South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[DanDorsetUK]

Yellow Alert of Snow for South West England :

Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay & Wiltshire

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358164860

Yes but look at the weather impact matrix for that, still low cofidence

[gottolovethisweather]

I just cannot see this being a snow event friday look at the temps for the south and west all week, warmest cold spell i can remember lol not even any frost yet for me! 4.8oc here in Bournemouth, just goes to show what a load of rubbish following charts can be, this was meat to be snowmageddon a few days ago, and a winter to remember yep will be remembered all right, full of let downs!

Ok, here's Dorset 12z ensembles from yesterday, just to hopefully set your mind at rest. Firstly the T850s.

Now the suggested minimums moving on through time, from the rather unreliable GFS 6z.

When looking at that final chart in isolation, I would suggest you enjoy Tuesday through Thursday minimums as the GFS 6z thereafter, suggests that the atlantic will return.

[latitude]

1.2c IMBY FWIW.

Quite a range of temperatures, mine 4.0. One or two degrees warmer than BBC forecast.

Thanks 'gottolovethisweather' for your temp. For What Its Worth, as you say.

Thanks to the other members who gave me an idea of the local temperatures, for what its worth its very interesting.

Edited January 15, 2013 by latitude

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes but look at the weather impact matrix for that, still low cofidence

Soon be spring too.

Just a note to all and it does come from experience, SNOW IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST ACCURATELY EVEN AT <T+3 HOURS.

There are many reasons (five or more) why this will be the case and I don't have time to go through them all.

A Channel low or a low coming up from the SW approaches is enough to make over 90% of the UK population jealous, so just feel priveleged that we are talking about this system in the first place.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Soon be spring too.

Oooo, that'll be nice

[Mapantz]

What i would say about that current warning is that if you live somewhere in the middle of it or slightly to the east of it, i think you're likely to be in a good zone even if there's adjustment in the next few days.

[liam300]

Ok, here's Dorset 12z ensembles from yesterday, just to hopefully set your mind at rest. Firstly the T850s.

Now the suggested minimums moving on through time, from the rather unreliable GFS 6z.

When looking at that final chart in isolation, I would suggest you enjoy Tuesday through Thursday minimums as the GFS 6z thereafter, suggests that the atlantic will return.

GFS has not been the most reliable this winter has it. ECM and UKMO have been more reliable with GFS back tracking.

[Gibby]

Oh for goodness sake one person says they have lost faith in it being snow after reading tweets then in the very next post someone else says the Meto have a severe weather warning out now for snow on Friday! I wish Id never found these forums Im slowley going mad!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can understand how you feel but the forum is for all people interested in the weather whether they be knowledgeable or not and it is hard to strike a balance for newbies between who to believe, who is exaggerating and who might be mis-reading or over analyzing data. My best advice is not necessarily good advice for the forum's post ratings but it's best to just look at the outputs and forums twice a day, shortly after the 00z morning output releases and after the evening 12zs from about 7pm. This then gives you good cross section analysis of up to date data. Looking throughout the day is not advisable for your health as over analysis and confusion can result from too much information and skew the facts.

[Iceberg]

I think some peeps maybe need to chill out in the nicest possible way.

I still have an updated 24 hrs of continous snow for friday (actually it starts thursday night and continues as snow until saturday morning), we have a tweet (the last one from ian which says met office going for snow friday for the west country.) and we have an advanced weather warning from devon to glos for snow on friday with upto 15cm. What more do people want at this range.

It might come off it might not, but lets wait and see

[DanDorsetUK]

Soon be spring too.

Yep ive written off this winter now personally for us on the coast, looking at the strength of the Jet like i said last week, its powering up, looking very wet again, not good after all the rain we have had! I just cant see it changing, think there is far to much straw clutching going on and too many getting hyped up about the SSW

[124alex]

3c and mostly sunny! Snow on cars and grass in shaded areas

[smogonthetyne]

Don't whatever you do read the Far North of England discussion thread

[Bolton67]

Ok Ok, but I DID run the animation at the time and you know what, they've bloody well fizzled out.

That's the Northampton snow shield for you !!!!!!

