South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[gottolovethisweather]

Hopefully my garden will look like this again tomorrow

Can anyone guesstimate how much snow that is?

6 inches.

[caz100]

i dont agree at all anything that comes in from the west is likely to hit cornwall i cant see it missing cornwall then running up through the channel then north again not because rude either would be a rather strange thing for a weather system to do.

think we are to warm, so it comes in as rain and then hits the cold which you have further up..... hope we get some and have been surprised before

Edited January 17, 2013 by caz100

[Fred Sykes]

Its raining here in Frome. Not snow or sleet just rain, not heavy. I think it`ll change to snow though as winds swing S.E ahead of the main frontal system coming in.

Same in Warminster, although flakes starting to come down now! How do you think we will fair tomorrow? I think at least 10cm?

[gottolovethisweather]

All snow for us all.even the chap at the Isle of Wight weather centre has changed his mind and forecasting at least 5cm for us..happy hunting everyone :-)

Still not a gimmee I'm afraid, not being negative just being cautious.

[Fred Sykes]

6 inches.

That looks like 1.5 - 2 inches to me?

[Mark Parsons]

Here, here ... anyone got a whiff of this happening ?

Near the coast will do ok, just that it will start as rain then turn to snow, there is a delay in how much snow settles because of the time it takes to turn and then the snow has to get a hold to settle where as if it starts as snow then obviously there is a greater risk of disruption with greater accumulations, this is why we by the coast only have a yellow warning. So I will stick my neck out and say that most coastal areas away from Cornwall will get some lying snow some more than others, this has usually been the case from 43 years experiance of living by the coast with this kind of set up.

[gottolovethisweather]

Newbury's gonna get pasted. I can feel it in my bones! Woohoo, bring it on!!!!!!!

No comment.

[Dean E]

Here, here ... anyone got a whiff of this happening ?

As a fellow southern, I am very much aware of the coastal rain chance compared to the snow chance. I bet you guys have had rain here and seen the amount of snow in Petersfield just to our north, always depressing.

But those have had winds either from a SW or S. This event is rather different, with winds from the SE. something that is also very interesting is that Northern France is much colder than us. Most northern France cities and towns are reporting -1 to -3 this afternoon. With temperatures there much colder over night, the SE winds will basically push that colder 'drier' air over the channel and to our shores.

With this sort of temperatures, I would be surprised to say the least if anywhere from Poole eastwards got rain, even right on the coast.

By this evening, we should have a better grip on the situation

SM

[gottolovethisweather]

Looking good still although slightly confused by mid day bbc weather I watched as it shows heavy snow sweeping through and going east? I thought it was going to stall over wales and the west or even pep up again into the evening?

You will remain confused until it starts falling in the Mendips, mull, thats my suggestion FWIW.

[Joneseye]

Hopefully my garden will look like this again tomorrow

Can anyone guesstimate how much snow that is?

Looks about 8-10cm

[Iceberg]

Latest meto ukv model illustrates very well the latest thinking with the alerts as well as recent change to forecasts for things to still more.

I has precip at 5cm / hr over the red zone for approx 6 hrs. This does extend south to the mendips but doesn't hang around as long only 3 hrs hence the comments re 11 inches for mendips and cots. Just to add you get snow in these areas for longer its just this more intense period.

It shows much slower movement of the front and keeps it hanging around in east of the region until 3-4 pm.

It should be said that it also has some stronger pulses from Yeovil southwards which travels west to east, regions such as northern new forest might be pleasantly surprised if this came off.

Generally the precip is much more organised with a band of snow with a rate of 2-3cm lasting for 5 hrs or so.

Ukv only goes out 36 hrs but the general feeling is that at approx 4-5pm Friday the precip stalls and starts to move nw I.e it might come back over for Friday night.

[gottolovethisweather]

That looks like 1.5 - 2 inches to me?

I always exaggerate, especially in the company of female model types.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mumbles]

What's my outlook here...times, amount etc..?

[Schmalex]

No comment.

Is that a "yes, I couldn't possibly comment", no comment..........?

[Iceberg]

Massive update from the nae for precip totals coming up in the 12z nae.......BE PREPARED...red alert might well be seriously extended from this..

[GazzzaV6]

As a fellow southern, I am very much aware of the coastal rain chance compared to the snow chance. I bet you guys have had rain here and seen the amount of snow in Petersfield just to our north, always depressing.

But those have had winds either from a SW or S. This event is rather different, with winds from the SE. something that is also very interesting is that Northern France is much colder than us. Most northern France cities and towns are reporting -1 to -3 this afternoon. With temperatures there much colder over night, the SE winds will basically push that colder 'drier' air over the channel and to our shores.

With this sort of temperatures, I would be surprised to say the least if anywhere from Poole eastwards got rain, even right on the coast.

By this evening, we should have a better grip on the situation

SM

Thanks for the update. Great insight. Hope you are right too.

[gottolovethisweather]

Is that a "yes, I couldn't possibly comment", no comment..........?

No comment.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

Hopefully my garden will look like this again tomorrow

Can anyone guesstimate how much snow that is?

Not quite as much as you will get in the 12 hours from first thing tomorrow morning fella!!!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Coast

[theprophecyman]

Massive update from the nae for precip totals coming up in the 12z nae.......BE PREPARED...red alert might well be seriously extended from this..

mmmmmm.... What areas Iceberg?? cheers

[Ali1977]

What makes you think there are precip upgrades on the way Iceberg?

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
altered to refelct original question

[Davey80]

Is basingstoke in the firing line at all?

[lettice]

all together now

Have never seen or heard that song before,

Just love it and sums us all up in here when the snow comes

Thanks for sharing

[Lynxus]

Light snow here

[textmum]

Snowflakes are falling, I can see them out the window, so excited!! :-)

[jessandjon]

Light snow here

Where are you?