bit of luck, fingers crossed!! Lets hope the models upgrade further bring it on!!!

[Snowmadsam]

We may also have a risk of stalling looking at the ECM..very slim but it is there...(I think!)

[gottolovethisweather]

You are welcome Jethro.... Glad I was right, means im learning!!

ECM from what I can tell pushing further west.... what will happen? Who knows... my son is watching the snowman and his snowdog at the moment, seems he is as obsessed with snow as I am!!

And why shouldn't you be, up at Dartmoor. I hope you've got a lot of the essentials in.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

The JMA looks very interesting Monday afternoon;

Over all today, focusing on Monday, I would give the following scores;

- GFS is an improvement on recent runs, reducing the mild sector and showing the colder air to be more resilient. It would give a messy mix of rain, sleet and snow in NE parts of the region, mostly rain elsewhere, wintry on highest ground perhaps. Score 5/10

- GEFS are a big improvement on recent suites. The mean stays at -5c for Monday and this as good support. Surface temperature barely above freezing. Score 6/10

- JMA shows snowfall for most away from Cornwall. The mild sector is barely noticeable. Score 9/10

- ECM shows a westward correction to the pattern from previous output. Most places from Somerset northwards would see an all snow event, D&C a wintry mix closer to the mild sector. Score 8.5/10

- GEM shows the PPN struggling to make it past the West Country. This would give prolonged snowfall for many of us. PPN slightly lighter than other output though. Score 9/10

- UKMO is the best IMO. All snow event for many bar Cornwall and coastal areas with further snowfall in the following days. Score 9.5/10

We now need Ian and the Met Office to come on board. They have further data we don't have access too, and this could be showing different scenarios still. The FAX charts will give us a good idea later.

[gloucesterlad]

Can someone remind this lurker when fax charts update ?

Cheers !

John in Gloucester (low down in Quedgeley)

p.s. Lamp post duty and reports henceforth from tomorrow !

[chris55]

It's great to have such a busy and informative SW thread!!! I have been model watching for years but never really embraced Net weather until this year. Being in the Cotswolds I am definitely at the northern edge of the region, and this can more often than not be a good thing, but Saturdays front highlights that any incursion from the south west when we are cold can be very hard to predict and many in the region could be in the "sweet" zone, the same applies to next week.

Great stuff.

[AWD]

Aside from Ian's take on it, of course, in about 20 mins on Points West! Although it's looking like he's going to be very "cagey" and rightly so!

Will Ian's forecast take in the 12z data though?

[kumquat]

For the guys in the IOW, I know you're surrounded by water but the upper temps are looking pretty good for you guys. I'd be more concerned being down in Cornwall or somewhere in the far west. I think you have less marginal situations to deal with than those folk.

[DanDorsetUK]

bbc weather showing rain for south west on monday and quite alot further east

[AWD]

bbc weather showing rain for south west on monday and quite alot further east

The BBC national forecasts won't have the 12z data input into them until later tonight.

[chris55]

bbc weather showing rain for south west on monday and quite alot further east

BBC weather are way behind us lot and the 12zs, I'd listen to Ian on the points West forecast as he is sure to include his "thoughts" as well as the BBC graphics. It's an evolving set up.

[kumquat]

Will Ian's forecast take in the 12z data though?

Most of his recent forecasts do seem to have. Wouldn't be surprised if he just watched the ECM roll out.

[Nights King]

For the guys in the IOW, I know you're surrounded by water but the upper temps are looking pretty good for you guys. I'd be more concerned being down in Cornwall or somewhere in the far west. I think you have less marginal situations to deal with than those folk.

Yes I would have thought dartmoor and bodmin moor might have a chance though espec 300/400m+ if it plays out similar to today.

Edited January 11, 2013 by mullender83

[gottolovethisweather]

bbc weather showing rain for south west on monday and quite alot further east

Hi Raps.

What is your location please. I'm in Newbury, Berkshire and I'm of the opinion that a whole lot of those regions to the Southwest of me are in for a lot of fun in the coming days.

[Bristawl Si]

bbc weather showing rain for south west on monday and quite alot further east

Forget those Rapido.

Just stay tuned to Netweather. Best place for weather insight, as long as you sort the wheat from the chaff.

AWD, Iceberg, Ian F himself - v knowledgeable trio in this regional thread!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Beast of Plympton]

And why shouldn't you be, up at Dartmoor. I hope you've got a lot of the essentials in.

Very true sir!! Partly why I live in Princetown, usually the first place in devon to get it! Funny you should say about the essentials.... went to coop and got some preserves today!!

The village was shut for a week in December 2010 and sky news apparently reported the village shop being down to its last pack of crossiants!!

How upper class!! Little do they know!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Forget those Rapido.

Just stay tuned to Netweather. Best place for weather insight, as long as you sort the wheat from the chaff.

AWD, Iceberg, Ian F himself - v knowledgeable trio in this regional thread!

and ignore me, I'm only a MOD without any knowledge.

I agree with the rest and don't expect any favours.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

Yes I would have thought dartmoor and bodmin moor might have a chance though espec 300/400m+ if it plays out similar to today.

Nice....

[iowpompeylee]

For the guys in the IOW, I know you're surrounded by water but the upper temps are looking pretty good for you guys. I'd be more concerned being down in Cornwall or somewhere in the far west. I think you have less marginal situations to deal with than those folk.

I will take that pal :-)

[Polar Bear]

Forget those Rapido.

Just stay tuned to Netweather. Best place for weather insight, as long as you sort the wheat from the chaff.

AWD, Iceberg, Ian F himself - v knowledgeable trio in this regional thread!

.... Not forgetting yourself and gottolovetheweather of course...