[Mapantz]

Yep ive written off this winter now personally for us on the coast, looking at the strength of the Jet like i said last week, its powering up, looking very wet again, not good after all the rain we have had! I just cant see it changing, think there is far to much straw clutching going on and too many getting hyped up about the SSW

I disagree with that. Upstream patterns look good for the cold to come back even if the Atlantic breaks through for a small period of time. The SSW effects are not being felt yet and there's already a second warming. There's so much to play for in the next four weeks or so.

[A.J]

Just got in from work, and read through this mornings posts and all I can say is, Jeez, that was painful to read. If I were a psychiatrist reading this thread, I'd have some of you sectioned for your own good, talk about hanging on the every word of individual posters and model output!......Please, for your own sanity, take long, deep, breaths, chill out with your favourite tipple or 'Jamaican Woodbine' whatever floats your boat and please help make the thread more bareable to read...cheers!

[Lynxus]

Think I may need to go get a pacemaker installed. I cant cope.

[Dorsetbred]

There's so much to play for in the next four weeks or so.

Oh no are you saying Spring is on hold

(Just joking, you're right, just trying to keep the thread from delving into the abyss called "Son of MOD" )

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS has not been the most reliable this winter has it. ECM and UKMO have been more reliable with GFS back tracking.

This isn't a model suite discussion thread but I use the GFS 12z and only the 12z suite when determining trends.

Trends can and are determined by following the ensembles. Granted, if only we had access to the MOGREPS or even the ECM ensembles, because then I would be paying more attention to them. I simply work with what I have to hand and I have learnt over the years, to not react to one model run in isolation.

As ever, it is up to whoever to do whatever they wish and all I can do is to advise people to not react against the general consensus.

[cerneman]

I disagree with that. Upstream patterns look good for the cold to come back even if the Atlantic breaks through for a small period of time. The SSW effects are not being felt yet and there's already a second warming. There's so much to play for in the next four weeks or so.

Fully agree, Winter not yet over, We again have some interesting weather for our region in next few days, At least we have something to talk about for next few days,

[DanDorsetUK]

I disagree with that. Upstream patterns look good for the cold to come back even if the Atlantic breaks through for a small period of time. The SSW effects are not being felt yet and there's already a second warming. There's so much to play for in the next four weeks or so.

Yes but we are already through the middle of January. days are getting longer now and warming up, SSW does not always mean cold weather! The trend all winter so far is for the cold to come only for it to die back before it really has a chance to get going, looking at current gfs the cold pool does try to come back but doesnt make it, this has been the trend all winter so far! I hope i am wrong i really do i love the cold weather love it! Love snow, i would move to the artic if i could lol. Hope im proved wrong!!

[Snowangel-MK]

New thread coming!

Please finish off any posts or hold off posting charts etc and I'll link new one shortly....

[A.J]

oh, ok, I'm aleady starting one, but hey ho, be my guest

[gottolovethisweather]

I can understand how you feel but the forum is for all people interested in the weather whether they be knowledgeable or not and it is hard to strike a balance for newbies between who to believe, who is exaggerating and who might be mis-reading or over analyzing data. My best advice is not necessarily good advice for the forum's post ratings but it's best to just look at the outputs and forums twice a day, shortly after the 00z morning output releases and after the evening 12zs from about 7pm. This then gives you good cross section analysis of up to date data. Looking throughout the day is not advisable for your health as over analysis and confusion can result from too much information and skew the facts.

Thank you Gibby, wise words indeed.

[Costa Del Fal]

Sadly looks like Cornwall's snow chance on Friday is beginning to downgrade a bit but more changes ahead im sure. Angle of attack less good so far.

On a better note, WHAT A STUNNING DAY IN FALMOUTH. Long sunny spells and its warm and pleasant in the sun. The breeze is cold but find some shelter, its a gorgeous day!!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Blizzards

[gottolovethisweather]

New thread coming!

Please finish off any posts or hold off posting charts etc and I'll link new one shortly....

THANK CHRIST FOR THAT. I'VE SIMPLY RUN OUT OF APPROPRIATE MEDICATION FOR NOW.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather