South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[Bristawl Si]

Just got a feeling the block wont be strong enough for us in the SW with the colder uppers being mixed out giving us a wintry mix to start then to changing to rain. I would of liked to see the 06z match last nights 18z. As I said before the 12z will be interesting.

Taking the 06z alone, the East will do well again.

Goes right against the latest UK METO fax and charts though - quite a big difference really. (sorry can't post charts at mo).

If u take the charts at face value we've gone from "Blizzard in SW from days gone by" to possibility of more flooding, all in the space of 24 hours! And that's for a 24-hour period starting on Friday in real time! Exhausting stuff!

[Bristawl Si]

Another message from Matt Hugo;

Continued agreement from within the EC ENS for the colder to persist across most areas well into next week, especially away from the W/SW

That's a projected downgrade in itself i think. We were at least hanging on to cold and snow til next Monday, in yday morning's forecasts.

My dreaded north/east v south/west splits coming into play....again!

[latitude]

Goes right against the latest UK METO fax and charts though - quite a big difference really. (sorry can't post charts at mo).

If u take the charts at face value we've gone from "Blizzard in SW from days gone by" to possibility of more flooding, all in the space of 24 hours! And that's for a 24-hour period starting on Friday in real time! Exhausting stuff!

Yes, I did quote one your posts earlier saying if the front stays out in the Atlantic its cold upgrade for the SW. Hopefully this will happen, that could be mean no snow event, but keeping the cold and dry weather is more important if you ask me.

So if the front does push in, as I said it coud be a wintry mix then rain (06z).

[noggin]

Looks like your gonna be trying to build a snowman with rain down in the south west! Last few runs have advanced the frontal system far enough east to allow warmer air to filter into! I wouldn't hold any hope for anything worthy of note anywhere In thr region! Looks like north/east midlands will be the sweet spot!

May I ask "Where are you?".

[SilverWolf]

Temperatures at be dropping, live on a shady hillside prone to ice days, and a slight frost has formed in the last hour!

[Beast of Plympton]

Well netweather have downgraded friday snow chance IMBY friday, will just wait for the 12z and see what that says and ignore the 6z for a minute!!

[Jason74]

Yes, best wait for the 12z to (hopefully) get a clearer picture of what may happen re. friday and the weekend.

[Nights King]

This is abit of a poor cold spell for southwest so far and unless we see a decent event on friday it looks like being a non event. Can't help but feel that its not a good sign its not even wednesday and we are seeing downgrades to the event. We have yet to see a hard frost!

When is this SSW going to deliver I'm losing hope.

[TwisterGirl81]

Well netweather have downgraded friday snow chance IMBY friday, will just wait for the 12z and see what that says and ignore the 6z for a minute!!

Don't you just love downgrades, it's one after the other this winter

Edited January 15, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[TwisterGirl81]

This is abit of a poor cold spell for southwest so far and unless we see a decent event on friday it looks like being a non event. Can't help but feel that its not a good sign its not even wednesday and we are seeing downgrades to the event. We have yet to see a hard frost!

When is this SSW going to deliver I'm losing hope.

I'm trying to remain positive but like you I feel like it's been dissapointment after dissapointment this winter in regards to snow for the Southwest...Lets see what Friday brings....Fingers and toes crossed...I think if it's just rain and sleet in Devon and Cornwall I will scream! lol

[Jason74]

This is abit of a poor cold spell for southwest so far and unless we see a decent event on friday it looks like being a non event. Can't help but feel that its not a good sign its not even wednesday and we are seeing downgrades to the event. We have yet to see a hard frost!

When is this SSW going to deliver I'm losing hope.

Think GP has stated it (effects of the SSW) will begin end of the month/going into early Feb

[gottolovethisweather]

Just to clarify, those speaking of downgrades, WE ARE NOT THERE YET!

The atlantic has to win out in the end, BUT, the only downgrade that might come is when anybody (and we're all sometimes guilty of this) expects too much.

There will be some further snow for some and there will be cold rain for others.

EDIT: what a beautiful day it is out there too.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

Don't you just love downgrades, it's one after the other this winter

I know.... has someone from the southwest slept with another forecasting system behind the GFS's back? If you have, move to kent! It doesn't seem to like us at the moment!!

Anyway, I will remain positive in hope for the 12z and an upgrade!! Hmmm..

