Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Harsh Climate]

What ever happens now, the UKMO has nailed this upcoming phase in our weather in which the other models have followed! Albeit GFS kicking and screaming .

[snowice]

THE LPS IN THE ATLANIC ARE GOING BACKWARDS

[mountain shadow]

Well, the Met Office will understand the dynamics of the NAE better than us so we'll just have to wait and see. They ditched the previous run so I don't see any reason why this is run is any different and so so different from every other model output.

[georgiedre]

18z NAE still going for snow in the west on Thurs?! http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Spreading east and turning to rain in south! Very strange for NAE to be so different to other models at t48rs!

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

and bbc and met office barely make it to the coast of wales

[Harsh Climate]

-11 over the snowfields of otley, very nice chart

[Dean E]

GFS pushes the cold uppers over Scandinavia closer around +150hrs... now a trend as this has appeared every run for the past day

PS: Ignore the NAE till at least 48 to 24 hours before the event! Its never reliable at this stage!

SM

Edited January 15, 2013 by SnowMania

[Rob K]

Cold enough for snow from direct westerlies in Ireland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

The world has gone mad!

[Harsh Climate]

The more I watch these runs, the more I think we are destined for a big north easterly down the line!

You can just sense it the way each run get's a slight bit better and heights over scandinavia look more and more promising.

[Jax]

Looks like an Icy grabber getting ready to pick up the UK and drop us in the Arctic.

Anyway, seems to be a good run for the reliable with cold not leaving us anytime soon. However, I would like to see model agreement including the high resolution ones before I start worrying my work colleagues with a childish dance in the office.

Do the dance anyway, give them something to worry about.

In the office I always get asked about stuff like this.

on a higher note, the cold does appear to be more longer resident now.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

That block bounces back the Atlantic at t126.

And I would say the S, S/W and W would see some significant wintry precip in all that before it moves across the UK. Prime area does look to be W Midlands for a snowfest IMHO (but it is just a HO)

[rory o gorman]

Cold enough for snow from direct westerlies in Ireland

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1202.png

The world has gone mad!

Cold enough for snow from direct westerlies in Ireland

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1202.png

The world has gone mad!

and we will take it . -6 upper strong westerlies good chance of thundersnow i would expect in western Ireland

[nick sussex]

The more I watch these runs, the more I think we are destined for a big north easterly down the line!

You can just sense it the way each run get's a slight bit better and heights over scandinavia look more and more promising.

Yes the more I watch this output the more I think that these fronts are going to have a hard job trying to dislodge the colder air.

At the rate of sw corrections I wonder what the output will look like by tomorrow night.

[Chris W]

UK in the battle between...cold air and colder air...

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

Edit - as a geographical aside, look at Florida in FI:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130115/18/183/usamaxtemp.png

Edited January 15, 2013 by Chris W

[Continental Climate]

well the 18z was a feeble attempt from the atlantic wasnt it? At this juncture in full retreat http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png, with our resurgent block fully in charge and the bitter easterlies get going again!!

[ChartViewer]

CMA144.......Has obviously gone off on one and maybe laughing as ive wasted 5 years of my life watching this one roll out in just a week (will continue monitoring though) ...NCMRWF where r u

[TheHumph]

Yes the more I watch this output the more I think that these fronts are going to have a hard job trying to dislodge the colder air.

At the rate of sw corrections I wonder what the output will look like by tomorrow night.

Do you not think the output will correct back a little more E'wards tomorrow as is sometimes the case between the 18Z and the 0Z or is there a pattern slowly emerging here Nick?

[kold weather]

Ok just had a better look at the NAE and other models. Most models do develop a weak frontal feature ahead of the main system, but nearly all just have it in situ. The NAE for some reason takes it way east of the other runs and forces it ahead with much milder air push into the west.

I'd imagine for now its just the NAE going off on one. Of course it does need to be watched, but until it starts getting more support, treat it as a total outlier and effectively dismiss it.

[That ECM]

I love the way we have pages of posts talking about charts upto t120. Rather than having to wait for the first half an hour of the run to get to charts that show a little potential.

I know from posts that IF has posted that the meto are going against the nae at this time but I would like them to fall in line as well.

[pages]

T186 here comes GPS brief less cold period before heights transfer to Greenland?

[ChartViewer]

T186 here comes GPS brief less cold period before heights transfer to Greenland?

CMA was hinting at this last night and this morning

[pages]

T186 here comes GPS brief less cold period before heights transfer to Greenland?

Yep here comes the proper cold lol

[UV-RAY]

Back to the model output, I really don't know why people place much faith in the NAE, it's been pretty pants for as long as I can remember. There will be slight variations in the +72hr range, but I think the general pattern of the block holding firm and any mild incursions struggling to make it into SW parts, looks pretty solid to me.

Edited January 15, 2013 by shuggee

[snowice]

I know you cant trust this chart but at least Ireland is in the mix!

[Harsh Climate]

Have tonights fax charts come out yet??

Edited January 15, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Just for fun way out into FI

[pages]

This run is rubbish don't think the -16 are going to make it lol