Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[Jezzer]

But this shows blobs of blue rain over southeast? i was sure we were far enough East for it to be snow.

Yep bit odd but I've never been a fan of BBC graphics, all very vague. It will be interesting to see how they develop tomorrow, I'm sure all will change for the better

[Panayiotis]

Ensembles from Thurdays 18z shows how the latest run has downgraded the cold for my area, on Thursday's run the mean dropped well below -5C on the 13th however on the last run its just about makes it.

Thursday's 18z run on the left: Fridays 18z on the right:

It seems that the orange member which is the outlier on Thurdays run is actually the correct outcome!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mayroad snowdrifts]

Been looking at the models over 2 years now never signed up before , loved the weather since little boy lol, learned a lot from here it's been up and downs since week or so back after the ssw, models changing near every run couldn't get round it, the main thing is cold and snow is on our way!!

Big improvement from December when it got so close and nothing happend, this time I thought it was heading that way untill gfs changed its mind ,

There is a meant to be a breakdown by next weekend the latest, I personally think the low pressure systems will undercut the high and leave us in cold air, with a new hp over the ne,I can't say for sure but let's wait and see !!

[gillskill]

I'd just like to point out the similarity of the GFS 8.1.13 18Z chart for 12.1.13 01:00 (78hrs out), and the GFS 11.1.13 18Z chart for the same time (6hrs out)

[Jezzer]

Been looking at the models over 2 years now never signed up before , loved the weather since little boy lol, learned a lot from here it's been up and downs since week or so back after the ssw, models changing near every run couldn't get round it, the main thing is cold and snow is on our way!!

Big improvement from December when it got so close and nothing happend, this time I thought it was heading that way untill gfs changed its mind ,

There is a meant to be a breakdown by next weekend the latest, I personally think the low pressure systems will undercut the high and leave us in cold air, with a new hp over the ne,I can't say for sure but let's wait and see !!

Welcome, certainly interesting times on here. All getting very exciting for snow lovers!

[essexweather]

Welcome Mayroad snowdrifts and gillskill

Half hour to the latest GFS and a large cup of coffee from the vending machine to keep me awake

Expecting a few surprises this run (hopefully) with the longevity of the cold late next week and who knows how long the low will linger in the SE on Tuesday morning!

Edited January 12, 2013 by essexweather

[Mayroad snowdrifts]

Lets hope so as I live there , annoying thing is I live on the coast and sometimes it's rain instead of snow but 5 miles further north is a white out , what I seen with very cold uppers here it should hopefully be a white out let's wait and see I suppose

Edited January 12, 2013 by Mayroad snowdrifts

[essexweather]

GFS up to T+36: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png

Colder air a little further West, but no major changes (which is to be expected so early in the run)

[Jezzer]

Spine of England getting hit on Monday lunchtime

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jezzer

[essexweather]

Widespread snow event on Monday, colder air a little further South and West compared to earlier runs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn664.png

[swfc]

pressure much stronger and more in line with ukmo at 108nhrs!!

[Jezzer]

Chilly!

[Chris D]

Still, runs are very variable and the GFS 00z takes the snow further east for Mon. Expect changes right up until the 24hr time-frame. Very uncertain situation.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Chris D

[swfc]

big big upgrade here and already easterly better aligned

[rory o gorman]

OH i like this http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130112/00/114/h850t850eu.png my facebook page will go nuts

[Jupiters Winter]

Excellent GFS out to T105 - Snow cover and -14 seen as a Minimum around Oxford. My oh my.

@ T120. I have no comments. Frozen lakes, frozen pipes. frozen sheep, frozen everything. V tricky week acording to GFS.

Im not a ramper but this run has tapped in the signals.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jupiters Winter

[PolarWarsaw]

Better for longevity this, easterly looks cleaner. On a downer Mondays event looks rainy from an IMBY perspective. Needs a 100 mile push west.

[Jezzer]

Cold certainly digging in nicely out to 120, looking good! RAF Benson could record some very low temps in the frost hollow

[southbank]

Comparing this 0z run to Friday , Thursday it's a 100 per cent upgrade , falls much in line with the 12z suites with its subtle differences

[swfc]

pressure building nicely over iceland at 132hrs.also pressure dropping over italy and troughing in north sea!big upgrade short to mid term

[Jupiters Winter]

Jet strong southerly tracking. length of cold increases on GFS.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jupiters Winter

[essexweather]

Much better at T+144 - and thats as far as I'm looking on this run

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

Now lets see what UKMO says at the same time

Edited January 12, 2013 by essexweather

[rory o gorman]

Couldn't resist!

HAHA that the SACRA club right logo right there .

great heights building around iceland possible greeny high .at 141 now

[SNOWPLOUGH]

I think the mother of all undercuts is coming at the end of hi-res!!

Brilliant run- East of Ireland has uppers below -4C from at least +60hrs til +162hrs with -6C/-8C uppers at times

Dan

Edited January 12, 2013 by SNOWPLOUGH

[swfc]

at 162 hrs look whos dropping in to say hello from the north pole!could be close to a connection here near iceland.fI now but cant emphasise how big an upgrade this is.Will it be gone come midday?probably