Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[manutdmatt1986]

Looks like it's been modelled incorrectly to rise hence why some forecasts showing raw data have it as rain.

The latest BBC video forecasts also have it as rain to the south of London on their graphics.

[SMU]

Ian look at the thea chart for T60 & T63

shows where the thought of snow to sleet comes from-

just a pocket of 'wetter' air - making the lapse rates a little more saturated-

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011206/60-100.GIF?12-6

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011206/63-100.GIF?12-6

the 14c line looks a tad warm-I prefer to see 10c -

maybe the 850-1000 charts display 1290/1300 DAM?

whats your thoughts-

the transition area looks to be south & West of london.... but a fine line

S

Edited January 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[weatherguy]

It can't be though as they have manually written that it will turn to rain in their warnings and forecasts. If they thought it was an error then they wouldn't have amended their forecast surely?

I'm not sure then as I've not seen those forecasts (sorry, I'm being a bit IMBY wrt looking for snow at this close range!), but I was just interpreting Ian's words...

[Hammer]

Next NAE run/modifications due around 1515hrs. Should be fascinating if last run was anything to go by!

Fergieweather do the pro's literally have to wait for data like the public from model runs or do you get access earlier.

[Methuselah]

People also ought to bear in mind that even in a legendary winter like 62/63 there were milder periods where the top layer of snow actually melted then refroze a couple of nights later. As a girl, I can remember being able to walk on icy surfaces with a couple of foot of snow underneath.

Obsessing over milder interludes is rather silly when the snow took 3 weeks post thaw to completely disappear from some fields around here in 2010.

Very true, Iceni. Do you remember the day it rained at -4? The next day, there was so much glare!

I guess that that's the point: you can never be absolutely sure (until it happens) that your localised patch of precipitation will fall as snow. Not only are the models trying to make sense of the likely synoptics, they're also struggling with the Great British Triple Point Problem.

I don't thing that GBTPP will stick!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[fergieweather]

The latest BBC video forecasts also have it as rain to the south of London on their graphics.

Maybe they've changed their thinking since my chat with them last night. Will hear Chief's thoughts in hour. Anyway: weather will do what weather will do! Joys of forecasting such stuff on our little insular nation!!

[Slowpoke]

Starting to believe, even those BBC forecast a snow to rain event here in Blackpool, they might be wrong.

They models don't suggest a max of 5C to me...

[johnholmes]

hang on a minute the ECM has started drifting towards a milder outlook.and my met office temps for my area on the south coast are rising by the day.i love the cold more than anyone I can assure you.the things I have written on there are facts.ecm/temps and I said by tonight we should have a much better idea on snow chances for the uk on Monday and later in the week in my opinion.

I pulled you up for the bit highlighted-it is NOT what the Met O are saying on TV or posting on the web-that is fact

[ICETAB]

Next NAE run/modifications due around 1515hrs. Should be fascinating if last run was anything to go by!

Do you have a link?

[manutdmatt1986]

Maybe they've changed their thinking since my chat with them last night. Will hear Chief's thoughts in hour. Anyway: weather will do what weather will do! Joys of forecasting such stuff on our little insular nation!!

Not much joy if I end up with rain whilst all other eastern and central areas (including my home town in London) get a good dumping of snow, haha!

Thanks, Ian.

Do you have a link?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

[Panayiotis]

Do you have a link?

weather model nae - united kingdom - rain/snowfall [base + 42] - weatheronline

[cooling climate]

Not long in, good to see a very wintry outlook from the Meto. Surprised how good the 06z run

was and to me that is a big positive. I would now expect to see a excellent run from the 12z

along with the UKMO which has already captured the mid range pattern I think.

Hopefully the ECM will be on board later. So much to be positive about this afternoon

and by tomorrow afternoon start to take a more serious look at what snow amounts can be

expected up and down the country during Monday and Tuesday.

Happy Days.

[mrsmall]

Do you have a link?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

[mcweather]

hang on a minute the ECM has started drifting towards a milder outlook.and my met office temps for my area on the south coast are rising by the day.i love the cold more than anyone I can assure you.the things I have written on there are facts.ecm/temps and I said by tonight we should have a much better idea on snow chances for the uk on Monday and later in the week in my opinion.

Pompey lee. The EC, this morning was extreme mild outlier in its ensemble set and is there for unreliable. The main bulk of the ensemble runs maintain the cold or very cold theme.

[johnholmes]

hang on a minute the ECM has started drifting towards a milder outlook.and my met office temps for my area on the south coast are rising by the day.i love the cold more than anyone I can assure you.the things I have written on there are facts.ecm/temps and I said by tonight we should have a much better idea on snow chances for the uk on Monday and later in the week in my opinion.

and to add this is the Met O Portsmouth forecast currently available

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/portsmouth_forecast_weather.html

[tinybill]

http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1

this up to tueday

[fergieweather]

Fergieweather do the pro's literally have to wait for data like the public from model runs or do you get access earlier.

Somewhat earlier for UKMO stuff. But we don't run with it in any operational forecasting sense until Ops Centre have modified it (or inform us it's being used as per raw).GRIB data feeding website site forecasts is, of course, only ever raw anyway. Thus there can be discrepancy versus TV forecasts and their graphics (these are the modified fields but temperature is fed now from UKMO 'Best Data' feed from a few months back and was recently upgraded again a fortnight ago to a new improved modelling stream of rural mins under anticyclonic conditions, running at UKV resolution.

[Frosty.]

Wat too much concern and clutter about will it snow here or there or anywhere. the cold is here, its getting colder and colder over coming days. This is just the start of it, enjoy.

BFTP

Yes Fred, we have been chasing FI cold spells and now we have one developing right now, already cold in the south with rain and drizzle but so close to turning wintry with temps around 3c, it's just the beginning. Monday currently looks like being a day of major travel disruption due to significant accumulations up and down the uk, and it won't be melting either!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Frosty039

[winterof79]

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO== Steady as she goes. Edited January 12, 2013 by winterof79

[SMU]

Thats the 06z NAE- the 12z is only out to 24

S

[loafer]

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO== Steady as she goes.

That is the same as the 06Z.

ETA - but it is T+42 instead of T+48, but the 06Z model - do they do the model every 12 hours and just move the output?

Answering my own question, it appears weatheronline use the previous output, move it 6 hours, and then overwrite as the new output comes out - the hour blocks are a subtly different colour...

Edited January 12, 2013 by loafer

[manutdmatt1986]

Looks like amodification east.

f

That's from the 6z (bottom right hand corner).

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO== Steady as she goes.

Doesn't look right to me. The first band that comes into scotland sunday, should die once it passes northern england sunday evening/night, then a completly seperate one (main band), should push down from the north west monday morning, reaching all areas later on in the day..

This NAE just has one main band pushing down sunday evening, reaching all areas later monday. Wrong in my oppinion.

[Slowpoke]

Looks like amodification east.

f

Still says '06' in the bottom corner

Edited January 12, 2013 by Slowpoke

[SnowBallz]

Updated out to +30 now: