Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[Buzz]

Well it looks like the GFS wants to prolong a spell of severe wintry weather over the UK next week, all eyes north east somethings brewing!

Indeed, as does the UKMO.

Now we await the ECM in 2 hours ...........

[bradymk]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-168.png?12

GFS setting up a CLASSIC knee deep snow event for the South -

Yes Steve, another upgrade in the medium term. UKMO also still prolongs the cold so we shall wait for the ECM, will it stick with its last few outputs? im not so sure

[Snowly does it]

Wow, I thought the Atlantic was coming in by T174, but it's still sliding under the cold air embedded!

[Slowpoke]

That low is extremely intense! I expect it to be much more watered down in the next run.

[nick sussex]

What a big relief to see the GFS and UKMO continue with their positive cold trends from this morning.

We await the ECM but if that backtracks and is proven to have called this completely wrong within T96hrs it would be the biggest embarrassment for that model since many of us have been members.

Surely if the ECM had picked up on something then the GFS/UKMO have had now three runs to follow it and they haven't. It's been a very strange week lets hope that after all the changes we get one final one from the ECM.

Edited January 12, 2013 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-168.png?12

GFS setting up a CLASSIC knee deep snow event for the South -

Steve

its a mega run for our SW and S Wales friends too

BFTP

[kold weather]

I'm sorry but there has been some right royal nonsense spouted all over the forum today, clearly people are getting pre-snowmensetral tension or something.

What we have so far is a band of snow/rain for areas SW and maybe for a time more generally in the south (but thats uncertain!!) followed by a cold spell with high pressure building further north and bringing in a weak easterly. After that the Atlantic is going to try and push in...IMO its going to fail.

[Slowpoke]

The low causes a NW'ly flow with the UK still under -8C uppers! It would give a massive snowfall for me in the NW. FI I know but I can dream

[TEITS]

Brilliant 12Zs.

UKMO says no to the ECM and so does the GFS.

This has heavy snow showers written all over it.

As for the NAE I have known it to be wrong many times at +0 when viewed against the radar. Speaking of which for those who are likely to see snow rather than rain it will come down to radar watching anyway, regardless what the models say.

No sign of the end of this cold spell based on the 12Zs so far.

[Panayiotis]

Look at the NH chart, shows the PV split right down the middle at 174hrs, probably the effect of the SSW!

Also that upcoming low should undercut the heights to the north, giving us another easterly and snowy outlook.

[ChartViewer]

Jet heading south as per Chios split vortex meaning it cant be bothered to try and get across so goes on holiday to the Med

[Continental Climate]

I know its at 180 but i wonder if this is what 1947 looked like http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18015.png!!

P.S. how do i post pictures and not just links? I think pics look better lol

Edited January 12, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Zenarcher]

The UKMO is a good run in the longer term and holds off the Atlantic by building heights to our North that's a few runs now it's done this and has not moved over to agree with the ECM,

GFS 06z looked more similar to the ECM and didn't build up heights to our North but the 12z run gives the UKMO support on building heights up to our North something the GFS 00z showed as well,

Overall these are good runs and at this range it's the trend that counts not the exact details.

[Buzz]

The low causes a NW'ly flow with the UK still under -8C uppers! It would give a massive snowfall for me in the NW. FI I know but I can dream

Which chart are you referring too? All charts are showing an east or south easterly flow.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Buzz

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO 144 hrs very good for a prolonged cold spell.

Correct, if one moves from 120 to 144 the movement shows exactly that. Block moving/linking to NNE and a prolonged set up. Good spot and a more accurate brief summary of it.

BFTP

[Panayiotis]

Brilliant 12Zs.

UKMO says no to the ECM and so does the GFS.

This has heavy snow showers written all over it.

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?12-17

As for the NAE I have known it to be wrong many times at +0 when viewed against the radar. Speaking of which for those who are likely to see snow rather than rain it will come down to radar watching anyway, regardless what the models say.

No sign of the end of this cold spell based on the 12Zs so far.

Exactly, this is what upgrades I have seen in the 12z. I dont care if it doesnt show snow, as long as the cold is there, the snow should follow afterwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

steve murr channel low channel low alert that would really make us on the tropical southcoast happy brillant runs so far.

maybe not to much warm air mixed in but still a fantastic run.

Edited January 12, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Moleyroley]

Newbie ! Hi guys really sorry I'm very confused at the amount of posts saying the Atlantic is breaking through , then someone else says great run , I'm inclined to believe there are plenty of trolls here ,am I right that this is a good run ? Thankyou :@) sorry if this is off topic

[chionomaniac]

Jet heading south as per Chios split vortex meaning it cant be bothered to try and get across so goes on holiday to the Med

I find it difficult to believe now that the ECM will do anything other than follow suit. The UKMO holding firm. Any model that fires that jet stream across the Atlantic is in autopilot ......

[Slowpoke]

FI I know but that channel low with the established cold is impressive!

[Ice Day]

Overall these are good runs and at this range it's the trend that counts not the exact details.

100% correct..............and the trends are looking colder

[Stuie]

The GFS is not backing away with the precipitation level for Monday.

Really hope it doesn`t follow the precipitation prediction of the NAE. This is what I will be following for the next 24 hrs. TBH the east and anglia region up until Wednesday looks decent imo.

[igloo]

this afternoons GFS has realy went mental i dont see how you can get a chart like this with pressure fairly low to our east and north i would bin this run.more likely the UKMO is nearer the mark

Edited January 12, 2013 by igloo

[IDO]

Only just a week away so you never know. But it shows potential if the jet goes south:

[Slowpoke]

Newbie ! Hi guys really sorry I'm very confused at the amount of posts saying the Atlantic is breaking through , then someone else says great run , I'm inclined to believe there are plenty of trolls here ,am I right that this is a good run ? Thankyou :@) sorry if this is off topic

For those who want cold, next week looks fantastic! Plenty of nights well below -5 and possible ice days with a slack E / SE'ly flow. Most snow confined to the Eastern coasts but then the Atlantic throws a channel low into the mix with the cold well established, it could get very messy!

Anything beyond Tuesday is FI atm but the cold staying for the full week looks likely!