Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[Bristawl Si]

A messy wintry picture shown by the GFS 06hrs run so far.

The output today so far really is all over place with little confidence in any of the detail.

It's been "messy" for days now and next week looks like that - maybe that's the true weather picture for next week, one of those rain/sleet and snow weeks where no one really knows until 12 hours before what type of precipitation they're going to get!

A very plausible outcome, of the actual weather next week, IMO.

[Snowly does it]

It may well do, the problem is we are by that time pretty much out of the cold air, that solution screams of rain and wintry stuff over the hills if that was to happen as per the GFS.

Not as good as the 06z for snow chances, though Monday/Tuesdays band still looks good.

It doesn't matter much though, because the models will probably look different again by the 12z suite is complete!

Cold air hanging on in the east by T120 with LP lobe heading under, the cold to build back in behind it?

Very knife edge development from the GFS again but by T96 it's so different that we might as well now cast!

[Nick F]

Looking at the operationals and both the 00z GFS and ECM ens, I would have very little confidence in giving any detail beyond 4. Such a wide range of solutions available. Though looking at the ECM postage stamps, the ridge building close to the NW of the UK on the 00z op doesn't have too much support.

Would favour an attack from the Atlantic bringing snow but the cold winning out.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Nick F

[kold weather]

Also worth noting that heights over Greenland are now GONE...just like what happened in the December set-up, where the models kept downgrading to pretty much nothing...well we aren't far off nothing now, its just the splitting of the upper trough that keeps the cold air in place, and only so long can that be the case.

Decent enough chances for snow, but I can't say I'm a huge fan of the synoptics, its so close to going totally bust...

[warrenb]

It isn't Greenland you need to be watching, I think Scandi will be where we should look.

[ICETAB]

GFS 06z not even close to its previous output. None of the models have a clue past day 4...

[Southender]

The Jet is not playing ball in the mid range. Heading NNE rather than ESE, compared to last night.

Westerly flow by Thurs.

Just another evolution, I don't like it at all. But it WILL change.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Shrimper

[kold weather]

Well the PV lobe is FAR stronger on the 06z GFS over Canada, thats a huge difference compared to the 0z run.

Cold nearly totally gone by 144hrs and almost back to zonality!!

PS, this run vortex does not totally split for long, it reconnects by 96-120hrs, though its a weak looking link thats probably helping to totally flatten everything out.

Edited January 11, 2013 by kold weather

[TEITS]

Last post from me until the 12Zs (bet I post again)

I feel we could get to the stage in the model output where your location will dicate whether you feel its a upgrade or downgrade. As an example I would much prefer the safer convective type E,ly i.e ECM at +144 than the risk of frontal snowfall where I could either miss the snow or see rain. Now members say in the W Midlands would rather opt for something the GFS has been showing.

Just adding this because I believe we're going to continue to see both scenarios. So if you feel as though a model run is a downgrade for your location it could be an upgrade for others. So consider this so we don't have arguments on here which none of us want especially the Mods.

Difference between the ECM & 06Z GFS at +144 is just laughable. You know its times like this I wish I only had access to the models upto +72hrs.

Edited January 11, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Don't stress to much about turning milder later next peeps, its' such a long way off and most pro's still go for cold all next week,

how ever if 06z were to verify then there would be more heavy snow for most of the UK on Weds.

[SMU]

well a typically poor 06z-

as said many many times- its not worth putting any stock in it- waste of time

Heads up for the 12z you want a WEDGE ( think trivial persuits) of high pressure over iceland...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013011100-0-144.png?0 just east of iceland- on the 00z

S

[kold weather]

Worth noting the GFS op run is fairly close to quite a few of those ECM postage stamps at 144hrs, we maybe seeing another consensus just starting to develop, one for a milder attack from the atlantic...an attack that wins.

Snowy spell from Moday-Wednesday then alot milder by Friday is the summery of this run.

144hrs is FI, the trend for a downgrade in northern heights is one that cannot be denied however, its been utterly relentless and now there is NO northern blocking at all on some model runs, at least not in the Atlantic section.

Edited January 11, 2013 by kold weather

[Southender]

PV lobe over Iceland kills it and back to a zonal flow. You have to laugh really!!

Nothing to worry about at the moment. Let's enjoy what the next 4-5 days will bring.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Shrimper

[Nick F]

Really wouldn't have much faith in the 06z GFS op beyond Monday, so different from the ECM. Big differences in what to do with shortwave energy arriving from the west. GFS takes the shortwave head-on into the UK, while ECM takes it much further south.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Nick F

[Methuselah]

Well, I don't know what the Jet's doing, or not doing, but, whatever it is doing, the models don't currently have much of a handle on it!

Still, not knowing is what makes weather so fascinating!

[Methuselah]

well a typically poor 06z-

as said many many times- its not worth putting any stock in it- waste of time

Heads up for the 12z you want a WEDGE ( think trivial persuits) of high pressure over iceland...

http://modeles.meteo...100-0-144.png?0 just east of iceland- on the 00z

S

Maybe so, Steve. By next week we'll know...

[Liam J]

So potentially we are now seeing GFS, BOM, NOGAPS & GEM vs ECM possibly UKMO-GM?! I can't remember such a time of model chaos it's remarkable watching it unfold.

I'll look forward to the freezing cold weather over the weekend, then who knows what surprises may turn up.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Liam J

[bradymk]

Well the gfs 6z is once again, another run, another outcome, really start to get tiring all these changes run to run, a poorer run due to lower heights to our north but dont worry im sure this will change by the 12z. No model is being consistent and its all getting a bit annoying, ECM ENS stay cold until at least the end of next week before there are a few milder members due to an atlantic attack however so far out im sure this will change to. An atlantic attack could see snow and the cold winning or snow to rain or just rain.

[Methuselah]

Are my posts being deleted or what's the story?

Moved into the Ramp & Moan thread, Matty...

[Weathizard]

A poor 6z run, the jet is just a complete and utter killer here, if you look at the track of the jet due to the low pressure over iceland and vortex over western Greenland its just flat which means the HP can't and will not go ridge north. Just another solution to add into the mix, hopefully GFS is over powering the vortex. Still its just another evolution to add to the list of about a thousand different things that can happen, small movement at T72 have a massive knock on effect, you can see it on this run the lobe over Greenie is a lot stronger than the 0z.

Looking at the 00z ens though they were good within 168, hopefully get a few more on board here.

[That ECM]

Yet another run with major volatily between runs. Will the 12z's sort it out. Not a chance. Looking upto t72 we have a general theme, there after, pick one you like because all options on the table.

[Nick F]

144hrs is FI, the trend for a downgrade in northern heights is one that cannot be denied however, its been utterly relentless and now there is NO northern blocking at all on some model runs, at least not in the Atlantic section.

I'd say t+96 is the start of FI, perhaps earlier if you are looking at the mesoscale.

[Southender]

Do not look at this run if you are a coldie!

Pure Zonal muck from Thurs.

Zero heights to the North and a pattern that would probably wipe a good 7-10 days off winter.

But, remember this is way out in la-la land and I would put quite a bit of wedge on this being well on the milder side of the mid-range mean.

Don't panic!

[SP1986]

This really is becoming fascinating to watch, it's an epic model battle, with more end to end drama than an FA Cup final. I can't even begin to fathom which model has the upper hand, because there simply no way of telling at the moment.

Obviously there is a signals for Atlantic energy from a few models now, which cannot simply be swept under the rug, but on the other hand the ECM is consistent in keeping the colder solution, it's really finely balanced at the moment

What is almost certain though is we have a period of weather ahead which includes hard frost, and some decent snowfall, so even in the event the Atlantic does March back in, it's still a decent (albeit typical) spell of winter weather.

Edited January 11, 2013 by SP1986

[Paul White.]

Probably I notice that if a GL block is not showing then the people in the west or Ireland moan claim downgrade. Just like if a scandi high is not shown the same can be said for people in the east. You should all move to West Yorkshire we seem to do well out of both situations. 😜

Edited January 11, 2013 by Paul