South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[Iceberg]

Agree Paul doesn't mind the occasional advert

For those of us with netw radar as well the odd picture at key times seems to be ok

[katemart]

Wind ESE 9 KPH

Ooh, well spotted, Rapodo. Yes we were almost flat calm all day and now we've got 9.3 ESE gusts. Here she comes....

Sorry this would 9.3Mph. Also, temp 5.9C and falling, pressure 1015 mb and steady, humidity 86% dew point 3.7C and wet bulb 5.0C

Light rain, last 20 mins.

Edited January 11, 2013 by katemart

[mcweather]

ECM op run was a mild outlier after 96 hours a great many ensemble runs maintain very cold conditions perhaps supporting the meto office medium range for continued cold

[Dorset Weather]

How far inland would you need to be to see snow, also does the gfs chart take into account elevation, or is based at a set level above sea level.

Sorry newbie, with an interest in the weather

Simon

About 10 miles I'd say but also East of Bristol should do it.

[AWD]

How far inland would you need to be to see snow, also does the gfs chart take into account elevation, or is based at a set level above sea level.

Sorry newbie, with an interest in the weather

Simon

Depends on your location.

This is a rough guide to the wet bulb level;

As you can see, the freezing level across Devon & Cornwall is 400m asl.

Move further NE and its 200m asl.

[Bumpkin]

Bring a bottle, not everyone will be invited though, eh!

I'm cheap too, as I'm a bit of a lightweight.

I'm even cheaper, i don't drink! (yes I know a complete freak)

[DanDorsetUK]

Im just putting together some info on paper and track this better just getting some data from other sources, got a few calculations to make brb

Hmmm actually easier on google maps brb

Edited January 11, 2013 by Rapodo

[Simon Adams]

In chard, sunny Somerset, about 12 miles from the coast and 15 miles to the west of Bristol. Think I maybe unlucky like most in the south west!

[Dorset Weather]

In chard, sunny Somerset, about 12 miles from the coast and 15 miles to the west of Bristol. Think I maybe unlucky like most in the south west!

You might be alright, do you have any elevation?

[Beasterly]

What are the chances of seeing snowfall in Bath, Somerset from tomorrows front?

[Michelle Baker]

I guess Bristol won't see anything

[gottolovethisweather]

ECM op run was a mild outlier after 96 hours a great many ensemble runs maintain very cold conditions perhaps supporting the meto office medium range for continued cold

Good stuff, and just to add to that. Here are the GEFS 12z ensembles for T850s from Berlin and Helsinki showing the trend from the 8th January and 11th January outputs respectively. Check out the MEAN (red line) and it stays in a favourable position for cold throughout.

Berlin T850s - 8th January

Berlin T850s - 11th January

Helsinki T850s - 8th January

Helsinki T850s - 11th January

I don't see this cold spell moving anywhere fast for quite a while. Of course, usual caveats apply in BATTLEGROUND scenarios, there will be many an attempt to shift patterns East and West, but IMO, they won't pull it off without a BIG FIGHT!

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Sainsbo]

Don't give up hope yet guys, there's still a chance from Mondays front! I think Swindon has a nice chance, I'll have to keep up to date from you guys

[mitp]

Looks like the rain is fast approaching according to the radar looks relatively heavy but not that extensive

[kumquat]

18z gfs looks to me like the colder air is further east on the earlier timeframe. But who cares? It's the 18z.

[AWD]

Latest 18z GFS goes back east a bit. Quite happy with tonight's output overall though and will wait for the 0z and 12z data tomorrow for further westward corrections hopefully

Not as bad as the 06z but not as good as the 12z. 18z GFS makes a little more of the "mild sector" again, affecting Cornwall, Devon & Dorset. M4 northwards & eastwards its still snow just about.

Possibly snow-rain-snow further south. By no means a disaster but no step forward from the GFS either.

Anyway, its only the 18z!! :p

Edited January 11, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm even cheaper, i don't drink! (yes I know a complete freak)

I wouldn't be so rude as to say whether you're cheap or a freak but I'm probably viewed as both.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

AWD, anybody? Where is the best place to view the current UPPERS?

[DanDorsetUK]

Ok roughly 2oc difference every 25-35 miles east from bournemouth, looking at some of the wind speeds and direction already being seen and the current track of the low im going to call a an upgrade west by 40 miles by this time tomorrow for mondays event so anything east of taunton up through bristol bath will get rain turninging to snow events. Quite sure iow will get snow on monday, weymouth and swanage sleet/wet snow with snow for Poole bournemouth and christchurch plus everyone north of that line. Thats my take on things to come! Anything better than obviously a bonus!!

[AWD]

This run drives the front through quicker than previous runs;

A couple of snapshots for basic guidance;

AWD, anybody? Where is the best place to view the current UPPERS?

NMM or NAE?

I don't know of an actual, current observation.

[kumquat]

I don't know of anywhere that shows current uppers - you can use the T850 overlay on the netweather radar though (uses gfs values from latest runs I believe) as a guide.

Edited January 11, 2013 by kumquat

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks AWD, the NMM 12z looks pants for tomorrow it has to be said.

Not a good sign, just looks like cold rain to me but perhaps I'm missing some key ingredient.

The coldest UPPERS just don't seem to come in towards Central Southern england until 9pm or so and its past midnight before it reaches your patch and even later further South.

Sorry for putting a bit of a downer on things but it does seem we haven't got the coldest air entrenched in time for tomorrow's event.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

Newbury!!!!! No wonder your excited........YOUR NOT NOT IN SW.

Are you trolling or would you wish to be added to the nonsense blurters watch list.

If I'm wrong, please correct me.

I'll ban him if you like? ....lol

[AWD]

Final one from me before I hit the sack.

Overall, taking all of today's model output, the FAX charts, Ian's forecast and expert analysis into consideration, I think we have taken a step forward in the chase for the holy grail today.

However, remain very cautious. I think we have one more rollercoaster to ride tomorrow. My feeling is the 0z output will downgrade slightly but the 12z output will upgrade and start an agreement scenario.

Thus is very much on a knife edge.

Positive trends today which need to be continued into tomorrow. Plus we have the NAE and NMM start coming into range.

Exciting times ahead, but I feel only for some of us!

Mood advice: Be cautiously happy tonight

[gottolovethisweather]

I'll ban him if you like? ....lol

Consider myself banned.

Come on AJ, liven us up and me. Tell us a good JOKE.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather