Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[Blizzardo]

GFS developing into an excellent run here with cold digging in and no milder breakdown.

[rory o gorman]

if this thing undercuts will lock in a 47 style pattern crazy

[Aamar Farouq]

One big undercut potential riding the southerly tracking jet. Well knowing GFS could just blow the block in 3HRS. so upto T168 COLD all the way through.

[swfc]

at 162 hrs look whos dropping in to say hello from the north pole!could be close to a connection here near iceland.fI now but cant emphasise how big an upgrade this is.Will it be gone come midday?probably

If this atlantic low slides at174 hours then the uk could be burried lol

[Chris D]

Couldn't have timed coming back from going out any more perfectly! lol

The GFS 00z seems to have pulled out a belter of a run with the cold hanging on significantly longer than previous runs.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Chris D

[Jezzer]

If this atlantic low slides at174 hours then the uk could be burried lol

Getting tense!!

[Aamar Farouq]

and UKMO says Hello GFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php

What 00Z at the moment.

[southbank]

Ukmo good as well , will the ECM be a snowfest

[Snowy Liverpool]

UKMO says yes to the undercut as well. Great result tonight!

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO undercuts again, also models the warm sector that bit further west. Nice set of 00Zs so far.

[essexweather]

Up to T+120 on the UKMO and showing a keen North-Easterly across the UK with high pressure over Scandi - Atlantic looks close though.

[rory o gorman]

i think the the GFS are over cooking the amplification of the low in F.I . the heights are amazing to the north this a huge upgrade.

[swfc]

incredible.look to trhe north east in the depths of fi.pv heading our way.almost reverse zonality lol

[Xyplode]

Post some charts please! im eager to see :o

[Zenarcher]

Good GFS and UKMO there nice to see. The 18z GFS had the Atlantic slightly stronger and the pattern more flat on the 00z run it holds the Atlantic back a bit more and builds heights over our North something the UKMO agrees with on it's 12z run and now again this morning.

Edited January 12, 2013 by weathermaster

[Chris D]

Post some charts please! im eager to see

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1087.png --> T108

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1327.png --> T132

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1627.png --> T162

Edited January 12, 2013 by Chris D

[Xyplode]

On the current runs for Mondays weather its saying Birmingham will get rain not snow? is this likely?

[Mayroad snowdrifts]

My first ever comment on here before the 00z model,

There is a meant to be a breakdown by next weekend the latest, I personally think the low pressure systems will undercut the high and leave us in cold air, with a new hp over the ne,I can't say for sure but let's wait and see !!

Seemed almost right

Edited January 12, 2013 by Mayroad snowdrifts

[swfc]

ukmo more importantly shows a min of 7 days cold given the the low at 144 hrs looks to be sliding.still fi at 90hrs for me but i big move regarding pressure rises to the north are gaining momentum.ecm awaits to blow it all up?

[Chris D]

My first ever comment on here before the 00z model,

There is a meant to be a breakdown by next weekend the latest, I personally think the low pressure systems will undercut the high and leave us in cold air, with a new hp over the ne,I can't say for sure but let's wait and see !!

Seemed almost right

To be honest, it's pure guesswork as to whether any undercuts will take place after Wednesday!

[Polar Maritime]

GFS is another great run for cold and snow lovers, with further battle-ground event's throughout the run, and cold temps with -8 850's over the country for most of the time, with winds from the N/N/E and snow cover, it would be bitter.. Jet stream well south of the UK.

With the models being all over the place as of late, im shure there will be many more different evolutions over the coming day's, but the main theme is still there.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Jupiters Winter]

NAE shows snow further west as west wales.......

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS precipitation charts are never so accurate... The higher resolution NAE model provides better precipitation details closer to the timeframe.

Wow i like that chart alot cheers jupiters thanks for the info, i am new to this so how come the gfs looks completely different regarding snow line.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jupiters Winter

[swfc]

The ukmo chart is actually a great chart synoptics wise.the low at 144 hrs as to go south east.Anyone worrying over rain or snow just check out the 850s and 528 dam air line.most of the uk mainland looks fine for monday

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Major upgrade on the 0Z GFS run in terms of cold longevity this morning. There is no reintroduction of the Azores high during the whole of the run!