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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

A.J

By A.J
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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Hubby just said very light snow falling here in wells. NW radar says rain? Wierd.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

DREAMLAND SYNOPTICS. yahoo.gif

When does anybody think this the cold spell will end then? gathering.gif

Going by every other model apart from the GFS then i think it will be a while away yet. Possibly mid Feb

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offerman Experienced

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Now very light snow in Frome, just small light flakes not heavy.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Judging by the 6z NMM lite animation I've just run, folk should also prepare for some wind-driven snow during the early part of the event.

I am talking winds in excess of 30mph here, albeit for a brief period and prone coastal locations may well get gusts in the range of 40 to 50mph.

In terms of snow, things may be marginal at first, in the usual locations but the BBC (MetO affiliated) forecasts I have seen, show widespread reasonable amounts of SNOW and Cornwall getting in on the act eventually, later into the event.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Now very light snow in Frome, just small light flakes not heavy.

Calm before the storm :)

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

At work in central Bristol,

but the better half is at home and she's text me to say there's snow flakes in the air in SG.

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Davey80 Newbie

Davey80

Posted
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heatwave, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
Posted

I haven't had time to follow everything this morning - Would someone mind letting me know how is mid north hampshire looking? Alton/Basingstoke area?

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Going by every other model apart from the GFS then i think it will be a while away yet. Possibly mid Feb

I think anything is possible and I'd take that date, just to say we've witnessed something very special.

I haven't looked at the GFS 12z ensembles for a day or two, but I suspect they will be doing their usual deep low scenarios and subsequent zonal default, the further it goes into la la land. Thank god, the ECM and MetO output don't go out to 16 days ahead. good.gif

Snowing here in nw hants

Where? Doesn't show on your profile, can you please update it to show your location.

And BTW, welcome to netweather towers.

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Bofh Newbie

Bofh

Posted
  • Location: Glastonbury
  • Location: Glastonbury
Posted

Hubby just said very light snow falling here in wells. NW radar says rain? Wierd.

nothing in glastonbury but apparently a few flakes earlier. my weather station now up to 3.4 degrees

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Mattster1 Newbie

Mattster1

Posted
  • Location: Rangeworthy, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Rangeworthy, South Gloucestershire
Posted

I think anything is possible and I'd take that date, just to say we've witnessed something very special.

I haven't looked at the GFS 12z ensembles for a day or two, but I suspect they will be doing their usual deep low scenarios and subsequent zonal default, the further it goes into la la land. Thank god, the ECM and MetO output don't go out to 16 days ahead. good.gif

Where? Doesn't show on your profile, can you please update it to show your location.

And BTW, welcome to netweather towers.

my only worry for the west is with all that rain we have has the saturated ground will just freeze and any major thaw could lead to more flooding down the line?

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

Well the national weather forecast on the BBC was a nice surprise to wake up to. Now I just need to rid myself of the lurgy so I can go out and play. :D

Is there a rain band forecast to come up after the snowmageddon or am I seeing things?

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

nothing in glastonbury but apparently a few flakes earlier. my weather station now up to 3.4 degrees

Yes mine says 3.2c but I don't think the temp sensor is in the best place. This is exciting! Can't wait til tonight!

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Whilst this was only updated at 4am, things look tasty for most of us in the coming days. Lets just not get too hung up on predicting actual snowfall amounts.

Courtesy of the Met Office.

South West England

Headline:

Rather cloudy and cold. Windy with rain and snow tonight.

Today:

Remaining cold and rather cloudy with some patchy light rain or hill snow, mainly in the west. Brighter in the east after any mist or freezing fog patches clear. More persistent rain in western Cornwall by evening as winds strengthen. Maximum Temperature 7 °C.

Tonight:

Windy with a risk of gales near the coast. A band of heavy rain will spread east, turning to snow inland especially Devon eastwards, with some significant accumulations possible. Minimum Temperature -3 °C.

Friday:

Strong winds and heavy snow for many, especially the east where staying very cold, leading to significant accumulations. Snow soon turning to rain near the coast and in the west. Maximum Temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cloudy with patchy rain and hill snow on Saturday. Mostly dry but perhaps brighter on Sunday, before rain spreads northeast overnight and during Monday turning increasingly to snow. Less cold.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Bumpkin Apprentice

Bumpkin

Posted
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather but especially warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
Posted

Hubby just said very light snow falling here in wells. NW radar says rain? Wierd.

I was under a blue blob briefly but saw absolutely nothing fall from the sky, not a raindrop or dandruff flake.

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Timer Apprentice

Timer

Posted
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Old Fashioned Traditional Seasons
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
Posted

I haven't had time to follow everything this morning - Would someone mind letting me know how is mid north hampshire looking? Alton/Basingstoke area?

Cloudy here at the moment - -0.1C, few tiny flakes of snow.

I think we will do okay tomorrow, snow starting probably early/mid morning.

Best estimate 5-10cms by Friday evening.

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Joker Newbie

Joker

Posted
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

Judging by the 6z NMM lite animation I've just run, folk should also prepare for some wind-driven snow during the early part of the event.

I am talking winds in excess of 30mph here, albeit for a brief period and prone coastal locations may well get gusts in the range of 40 to 50mph.

In terms of snow, things may be marginal at first, in the usual locations but the BBC (MetO affiliated) forecasts I have seen, show widespread reasonable amounts of SNOW and Cornwall getting in on the act eventually, later into the event.

That will cause some serious drifting - possibly well over 1 metre drifts!

Edited by Joker
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Buzz Community Regular

Buzz

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
Posted (edited)

I'm not totally sure about the IOW but if you look at how the wind direction turns more southerly/south easterly as the main band comes in this means the winds will be picking up the colder dryer air off the continent as the front comes in.

Right now, no continental influence,

Rmgfs031.gif

6am winds coming from the south

Rmgfs241.gif

South easterly (just)

Rmgfs301.gif

Remember that wind doesn't directly flow along the isobars, it will always be angled slightly inwards when looking at an area of low pressure - for example, if there is an area of low pressure to the west and on the eastern side the isobars are going directly south to north, then there will be a south easterly element to the wind.

Conversely, the winds around an area of high pressure will be angled slightly outwards from the isobars.

Go to http://xcweather.co.uk/ for an example - click on the Pressure button and note the actual wind direction compared to the isobars. smile.png

Edited by Buzz
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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

big rAMP from nick miller just now news 24 HEAVY SNOW for the SW accumulations building with drifting in the strong se winds anyone on high ground will be loving this i imagine¬!!

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