North West England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ------>

[cheshire snow]

Well mt little bit of snow that i had has now been washed away,pelting it down with rain

why does a rain belt never fragmate like a snow band......

snow for friday here....yeah right

C.S

[chris78]

Knew it was going to be marginal for lower ground and further west, but this is even more underwhelming, not even a centimetre of crusty frozen slush!

This is the high res GFS from Saturday 12z for this morning, the warning signs of rain for much of the region were on the cards by then despite the crazy ramping in some threads

of course it was...people pick the charts they like....when they see one they dont...its the models fault for flip flopping...or that particular model is always rubbish........

this whole cold spell has been very difficult for the forecasts and every model has flip flopped...so anyone who thought this was nailed was nuts or kidding themselves........and nothing has changed......if you live in an area like me that often misses snow then I cant see anything in the models you will get snow soon

[cfallon]

So your placing your faith in the models when all of them have been all over the place recently, all of them have been very poor this winter and I see no reason to change my viewpoint.

Each to there own but how you can say there will be milder air over the country when the current forecasts say no! I am down for a high if 1c and a low of -4c this week ! Hardly mild! Certainly might be mild in some locations but doubt it

Edited January 14, 2013 by cfallon

[feb1991blizzard]

So your placing your faith in the models when all of them have been all over the place recently, all of them have been very poor this winter and I see no reason to change my viewpoint.

They have been poor but they have been wrong with the mild been pushed back nearer the time, not the other way around.

[UV-RAY]

Each to there own but how you can say there will be milder air over the country when the current forecasts say no! I am down for a high if 1c and a low of -4c this week ! Hardly mild! Certainly might be mild in some locations but doubt it

You need to look at the ensembles, as there are a number of them showing that option with a mobile Westerly set up albeit one which is cold, but we lose the blocking high to our East.

They have been poor but they have been wrong with the mild been pushed back nearer the time, not the other way around.

Indeed Feb 91, but I sense a pattern change from next week looking at the ensembles. Edited January 14, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[cfallon]

Yu need to look at the ensembles, as there are a number of them showing that option with a mobile Westerly set up albeit one which is cold, but we lose the blocking high to our East.

We shall see. What will be will be! Anyhow here it's still pounding down with big flakes! Great to see

[dr snow]

Big flakes and quite heavy now!

[feb1991blizzard]

You need to look at the ensembles, as there are a number of them showing that option with a mobile Westerly set up albeit one which is cold, but we lose the blocking high to our East.

Indeed Feb 91, but I sense a pattern change from next week looking at the ensembles.

Agreed but a lot of them show a couple of blizzards first, GEM, ukmo and ECM now showing potential for some heavy snow.

[Snowmad79]

It's great mate! When you want snow this is what you long for! If this kept up until lunch will have a very nice covering

On top of what we got last night . Could be some road closures around the area. Especially Grains Bar > Saddleworth along that way.

I don't ask for much as long as my area gets cut off from the rest of Oldham = no work

Edited January 14, 2013 by Snowmad79

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like you lot in the east of the region are getting some snow. Location and elevation plus intensity the key. Looking at the traffic cams it's snowing between j16-15 of M6 so not too far away from here the snow boundary lies.

[Storm Animal]

Big fat juicy snow here and a good covering building up ;o)

[cheshire snow]

Looks like you lot in the east of the region are getting some snow. Location and elevation plus intensity the key. Looking at the traffic cams it's snowing between j16-15 of M6 so not too far away from here the snow boundary lies.

Sucks CC

Always within reaching distance but not quite

C.S

Suppose the upside is we dont get upset when the thaw sets in

Edited January 14, 2013 by cheshire snow

[benricky]

Rain/Sleet mix in Wythenshawe. Guess elevation makes the difference today

No chance of it turning to snow later I'm assuming?

[cfallon]

On top of what we got last night . Could be some road closures around the area. Especially Grains Bar > Saddleworth along that way.

I don't ask for much as long as my area gets cut off from the rest of Oldham = no work

Not much to ask for! Shame the Missus took the 4x4 to work!

[UV-RAY]

We shall see. What will be will be! Anyhow here it's still pounding down with big flakes! Great to see

I'm only jealous!!

[cfallon]

I'm only jealous!!

Hey I wish everyone had the snow!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sucks CC

Always within reaching distance but not quite

C.S

Suppose the upside is we dont get upset when the thaw sets in

Sucks to live where we do. My cover from last night has gone

Edited January 14, 2013 by CreweCold

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

snowing but for how long??

[whitewitch]

heavy and sticking - building up nicely on cars. topping up what had fallen last night. wishing now that I hadn't sent my son to school today

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

really heavy snow now

[cfallon]

Heavier now! Not exaggerating! Roads covered

[cheshire snow]

Sucks to live where we do. My cover from last night has gone

same here even stoke has snow at the momemt

whay your thoughts for later in the week,think i know what will, happen

but the swear filter would work overtime lol

C.S

[Jan]

of course it was...people pick the charts they like....when they see one they dont...its the models fault for flip flopping...or that particular model is always rubbish........

this whole cold spell has been very difficult for the forecasts and every model has flip flopped...so anyone who thought this was nailed was nuts or kidding themselves........and nothing has changed......if you live in an area like me that often misses snow then I cant see anything in the models you will get snow soon

I agree, one minute the GFS is a great model then its rubbish and the ECM is the one to follow then its the CMA or whatever, very confusing. Even the most senior meteorolgists have admitted this current setup has been very hard to predict/forecast. If you know your region/area, you know yourself more or less what to expect. I am in with an 80+% chance of snow for Friday, can't see it myself, temps might be forecast correctly etc but I am on very flat land not far from the coast, if I was on a higher elevation 10 miles inland I would be excited. I will continue to read and learn but go with my own instinct aswell

[feb1991blizzard]

A62 scout head, A669 lydgate and up by the church inn will see very difficult driving conditions if this keeps up!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

same here even stoke has snow at the momemt

whay your thoughts for later in the week,think i know what will, happen

but the swear filter would work overtime lol

C.S

Yep snowing heavily in Hanley, just looked at the webcam......that's literally 15 miles up the road! No idea for end of the week mate, it's a tough one to call