South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[Wilxy]

I ment as in snow turning to rain at some point tomorrow?

[kernowman]

I was hoping for another movement West in the charts today, alas looks as though that isn't going to happen now so it's just rain for us in West Cornwall. Going to be so envious of the rest of you in the region tomorrow, have fun and take care out there. Lots of photos as well please.

[TimMB]

I ment as in snow turning to rain at some point tomorrow?

According to the Met Office, no.

[gottolovethisweather]

Thats a nice, good update from the metoffice i think ( For everyone! )

Now i just need that red area 50miles east hehehe . I promise not to be greedy!

GOOD LUCK ALL! This is a great update.

15:30 GFS will be VERY interesting

I must say you confuse the Lettuce out of me sometimes.

Like the snow event itself, one minute you're on a full on UPGRADE and then its DOWNGRADE time.

Please don't let this place become like certain other areas of these forums.

A note to all.

Any well constructed and detailed anaylsis which can be provided WILL be especially important, from this point forward when you bear in mind, tomorrow's travel plans.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Oh no a MOD threader in disguise...

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
hidden original post

[cerneman]

Check out Amber warnings, Very coastle fringes will have snow in intense precipitation, SE wind will assist

Edited January 17, 2013 by cerneman

[divadee]

Check out Amber warnings, Very coastly fringes will have snow in intense precipitation, SE wind will assist

That's what I'm hoping for!

[khodds]

What we may find tomorrow is that red warning updated at very short notice. Remember this happening in 2010 I think it was.... Off to work now, but will be popping on here for updates! Finish at 5 just in time for the ECM.

[kumquat]

I was hoping for another movement West in the charts today, alas looks as though that isn't going to happen now so it's just rain for us in West Cornwall. Going to be so envious of the rest of you in the region tomorrow, have fun and take care out there. Lots of photos as well please.

Here's hoping for something for you lot this winter:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/cornwall/hi/people_and_places/newsid_9238000/9238503.stm

[Andy hoyland]

Hi guys, I'm new to the forum and model watching in general, I teach geography at secondary level and am fascinated with meteorology. When I get a chance I would love to learn how to draw my own conclusions from the models but for now I have just been following all of your expertise.

I live in Poole and know that we are renown for having a 'snow shield', like most of you guys, I'm sure, my friends are getting pretty annoyed with me getting their hopes up and them being smashed by rain in stead of snow. I have ramped to the extreme about tomorrow but am slightly worried about this event only falling as snow tomorrow. Realistically, taking into account wind direction, dew points, etc what are our chances here in Poole?

Thank you in advance for your time and good luck for the upcoming events! It's going to be epic!!

Andy

[Wilxy]

So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !

Because the winds are going to come off france later in a SE'rly.

[dancing daisy]

Serious post shocker from me.

Can we please make sure that we all check on the oldies etc. This is looking far more serious than a bit of pretty snow to make everyone smile and for us to play in. As we all know, extreme weather like this can have a really bad knock on effect for those who are elderly, have disabilities...

In Dec 10 my neighbour got really peed off with me knocking on her door asking her if she needed cat food.

[rowieboyz]

I'm in between Brentor and Lydford, been out sorting the horses out since 8am (when the snow started) so just starting to catch up now. I think with regarding Devon, elevation may be a major key in who sees the rain first or at all. I think if we don't see anything tomorrow, there's a great chance next week of potentially seeing some of the white stuff. I doubt those in Princetown will miss out!

This is roughly when the snow is surposed to turn to rain but with the 850hPa uppers around -4 to -5 sitting close to Devon, all it takes is a small shift west and Devon might join in with the fun. I know with snow there are many parts of the jigsaw to comprehend but if we can get the cold in, the snow will follow. Will see what the 12z say tonight or probably best (and probably best for our blood pressure as well!) to just wait and see come Friday morning Hopefully I've got that right! Been lurking since August and been slowly teaching myself regarding reading the models and also trying my best to make sense of understanding the strat as well. On another note I'd like to thank everyone on Netweather for educating me and also realising what career path I should follow! Hoping to get a look about at the Met Office in Exeter next month and see what qualifications I need to join in the action!

Welcome alayna

[Wilxy]

Blizzards it is then tomorrow

[Coast]

Well here's a lot of green that is going to make us all very happy!

http://www.snow-fore.../static/uk/full

[theprophecyman]

Serious post shocker from me.

Can we please make sure that we all check on the oldies etc. This is looking far more serious than a bit of pretty snow to make everyone smile and for us to play in. As we all know, extreme weather like this can have a really bad knock on effect for those who are elderly, have disabilities...

In Dec 10 my neighbour got really peed off with me knocking on her door asking her if she needed cat food.

Already on the case, have my milk and bread order for later on.......

[Bristawl Si]

So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !

Tomorrow's another day!

[cerneman]

So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !

Winds should pick up and in intense precipitation will fall snow,

[jtay]

In Dec 10 my neighbour got really peed off with me knocking on her door asking her if she needed cat food.

Old people don't eat cat food.

[offerman]

All i can say is WELL DONE IAN FERGUSSON, He predicted the mid Jan cold spell back in Early December and he also said this snow event back at very start of the week.

[Frank Trough]

So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !

is it because the warnings are for tomorrow morning rather than now?

[barlow08]

Still light snow bembridge iow

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Warning of Snow for South West England :

Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Swindon, Bournemouth & Poole

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2100 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

A band of snow, heavy in places, will spread northeastwards across Wales and the southwestern half of England, during Friday morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening across much of Wales, the Midlands, southern and parts of southeast England. Winds will strengthen, leading to drifting of lying snow.

Many parts of the Red Warning area are likely to have 20-30 cm of snow with strong southeasterly winds causing blizzards, severe drifting of lying snow and thus severe disruption. The public should avoid all non-essential journeys.

Elsewhere, accumulations of more than 5-10 cm of snow will occur quite widely, with 15 cm in some western parts of the Amber area, falling within 3-6 hours. The public should be prepared for disruption, including altering travel plans.

Please watch for updates to these warnings.

Issued at: 1230 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=B6E6F732-EFED-CEEE-6891-4300E7116807_3_SE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358337660

[djpaulbailey]

So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !

Snowing Here!!!

[Mapantz]

So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !

There's reports of rain, sleet and snow in places but it's down to a weak upper occlusion and slack windflow. The stronger occlusion that pushes in tomorrow will have stronger winds from a south easterly. You'll see plenty of snow tomorrow.