South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[gottolovethisweather]

This made me laugh a lot!

All I want from a man is someone to do the ironing whilst I go out & get drunk. Not a lot to ask is it!

Edited for weather chat...ummm bit rainy isn't it.

How loaded or (rich as we say in my part of Berkshire), are you? and to think you also have a habit of dancing on tables, I hear.

Edited January 11, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Erbyskerby]

I know gtltw I was just pulling your leg!

Yes, still lots of surface water and my field/garden is still flooded. Looks like more to come on the radar in the next few hours. Pretty miserable really. I love snow but a nice sunny day every once in a while would be just as welcome!

If we do get some snow I'll join in the festivities - I don't drink but I have found some leftover champagne truffles - so I'll scoff them in Netweather's honour.

D'you know I'm 36 and I've never made one of those snow angel wing jobbies? Must rectify that - one day.......

[gottolovethisweather]

I MUST NOT DERAIL THIS THREAD, SO I BEST LEAVE IT TO OTHERS TO DO SO.

NIGHT NIGHT.

[dec10snow]

Wow, check out the snow risk for Wednesday.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

It can snow almost anywhere and this proves it.

Ya say that, but my risk is 0%?? big unhappy face right now!!

[gottolovethisweather]

I know gtltw I was just pulling your leg!

Yes, still lots of surface water and my field/garden is still flooded. Looks like more to come on the radar in the next few hours. Pretty miserable really. I love snow but a nice sunny day every once in a while would be just as welcome!

If we do get some snow I'll join in the festivities - I don't drink but I have found some leftover champagne truffles - so I'll scoff them in Netweather's honour.

D'you know I'm 36 and I've never made one of those snow angel wing jobbies? Must rectify that - one day.......

I'm 40 so we're virtually in the same club. I wish you well in your drying out and one day those angels will be made. As for now, I really need to hit my bedsheets.

Ta ta.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[dancing daisy]

How loaded or (rich as we say in my part of Berkshire), are you? and to think you also have a habit of dancing on tables, I hear.

Totally loaded! Infact so loaded that I buy Heinz baked beans and not Asda make of beans.

Edit> My friend made me blackberry vodka, it's good stuff, especially after a few drinks. lol

Edited January 12, 2013 by dancing daisy

[124alex]

Are we now not getting any snow this weekend

[snowmadchrisuk]

Aj, Get a SW coach trip sorted , up to the Midlands , Would only cost us a couple of quid each and we could kip on the coach lol.

[A.J]

Righty ho, almost time for sleep and yikes it's nearly midnight.

Tomorrow, I will look forward to more jokes from AJ, further sound analysis from the likes of AWD, Iceberg Slim, fergieweather and others and another night to hit the bottle should our dreams not be realised.

My analysis not sound?.....may you burn in Hades!...(although maybe not for a few days, rumour has it it will be a tad chilly according to model output)...lol

[bellanite]

Blackberry Whisky is amazing! Make it every year but not cracked into this years supply yet!

Just walked up the hill of death in Stroud (from Slad Road to Bisley Old Road) and there were a few very dense rain drops almost sleet but not quite!

Looks interesting over the next week. Here's hoping that everyone gets to see some snow.

Always the optimist! good luck all

[dancing daisy]

Blackberry Whisky is amazing! Make it every year but not cracked into this years supply yet!

Just walked up the hill of death in Stroud (from Slad Road to Bisley Old Road) and there were a few very dense rain drops almost sleet but not quite!

Looks interesting over the next week. Here's hoping that everyone gets to see some snow.

Always the optimist! good luck all

Ahh I am a whisky girl at heart, also born and bred in Gloucester. You can take girl out of Gloucester...

I am off to bed now and looking forward to getting up and seeing wall to wall posts about snow.

Goodnight all. Sweet snowy dreams Xxx

[fergieweather]

Are we now not getting any snow this weekend

Plenty of time ahead given UKMO tells us latest FORMOST forecast offers below or well below average temps thro to early Feb... this currently steers their 15d forecast opinions!

[pinkertonsurly]

4.4C and DP of 3.6 in Winchester.Moderate rain.

Wonder if it will snow at the top of the Shard and rain on London Bridge in the next few days. Idle thought of an idle fellow.

[kumquat]

Hey Ian, what's your poison after a Friday night at work? Back to the sharks for the w/end?

[Dave Kightley]

gfs= not good Monday

Edited January 12, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[lfcdude]

will go back and forth... 50 miles west.. 50 miles east... its ok... weekend runs have less data don't their?

[Dave Kightley]

UKMO is ok with the Warm sector Over Devon can Iceberg clarify it would be good enough thanks. Edited January 12, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[lfcdude]

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

NAE.. Game on! For A lot of us!!!

Edited January 12, 2013 by lfcdude

[AWD]

NAE says snow for all except parts of Devon & Cornwall

UKMO is exactly the same as the NAE

GFS says snow for Bristol northwards & eastwards, better than the 18z but still not fully there for us yet.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Dave Kightley]

GEM=Crap GME= best so far GFS=Crap. Hopefully ECm is be in our favour as the Met office use UKMO-GM and EC

NAE says snow for all except parts of Devon & Cornwall

UKMO is exactly the same as the NAE

GFS says snow for Bristol northwards & eastwards, better than the 18z but still not fully there for us yet.

Hey mate that NAE run only goes upto 00 Monday when the UKMO has the Warm sector over us 13.00?

[AWD]

GEM=Crap GME= best so far GFS=Crap. Hopefully ECm is be in our favour as the Met office use UKMO-GM and EC

Hey mate that NAE run only goes upto 00 Monday when the UKMO has the Warm sector over us 13.00?

Look at the pressure pattern, you can see on the NAE that the "mild" sector would be similiar to the UKMO, over Devon & Cornwall.

[AWD]

NMM looking Ok too, PPN somewhat less intense than on some other models though;

[AWD]

The upper 850hpa temperature charts are all very marginal for the West Country, with -4/-5c upper air shown for most of us.

Therefore, we can't really base "will it snow" solely on these. Look at other factors such as WBFL and thickness' too, to see if these make things any better.

It's all very marginal, but so far northern & eastern areas of our region are scraping into the right side of marginal, just.

Forecasting can only do so much here, this event (or non event) ultimately will be a nowcast event.

P.S. ECM is good in that "mild" sector is quickly replaced by colder air again. Not good beyond midweek though, Atlantic returns, but lets concentrate on Monday for now.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Iceberg]

Morning all.

Firstly nae, starts to show snow at t48 for Somerset, Dorset, wilts glos, Bristol etc. deciding line Devon and the line should be pretty much north south from there. So very good for most of us. A further movement west would be appreciated though.

Meto gm, again a similar deciding line with considerable precip.

Ec, takes the deciding line pretty much Cornwall or beyond as it makes much less of the feature, less precip in general.

Gfs ops, takes the declining line from Weymouth north to Bristol. But does bring more persistent snow for tues.wed for Cornwall, Devon etc.

Gfs ens, a total mix bag some have the deciding line as far as London some follow the ec, general middle ground might be similar to the ops run.

Higher res models on the gfs look to have much less precip and further west which might be a good thing.

The deciding line is only where pure snow will come from 00 Monday through to 2300 Monday. Even if your west of that deciding line you might get snow before or after but you have a much higher chance of being effected by the mild sector.

Still a lot of unknown with the system from precip to temps.

[Iceberg]

Sorry worth saying that the warm sector even if it comes over you might be only 3 hrs and 1 or. 2c warmer.