Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 13/01/13--->

[Summer Sun]

yeah with in the next half an hour or so, nice to see the temp below 2 aswell

Thanks, yes getting colder now 1.9°C with a dew point of -0.8c

[Freezing-Point]

I have a good feeling about this one. I think it will deliver the goods. Temp 0.3c here.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Freezing-Point

[Alex95]

NE flow at upper levels- with -8c/-9c uppers- lower pressure than usual as well. Residual cloud from todays system will be quickly eradicated overnight, with the establishment of a completely new airflow-

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

system curling in.. here we go again

The TV BBC forecasts for tomorrow looked dry this morning, but they look much better now. I've noticed they are a bit rubbish at showing convection, New Year's Day 2010 looked dry I think the day before, but of course we ended up with several inches of snow.

[tynevalleysnow]

Dp -3.7 here but maybe too far inland for all the fun tonight

[Emma Jayne Agar]

Nothing here in seaton sluice as yet and snow from earlier all but melted

Edited January 14, 2013 by Emma Jayne Agar

[Isolated Frost]

Never look at the BBC/NWP forecasts when it comes to convection- it truly is all due to conditions on the day- tomorrow is looking the most positive for North Sea convection since Dec 16 2011 (which only gave 3cm mind, but we can't predict tomorrow with that much certainty yet).

I'm going for rain and sleet (light) to start off tonight, with some snow afterwards.

[Alex95]

Never look at the BBC/NWP forecasts when it comes to convection- it truly is all due to conditions on the day- tomorrow is looking the most positive for North Sea convection since Dec 16 2011 (which only gave 3cm mind, but we can't predict tomorrow with that much certainty yet).

I'm going for rain and sleet (light) to start off tonight, with some snow afterwards.

I think you might have forgotten the 5th December 2012!

[tynevalleysnow]

Doesn't look like it will get much further inland than newcastle tonight to me

[Isolated Frost]

If there is any convection in the N Sea at 9/10ish, the 850hpa vectors turn E/NE, and you should see some snow then tynevalleywinter, but only if there is some after 9pm- one of these might clip you as well.

[Cloud 10]

Evening all,i see most of us got some decent snow at some point today,got about

2 inches up here but did start thawing a bit after it had stopped but still a good covering

now.

Comparing the NAE forecast from yesterday to what is happening now,the front/trough has stalled

a bit further east than was predicted,which means the front is lying in the north sea rather than

over us.

Does look as though it is going to take a final swipe at some of us before it clears away though.

[Summer Sun]

No snow has made its way here yet its bitter out though down to 1.7°C with a dew point of -1.5°C

[Alex95]

Tyneside is about to get some heavy snow looking at the radar, and the orange sky out my front door.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Alza

[smogonthetyne]

Heavy now. Car windscreen covered after being clear at 5.15

[Snowmaggedon]

Relatively light snow here in Middlesbrough, is there a chance of it getting any heavier?

[Isolated Frost]

NMM downgrades upper air temps, but also lowers pressure for the next 2 days in our region. Very marginal tomorrow, but potentially quite showery.

[seabreeze86]

Rain has now turned to heavy sleet, i hope the dew point and temp can keep dropping might see some proper snow again.

[Darandio]

Rain has now turned to heavy sleet, i hope the dew point and temp can keep dropping might see some proper snow again.

Was the same here, however it is starting to turn noticeably "snowier" if rather wet.

[tynevalleysnow]

I'm hoping that pnn near north berwick might head for my area

[Darandio]

And now it has gone noticeably colder and it is full on snow.

[gazzac69]

just starting snowing now

[Emma Jayne Agar]

Now snowing, although very wet and not lying.

Also wind seems to have picked up.

[Isolated Frost]

Regarding the +48 view from the NWP 12z's- it goes

1. ECMWF

2. UKMO

3. GEM

4. GFS

ECM and UKMO have a slack E/SE flow on Wednesday with plenty of snow showers in sub -8c air, the GEM is slightly less progressive, but is still very good, while the GFS is shifted roughly 100 miles east from the other major models, with less cold air and a less developed E flow. The ECMWF is ranked better than the UKMO because of the less Scandinavian ridging.

At +72:

1. ECMWF

2. UKMO

3. GFS/GEM

ECMWF suite even better than the UKMO at 72- with a E/SE flow, and a S/SE flow across western Britain, with the atlantic shunted away. However, the UKMO is very similar, though it has slightly larger pressure and more of a S flow over western Britain, it has -10c uppers touching on the east, and the upstream pattern is better regarding the upcoming undercut, so expect the UKMO 96 to be better than the ECMWF 96. The GEM and GFS both to an extent bring in the atlantic before the undercut- and so aren't as good at snow retention. However, the 96 analysis is most important as the models deal with the undercut. We are hoping the ECMWF goes for a NW/W-SE/E progression a la UKMO instead of the S-N progression of the other suites.

[NL]

Heavy snow here in South Shields, laying everywhere, roads and pavements have a decent covering and set for awhile yet..!! Could see around 5-6cm before morning.

[Alex95]

Light snow tarted, doesn't seem wet here.

[Isolated Frost]

At 96- the ECM would be tremendously snowy here, but very marginal close by, and very risky!

1. UKMO

2. ECMWF

3. GFS

4. GEM

Snow starting here now.