Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[Matty M]

GFS does not make much of tomorrow's precipitation for the mainland UK.

The front fragments as it pushes east.

[Panayiotis]

Upgrades on the snow potential on the 12z...

[J10]

Personally, I think the NAE is not seeing the snow cover that maybe present from band 1 tomorrow/Monday night.

Band 2 could actually also be a mostly snow event if there is snow cover already evident. The only concern is that the SW, away from higher ground, may miss out on the event.

SM

they may do but it is certainty colder there on 12Hz than 06Hz run (by around 1c)

[Harsh Climate]

GFS does not make much of tomorrow's precipitation for the mainland UK.

The front fragments as it pushes east.

Just what I thought would happen. Certainly some huge differences between the gfs and nae precipitation charts already.

In past experiences I find the NAE can be quite poor so I would be inclined to go with the gfs for the time being.

[Ice Day]

The 0 deg 850 line is about 100 miles further SW on this run. Good sign I would think (12z on the left)?

Edited January 12, 2013 by Ice Day

[Slowpoke]

The 0 deg 850 line is about 100 miles further SW on this run. Good sign I would think (12z on the left)?

The -4 line is further East...

[kold weather]

GFS unchanged, still develops a strong second band (NAE develops the first front far more, the 2nd barely develops at all) and sweeps it across the country giving sme worth while snow away from the SW.

[Dean E]

they may do but it is certainty colder there on 12Hz than 06Hz run (by around 1c)

Exactly my thinking, from past experience, it does tend to upgrade snow events slight, if snow cover is already present.

Much better than the 6z

SM

[IDO]

06z GFS snow risk: 12z:

As some were hinting, the first front very hit and miss for south/SE Monday.

[snowmadchrisuk]

NAE Is putting the SW in the frame again... Shame Metoffice arn't more keen , but maybe they will tomorrow . At the moment there saying rain or snow for SW uk .

[Harsh Climate]

Big upgrade for yorkshire/north east england/eastern scotland/linconshire on this run! Heavy snow pushing back in from the north sea once the band clears away

Edited January 12, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[IDO]

The second front has been pushed into France: 06z:

Edited January 12, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Ice Day]

Height's slightly further north towards Iceland at 66hours

[Panayiotis]

As Boris would say, very niice!

[bradymk]

Please can someone advise - I do have some considerable experience regarding models etc. Why do GFS temperature charts for my area (Pembrokeshire SWWales) always overestimate min/ max temps. Let me give you an example - midday today GFS 8c, actual temp 3c - this also happens with nighttime minima

Hi Jonathan, yes believe it or not, where we live isn't actually that mild and it does get very cold here but for some reason most models always overestimate it because of how close we are to the irish sea, it can be several degrees out at times. GFS in particular is prone to this which is why for temperatures, i generally look at Carmarthen as this is the closest accurate temps i can find. Its a bit annoying.

[Alex95]

Big upgrade for yorkshire/north east england/eastern scotland/linconshire on this run! Heavy snow pushing back in from the north sea once the band clears away

Indeed - coupled with the easterly midweek this run could be a cracker for the NE (and probably East Anglia too) in terms of snow amounts. Somewhere should get 8"+, I just hope Monday's event isn't too marginal. The models often have a tendency to shorten easterlies when we get nearer the time, so I'm keeping a close eye on the projected one which arrives on Tuesday.

[Long haul to mild]

The second front has been pushed into France: 06z:

Looks like it stalls over EA/SE Monday evening to me judging by the precip charts. Sorry can't post charts as on mobile.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[Continental Climate]

signal for the undercut maybe slightly diluted on this run http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011212/gfsnh-0-78.png?12!! It will probably still happen though

[swfc]

Already slightly flatter at 84 hrs and low under greenland winding up

[Continental Climate]

No cobra run this time i fear http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png!! maybe moving to ecm

[bradymk]

More similar to the 00z GFS thus far.

[Geordiesnow]

Indeed - coupled with the easterly midweek this run could be a cracker for the NE (and probably East Anglia too) in terms of snow amounts. Somewhere should get 8"+, I just hope Monday's event isn't too marginal. The models often have a tendency to shorten easterlies when we get nearer the time, so I'm keeping a close eye on the projected one which arrives on Tuesday.

And we are seeing the easterly getting shorter on this run for sure, won't surprise me if this continues in all fairness like this easterly has been downgraded.

We have too see the UKMO/ECM but it seems the models just over-do the blocking somewhat. Should still be some snowfall but fact is, I rather have yesterday's 12Z run in the short term over this one so far.

[fergieweather]

Now serious doubts re scope & evolution of second main snow band later Monday based on NAE extrapolation. Story tomorrow eve into Mon am remains consistent. Atlantic push more pronounced later Monday with early lying snow across west melting; rain atop it, out as far east as around Swindon (at least) with WBFL rising above 400m readily. Watch for further developments later this eve.

[Tim Bland]

Jet profile looks ok so far.. You can see where the brick wallntonthe west is http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=96&code=0&mode=5

[IDO]

Very marginal for snow in Surrey, Sussex and Kent on Monday. The warm sector look like it will turn it to wet snow/ sleet or rain.