South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[khodds]

UPGRADE ALERT! Can't posst it as on my phone but anyone seen Ians latest tweet? Good times!!

[124alex]

W COUNTRY Rain turning more readily to snow tomorrow late afternoon/eve for many areas; some settling above 150-200m likely but light: 1-2cm

Fergies update

[Lynxus]

I can already tell you there isn't going to be a westward correction on the GFS run, eastwards if anything.

Onto the other models.

13:00 Monday on the 06z;

13:00 Monday on the 12z;

And yet, Theres talk that it has already had a westward correction?

[AWD]

UPGRADE ALERT! Can't posst it as on my phone but anyone seen Ians latest tweet? Good times!!

Lol. There's us looking at Monday and there is a bit of interest tomorrow night now;

W COUNTRY Rain turning more readily to snow tomorrow late afternoon/eve for many areas; some settling above 150-200m likely but light: 1-2cm

[jessandjon]

Big snow countrywide in mod thread dint know if that includes us :-)

[latitude]

I can already tell you there isn't going to be a westward correction on the GFS run, eastwards if anything.

Onto the other models.

13:00 Monday on the 06z;

13:00 Monday on the 12z;

Dont really agree. The shortwave drops SE quicker bringing back the cold uppers, and better ridging towards Greenland.

[AWD]

And yet, Theres talk that it has already had a westward correction?

Cold air more resilient to hold on this run, but not further west. However, it is a good run for Northern and Eastern areas of the region still:

[124alex]

Cold air more resilient to hold on this run, but not further west. However, it is a good run for Northern and Eastern areas of the region still:

cant see much happening in the SW come Monday!

[AWD]

Dont really agree. The shortwave drops SE quicker bringing back the cold uppers, and better ridging towards Greenland.

Mmmmm, the colder uppers (-8c etc) retreat east quicker, but the -5c uppers surge west, so for snowfall, yes it's better as the mild sector is less pronounced, and the cold pool expands!

Good spot!

[khodds]

cant see much happening in the SW come Monday!

I'm sooooo excited now! Had an hours nap earlier and feel so much better. Cracking open the wine in time for the 18z tonight wahoooooooooooo!! Winter is coming!

[lfcdude]

Still fancy my chances in Devizes.. I hope we get alot of snow Monday.. would be a shame for east to get it all again

[Sainsbo]

Still fancy my chances in Devizes.. I hope we get alot of snow Monday.. would be a shame for east to get it all again

We can only hope! I don't think me (in Swindon) and you have too bad of a chance, but I think I'm having trouble not getting to attached to the charts. They keep changing too much!

[Lynxus]

Cold air more resilient to hold on this run, but not further west. However, it is a good run for Northern and Eastern areas of the region still:

The shortwave is certainly more west than before and as others have pointed out, Is already slipping down the country rather than moving east.! Good progress!!!!!

I will say again... GFS is ALWAYS! westerly overpowered and underplays the strength of the east. As long as we keep the shorties and lows to our west and south. We should be good.

I can hear the sigh of relief from here!

[Dave Kightley]

Somerset showing snow on its run. good enough

[Lynxus]

You can really see the strength of the east at +99

[khodds]

I have just text my boss to warn him - Steve Murr said 15cm snow from the first lot on Monday widely, and then more later in the evening plus more Tuesday going by other posts!! Yipppeeeeee!

[AWD]

Not to be taken literally of course, but here is the progress of the snow boundary Monday;

As you can see, its snow - rain - possibly back to snow again as the cold air fights back and wins.

All to play for still, I'll take that run but the pattern further west would be better.

Saying that though, good chance of all snow event for Wiltshire & Gloucestershire.

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[Iceberg]

yep the mild sector for monday is about 1/3 of the size forecasted 12 hrs ago, and also alot less mild, for those east somerset and north or east of our region, this is a big upgrade with snow from midnight sunday night until tuesday.

NAE 12z is also an upgrade for saturday as it keeps the precip in place over the sw whilst the cold air moves in as the low moves more south than south east.

[lfcdude]

Not to be taken literally of course, but here is the progress of the snow boundary Monday;

As you can see, its snow - rain - possibly back to snow again as the cold air fights back and wins.

All to play for still, I'll take that run but the pattern further west would be better.

Saying that though, good chance of all snow event for Wiltshire & Gloucestershire.

Game on!!! Hope it moves abit west.. So others can join in.. Also help my nerves lol

[Bristawl Si]

i think your last post AWD shows how dynamic this situ is. Just another 50-75 miles west and our whole region will be in with a chance.

Swindon/Devizes looks right in the firing line.

[AWD]

Game on!!! Hope it moves abit west.. So others can join in.. Also help my nerves lol

Yep, don't get me wrong, its a step in the right direction definetly, we just need a couple more if these steps yet to get others such as Somerset, Dorset & the Bristol area in on the game.

This charts is a good representation of the boundary on this run;

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[lynnsim]

I am not getting excited about tomorrow really. I reckon I will see some snowflakes mixed in with rain, but don't expect to wake up to any snow covering on Sunday. But, judging from the charts I'm seeing posted here, it's looking like Monday might be quite good for anyone in my region!

Fingers crossed you guys further west can join in too!

[khodds]

yep the mild sector for monday is about 1/3 of the size forecasted 12 hrs ago, and also alot less mild, for those east somerset and north or east of our region, this is a big upgrade with snow from midnight sunday night until tuesday.

NAE 12z is also an upgrade for saturday as it keeps the precip in place over the sw whilst the cold air moves in as the low moves more south than south east.

I love you for this post thank you!

[Iceberg]

to add its quite frankly disgusting how different this 12z ops run is to the 06z ops run, as early as T60 is starts to vary massively and trends very much towards the ecm and meto runs. Beyond t48 gfs is very discountable if its not supported at the moment by another major model imho. something to bare in mind when we get the obligatory gfs wild and warm run

[latitude]

Well cold air back across the West on Wednesday. Seems very messy up to then and lots of snow around.