[latitude]

This is abit of a poor cold spell for southwest so far and unless we see a decent event on friday it looks like being a non event. Can't help but feel that its not a good sign its not even wednesday and we are seeing downgrades to the event. We have yet to see a hard frost!

When is this SSW going to deliver I'm losing hope.

Well im still waiting for my first frost! The colder weather started last Saturday. To 'gotllovethisweather's delight I have just had three consequitive nights of rain.

Today and into Thursday look coldish (3 degrees IMBY and 7 degrees in Devon), then what happens Friday is anyones guess.

Bit of patience needed, we will probably know by tomorrows 0z.

[fergieweather]

Yes, I did quote one your posts earlier saying if the front stays out in the Atlantic its cold upgrade for the SW. Hopefully this will happen, that could be mean no snow event, but keeping the cold and dry weather is more important if you ask me.

So if the front does push in, as I said it coud be a wintry mix then rain (06z).

UKMO currently anticipate return to average temps through weekend but only after potential for disruptive snow event. Nothing in their analysis of 00z output steers away from notion of growing likelihood of a very snowy breakdown from W during Fri. Strong MOGREPS support on snow probability.

[gottolovethisweather]

I know.... has someone from the southwest slept with another forecasting system behind the GFS's back? If you have, move to kent! It doesn't seem to like us at the moment!!

Anyway, I will remain positive in hope for the 12z and an upgrade!! Hmmm..

That reminds of the this particular model tease emoticon.

Well im still waiting for my first frost! The colder weather started last Saturday. To 'gotllovethisweather's delight I have just had three consequitive nights of rain.

Today and into Thursday look coldish (3 degrees IMBY and 7 degrees in Devon), then what happens Friday is anyones guess.

Bit of patience needed, we will probably know by tomorrows 0z.

Where the .... did you get that idea from?

Just be careful young man and stick to your model analysis rather than model host analysis.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

That reminds of the this particular model tease emoticon.

Where the .... did you get that idea from?

Just be careful young man and stick to your model analysis rather than mod host analysis.

Haha!! She should see a doctor about that.... Back to the models... ummm its a bit cold!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[AWD]

UKMO currently anticipate return to average temps through weekend but only after potential for disruptive snow event. Nothing in their analysis of 00z output steers away from notion of growing likelihood of a very snowy breakdown from W during Fri. Strong MOGREPS support on snow probability.

Thankyou for that Ian. Still looking good for widespread snowfall across the West Country on Friday before less cold air makes inroads through the weekend and melts it away.

Back to the initial thoughts of a couplets days ago by myself and others,

Thanks Ian.

[latitude]

UKMO currently anticipate return to average temps through weekend but only after potential for disruptive snow event. Nothing in their analysis of 00z output steers away from notion of growing likelihood of a very snowy breakdown from W during Fri. Strong MOGREPS support on snow probability.

Thanks again Ian F. Most welcome.

[divadee]

To be honest a day of snow on Friday even if it disappeared by Saturday would suit me! Just no more rain!

[AWD]

To be honest a day of snow on Friday even if it disappeared by Saturday would suit me! Just no more rain!

Yeah, I just want snowfall now. lol.

Looking on the flip side, that also ties in with GP's thoughts of a less cold period for a week or so before renewed cold into February. There seems to be "expert agreement" on cold weather into February,

Anyway, getting ahead of myself now, lets see how Friday develops over the coming days.

[Snowkissed]

I think there is talk of a second shot of snow for us at the end of the Month on the MOD thread. However, it is always next week or tomorrow ... tbh I do my best to take each day as it comes but it never works, I'm always hoping for the promised holy white grail

[latitude]

To be honest a day of snow on Friday even if it disappeared by Saturday would suit me! Just no more rain!

Depends if you mean 'no more rain' as in, no more flooding?

Any snow will melt anyway, so flooding will be an issue.

[AWD]

I think there is talk of a second shot of snow for us at the end of the Month on the MOD thread. However, it is always next week or tomorrow ... tbh I do my best to take each day as it comes but it never works, I'm always hoping for the promised holy white grail

Who the hell is forecasting snow for us at the end of the month.

They need shooting.

[124alex]

Sunshine here!

TemP 1c

Snow that fell last night is still on the grass and cars