Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[chionomaniac]

Remember Guys and gals this isn't a general chit chat thread no matter what time of the day. Please use the regionals or cold discussion threads.

And back to the models.

Was the 00Z GFS run the messiest ever?

However it is also a good run with the key ingredients that I would expect to see.

The area highlighted never loses heights throughout the run which is consistent with the background vortex split. The jet stream powering out of America is therefore deflected south and reduces in intensity. This leaves the UK in the mix for cold to remain throughout the high res, Many opportunites will exist to see some of the white stuff n this pattern.

As for Monday, yet again the GFS is messy with warm pools in the slider, however the UKMO is better apart from the far west keeping the majority of the UK in the cold air throughout.

There could be some significant SSnoWfall from that!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Here's a tip for newbies trying to view the charts in a smartphone.

Use this link: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc

Select the GFS 500 hpa chart. Click animate. Pinch to zoom the map out a little and it will roll through the run automatically and if you drag the map to the correct postion you will be able to see the UK and the time stamp changing to the top right of the map

Edited January 12, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Polar Maritime]

CFS showing -12 850's touching the S/E on Tuesday

[ICETAB]

Nice upgrades for the length of time the cold stays with us this morning. The UKMO, GFS and GEM all look excellent for cold. From an IMBY perspective, it doesn't look like snow will fall in the NW (Cheshire) area on Monday. Met show rain. So it would seem they are leaning towards the GFS model since the UKMO looks more like snow in that area, where as GFS shows rain. The models will change detail so fingers crossed that warm sector gets wiped out in future runs.

[ICETAB]

Anyone know of a site that shows the ECM progression in smaller time periods. I can't see what happens to the 850s between T48 and T72. Time gap is to big.

[swfc]

ecm says a big no at 120hrs????looks very odd compared to esp the ukmo.also snow for monday looks like a downgrade on the bbc latest news 24

[ICETAB]

No Undercut on the ECM @ T120

[ICETAB]

Well, I'm surprised by the ECM this morning. I reckon this run will sit on the milder side of the ensembles again. I think its wrong...

[swfc]

ecm looks totally at odds with itself never mind the other models?either its on to something or its out of kilter with its output.terrible 144 hr chart to be honest

[Snowmad79]

I'm absolutely dismayed at the flipping this morning. GFS has changed its tune and now sits with the UKMO (Some degree of agreement out to 144hr with Energy continuing on a SE track under the wedge of HP to our north and the ECM now sits on the fence alone, cranking up the jet and totally flattening the pattern.

Just excuse me a moment while I bang my head on the desk a couple of times . Totally going to stop looking at output from T72 hr again. Otherwise head aches are going to be plentiful.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Snowmad79

[Dave Kightley]

I'm absolutely dismayed at the flipping this morning. GFS has changed its tune and now sits with the UKMO (Some degree of agreement out to 144hr with Energy continuing on a SE track under the wedge of HP to our north and the ECM now sits on the fence alone, cranking up the jet and totally flattening the pattern.

Just excuse me a moment while I bang my head on the desk a couple of times . Totally going to stop looking at output from T72 hr again. Otherwise head aches are going to be plentiful.

3rd run in a role it done this. Considering all of the output. Just looking at the gfs ens are Great until the weekend. UKMO great to. Seems on its own.

GEM is also very good btw

Edited January 12, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[swfc]

The 192hr ecm chart is close to being a great set up.given it looks sus at 120 hrs tho pretty pointless

[The PIT]

The 192hr ecm chart is close to being a great set up.given it looks sus at 120 hrs tho pretty pointless

Only if you like mild zonal stormy weather which is my next favourite. GFS the best looking model and will no doubt be the number one model with the snow fest it shows. So still a huge split on how long this cold snap will last and how it will end. No clear trend.

[Luke Best]

Hmmmm..... What's that 960mb dartboard low all about at T162??? One for the shredder methinks.

Oops - forgot to quote the original post:

Posted Today, 04:46

Xyplode, on 12 January 2013 - 04:40 , said:

Post some charts please! im eager to see

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1087.png --> T108

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1327.png --> T132

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1627.png --> T162

Edited by Chris D, Today, 04:46.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Luke Best

[bluearmy]

Where is iceberg to tell us that there is a data issue with ecm !!!

ecm is consistent. Consistently wrong? Not known for being wrong with its day 5 chart!

[Liam J]

Be interesting to see how the op ECM sits in the ensembles, after being every ones favourite model of late it's dealt a nasty blow this morning with that set of charts! I'd say it'll be sitting on the milder side of the suite later but we'll have to wait and see.

[nick sussex]

Where is iceberg to tell us that there is a data issue with ecm !!!

ecm is consistent. Consistently wrong? Not known for being wrong with its day 5 chart!

The ECM's even more progressive this morning than last night and the last few runs its sunk the higher quicker and quicker.

It's a shocker, after viewing the GFS and UKMO first I never expected to see such dismal output from it.I don't think I've ever seen the ECM be totally wrong within T96hrs which worries me!

A question BA I can't remember but is the UKMO higher resolution upto 72hrs than the ECM operational because the first problems begin to show up there?

Edited January 12, 2013 by nick sussex

[Fisherman]

Good Morning! First post for me, since our winters 'turned cold' or at least cooler a few years ago my interest in the weather has really taken off. Upon hearing all about this SSW event I found this site, more precisely this thread. Amazingly interesting watching things unfold, the twists and turns in the models and learning bucket loads along the way.

I have to say though my wife isn't too pleased with my addiction to this forum!

