London & South East Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013 12z Onwards

[Paul Sherman]

Please no, we don't even need even more bad forecasters on the team

I wonder when we will ever actually accurately predict the weather ahead because so far nobody is able too!

In this country Neil almost impossible!

Was having a chat on facebook the other day with someone and I firmly believe it is easier predicting where a Tornadic Supercell will form in the Great Plains than it is to predict the right or wrong side of marginal for a snow event in this country.

Nightmare scenario!

[nanu]

so far... now watch the downgrade

[High Altitude]

Well Northolt on London's NW edge is reporting 1.1c and 0c dewpoint. Given that that ppn is at least 90mins away...

Current observation (Ruislip)

Temp. 0.2

DP. - 1

[Jasmine]

0c feels like -4c light sleet.

[blackprince]

only one problem it's FI

Well going by what should have been odds on I think this has as much chance of happening

[SMU]

can I just clarify the difference between today & the rest of the week-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011412/UW6-21.GIF?14-17

today we have had a shallow low travel down from the North of the UK- it was expected ( when it was at t72) to travel down the west & the east & SE would stay in the cold air- however as the system arrrived over iceland & split the trajectory was ever so slightly SE instead of south-

as a result being in the western quadrent of the low instead of the eastern quadrent has meant that the milder wedge of air that was originally atlantic origin have permiated from the NW part of the low anticlockwise into the southern part which was over the SE-

This system drifts away south so we get back into the colder air again- the UKMO raw data data suggested uppers of -4c in the west & DP's around 2-

as we head through the next 24/48/72 hours- uppers drop off to -9c widely again & the dewpoints stay at -1c or below-

so we should appreciate that today was probably the warmest day of the cold spell & that things will turn colder by the day- culminating in -2 maxes on weds if there is any snow on the ground-

the T96 & 120 UKMO charts show winds strengthening from the SE which may drag in some flurries - but also when the atlantic arrives the undercut will be from deep europe & the rain will turn to snow for ALL of our region-

the slower the low pushes towards the UK the longer the snow for us- if the low fragments at 138 instead of pushing through we may see ALL snow...

so watch out for the rest of the week & be gone all that wet cr*p tongight.,.

S

[Snowman31]

Do we think the showers in the NW will hit us? hope so

[Marie]

Temp here is still holding pretty high really 3.5 and dewpoint is 2.4 ,really need it too drop .

[Sno' problem]

ppn is headed towards SE direction which includes Bexhill.

Let's see the ppn get closer.

That ppn is still holding quite well, could provide an unexpected dusting for a few of us, especially those in Oxfordshire, Bucks and Herts.

Next couple of runs should indicate how the ppn is holding after sunset.

[Coast]

*Lives in hope!!*

[fine wine]

We were lucky and have received approx 7cm of snow here in North Essex so it sounds like the BBC and Meto were spot on with their predictions. They were also very clear to mention it would be wet snow or sleet further south.

[Biggin]

Ah!!! Just as I predicted earlier. Its getting dark. Dont say I dont get some things right!! OK off to the pub.

[Coast]

I will raise my glass to this forum remaining a friendly place.

So say all of us!

[Team Jo]

Believe me, I am just as disappointed as anyone at the lack of white stuff, but please, let's try and keep this thread a little buoyant eh? Lots of people saw snow, don't be bitter if you didn't. It's just the weather. I'm still really excited *cautiously* for the rest of the week.

Oddball says it MUCH better than me......

[Buzzit]

Its looking marginal in Middlesex tonight (have being waiting to use that one) Theres hope for us all yet !

Edited January 14, 2013 by Buzzit

[Neilsouth]

In this country Neil almost impossible!

Was having a chat on facebook the other day with someone and I firmly believe it is easier predicting where a Tornadic Supercell will form in the Great Plains than it is to predict the right or wrong side of marginal for a snow event in this country.

Nightmare scenario!

Well said and I agree

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sleet attack from the north !

[john pike]

tonights ukmo

ovenight will be a close call between snow and wintry showers

[lawrenk]

Haven't had time to read all the posts but seen a few daft ones to be fair. Probably already been said, but the reason we get excited (I include myself) about the prospect of snow is that it doesn't happen very often and is not the norm for our little island. The fact that I still have vivid memories of '87 and '91 is testament to that.

If this week is as good as it gets for this winter, which with February to go I suspect it won't be, it will still beat many of the "wilderness years" of the 90's!

[Southender]

Any reports from Chelmsford area?

Did they get lucky as well.

Mad to think North Essex got up to 7cm and South Essex got zilch. Essex is about 40 miles North to South.

Just shows the fine lines when it comes to snow.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Shrimper

[john mac]

Any reports from Chelmsford area?

Did they get lucky as well.

Mad to think North Essex got up to 7cm and South Essex got zilch.

Apparently Epping got a couple of inches just up the road from me.

[Lampostwatcher]

4.2cm not bad i predicted less but as always everything will always be downgraded by the metoffice the warnings that they put out in advance are to cover there arses not ours they are only thinking of there reputation at the end of the day I always take the bbc forecast with a large pinch of salt even with rain , cloud , sun and snow

As 60% of the time IMO they are wrong even in a short period of weather say 6 hours and I don't ever think they will improve

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Perhaps we might even get an upgrade to this - we are due one!

[A Wintry Mix]

Oh good sleet!!!

[ZONE 51]

Hi all, it looks like we should see some persistant snow forming tonight/snow showers, just been looking through the charts, NAE and GFS both indicate snow across our region into the early hours of Tuesday, this time round it going to all be snow

Thickness 850/1000 hpa

the North Sea helping to brew up convective clouds enhancing heavy snowfall near the east coasts with some snow moving right across towards London for example.

Surface winds-GFS

Surface winds Nae

Surface winds-NAE

I expect Kent to be in the firing line overnight for the heavy snowfall and up into Suffolk/Norfolk/Essex, although some less significant snow could affect further west into areas as far as the far West Sussex/London west.

Staying cold with snow showers and some snow events at times in the days ahead

ESS