Anyway back to the models - my knowledge is extremly limited however with the ECM appearing to be going cold (warm) on us coldies and the GFS starting to improve prospects, it almost looks to me that when looking forward at 96+ (to my untrained eyes) that the ECM is lagging behind the GFS? What I mean is with all the GFS/ECM each taking turns to a coldies's favourite' could it be that the GFS is ever so slightly ahead of the ECM with it's thinking and by the time the ECM has caught up, it has moved onto another outcome? Seems to be the general pattern and goes a little way to explaining the sometimes huges disagreement between the two models?

Apologies if I'm talking complete crap!

Great forum - even better now admin has clamped down on all the 'chit chat'

Edited January 12, 2013 by Fisherman

[Jayces]

We are back to 2 against 1 again but this time the 1 is the model that has the best 5 day verification stats.

I think for sanity stick to T72 being FI.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Good Morning! First post for me, since our winters 'turned cold' or at least cooler a few years ago my interest in the weather has really taken off. Upon hearing all about this SSW event I found this site, more precisely this thread. Amazingly interesting watching things unfold, the twists and turns in the models and learning bucket loads along the way.

I have to say though my wife isn't too pleased with my addiction to this forum!

Anyway back to the models - my knowledge is extremly limited however with the ECM appearing to be going cold (warm) on us coldies and the GFS starting to improve prospects, it almost looks to me that when looking forward at 96+ (to my untrained eyes) that the ECM is lagging behind the GFS? What I mean is with all the GFS/ECM each taking turns to a coldies's favourite' could it be that the GFS is ever so slightly ahead of the ECM with it's thinking and by the time the ECM has caught up, it has moved onto another outcome? Seems to be the general pattern and goes a little way to explaining the sometimes huges disagreement between the two models?

Apologies if I'm talking complete crap!

Great forum - even better now admin has clamped down on all the 'chit chat'

Welcome to the forum Fisherman!! You picked a great time to join!

[Weather-history]

Interesting to see the evolution of ECM 0z runs for today from 240hrs to 120hrs

ECM 0z 2nd January for today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=2&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=240&map=0

ECM 0z 3rd January for today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=3&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=216&map=0

ECM 0z 4th January for today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=4&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=192&map=0

ECM 0z 5th January for today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=5&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=168&map=0

ECM 0Z 6th January for today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=6&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=144&map=0

ECM 0z 7th January for today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=7&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=120&map=0

Edited January 12, 2013 by Weather-history

[Iceberg]

Where is iceberg to tell us that there is a data issue with ecm !!!

ecm is consistent. Consistently wrong? Not known for being wrong with its day 5 chart!

No heard any data issues, but if you look at ECM for the 18th t144 due to the sinking high it has 850s up near Aberdeen at 4c. However there isn't a single gfs member tht gets anywhere close to that, and very little previous support from any model.

Support it just non existent for certain plays in tht ec det.

[BARRY]

We are back to 2 against 1 again but this time the 1 is the model that has the best 5 day verification stats.

I think for sanity stick to T72 being FI.

At the moment your right, even the BBc wont go no further than Sunday with any confidence.

[bluearmy]

The ECM's even more progressive this morning than last night and the last few runs its sunk the higher quicker and quicker.

It's a shocker, after viewing the GFS and UKMO first I never expected to see such dismal output from it.I don't think I've ever seen the ECM be totally wrong within T96hrs which worries me!

A question BA I can't remember but is the UKMO higher resolution upto 72hrs than the ECM operational because the first problems begin to show up there?

I checked the archived resolution thread last night and it doesnt say. However, i am sure that the ukmo raw changes resolution at T72. If its higher than ecm op, it wont be by much as that is at 16km!!

Exeter have the nae to refer to in order to check if ecm is making upstream decisions early which have big consequences. It isnt often that ecm op has the wrong pattern at short range. Very rare.

[Southern Storm]

Good Morning! First post for me, since our winters 'turned cold' or at least cooler a few years ago my interest in the weather has really taken off. Upon hearing all about this SSW event I found this site, more precisely this thread. Amazingly interesting watching things unfold, the twists and turns in the models and learning bucket loads along the way.

I have to say though my wife isn't too pleased with my addiction to this forum!

Anyway back to the models - my knowledge is extremly limited however with the ECM appearing to be going cold (warm) on us coldies and the GFS starting to improve prospects, it almost looks to me that when looking forward at 96+ (to my untrained eyes) that the ECM is lagging behind the GFS? What I mean is with all the GFS/ECM each taking turns to a coldies's favourite' could it be that the GFS is ever so slightly ahead of the ECM with it's thinking and by the time the ECM has caught up, it has moved onto another outcome? Seems to be the general pattern and goes a little way to explaining the sometimes huges disagreement between the two models?

Apologies if I'm talking complete crap!

Great forum - even better now admin has clamped down on all the 'chit chat'

Good Morning! First post for me, since our winters 'turned cold' or at least cooler a few years ago my interest in the weather has really taken off. Upon hearing all about this SSW event I found this site, more precisely this thread. Amazingly interesting watching things unfold, the twists and turns in the models and learning bucket loads along the way.

I have to say though my wife isn't too pleased with my addiction to this forum!

Anyway back to the models - my knowledge is extremly limited however with the ECM appearing to be going cold (warm) on us coldies and the GFS starting to improve prospects, it almost looks to me that when looking forward at 96+ (to my untrained eyes) that the ECM is lagging behind the GFS? What I mean is with all the GFS/ECM each taking turns to a coldies's favourite' could it be that the GFS is ever so slightly ahead of the ECM with it's thinking and by the time the ECM has caught up, it has moved onto another outcome? Seems to be the general pattern and goes a little way to explaining the sometimes huges disagreement between the two models?

Apologies if I'm talking complete crap!

Great forum - even better now admin has clamped down on all the 'chit chat'

welcome to the forum, yes I kind of agree with you about the chopping and changing, but as nick says

It a little worrying that the Ecm diverges not that far out.

All this is so fascinating but as always more runs needed!