South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[AWD]

NMM also increases intensity of snowfall Friday AM;

Although it doesn't show a Friday evening increase in intensity, it shows light, patchy snow right the way through until Saturday AM for some. More Sleet/Rainy South Somerset Southwestwards.

I can't see a snowfall accumulation chart for the NMM, so all we can do is a rough guide using the PPN accumulation chart up until midnight Saturday;

Obviously it depends on what type of snow it is etc, but roughly speaking that shows 7cm-12cm of snowfall across the region, slight upgrade on the 0z run.

I would also fully recommend the NMM and NW radar to anyone who hasn't yet got it. Will be a brilliant tool during these snowy times, always keeping you one step ahead of the game.

[snowflakey]

I really do hope I'm wrong, but I cant see any significant snow sticking on the IOW, we've hardly had an air frost, and last night the temp stayed above freezing. Please somebody tell me I'm wrong and that we may be in for a real dumping.

[BenJamminJ]

As a coach operator, I just hope that it starts to snow early enough for the schools to make the call not to open - rather than get the kids in and then struggle to get them home!!

[gottolovethisweather]

I just wanted to return to my post from earlier, as I don't want too many of us to get overexcited by the potential.

Most of us, more especially away from Cornwall and some other coastal extremities will see some (I'll pass on how much) SNOW within the next 36 hours.

For those, new to this chasing snowfall game, need to beware of upgrades and downgrades for their own backyard. As an example, I am simply not bothered at attempting to predict my own snowfall amounts.

On to recreating the post, that some of you may have missed. the first sentence referring to today's action.

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Yes, but will be dying out as it does so and some warmer Temperatures are wrapped up within it in places, some folks reporting 5c.

Hopefully, most of it will remain as snow and give some of us a surprise covering before the main event.

Looking longer-term............................................

Snow is always so difficult to forecast with any reasonable confidence, hence why the MetO have used ranges from 2 to 5cm and also up to 20cm or more.

Personally I think we should stick with the latest guidance from fergieweather and the latest NAE and NMM guidance at this timeframe.

There may be fun in trying to second guess nature but I think it may only be leading us all up the garden path.

Could be a case of..

Or equally, a case of..

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[chris55]

Latest bbc forecast showing snow stopping at 1500 on Fri!!!!

They are still using the 00z data from the NAE I suspect, always behind us lot!! At some point this afternoon I expect the graphics will change somewhat.

[Andy Bown]

So many changes still to occur right up until tomorrow and throughout the day into the weekend!

Look at today as an example, a weak front bringing flurries quite widely on a day that was forecast to be dry up until yesterday!

And when it rains some places get 15mm, others nearby half that depending on heavier bursts - with snow the difference is very noticeable.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Andy Bown

[Ali1977]

Will swindon be in the amber warning do you think!!!

[Iceberg]

Fantastic 06z output.

Firstly GFS increases the precip back to 10-15cm for mainy areas for FRIDAY/Saturday

Then GFS has another major snow chance on monday still.

NAE is the real peach though with the secondary feature that comes in later on friday, something i hoped it would pick up on (GFS probably wont until tomorrow morning imho). Its a high res feature First shown by the NMM and UKV (Meto short scale model). If its a goer then NAE would be next to pick it up and it has. Essentially as the colder upper air wraps down the west side of the newly created low it interacts with the warmer upper air and creates some very nice heavy showers, or new occuled front, or small trough feature. UKV on its early morning run had this over Devon, NAE a bit further east for , but a clear signal for 5-10cm where it occurs and it might be more widespread imho. It will then move SE as the low pulls away.

NAE is still a little too progessive imho.

I think this is the extra snow for that ians mentioned, but it could appear anywhere between Devon and Bristol imho and head south to south east.

Lots more twists and turns in this not least the expansion of the amber zone to the N.dorset boarder and more into somerset.

very very happy.

[chris55]

I really do hope I'm wrong, but I cant see any significant snow sticking on the IOW, we've hardly had an air frost, and last night the temp stayed above freezing. Please somebody tell me I'm wrong and that we may be in for a real dumping.

I'm not totally sure about the IOW but if you look at how the wind direction turns more southerly/south easterly as the main band comes in this means the winds will be picking up the colder dryer air off the continent as the front comes in.

Right now, no continental influence,

6am winds coming from the south

South easterly (just)

[Lynxus]

Chilly!!!!!

Look how far those winds come from! Picks up cold air from half way round the globe

[AWD]

Chilly!!!!!

Look how far those winds come from! Picks up cold air from half way round the globe

Do you realise what model your posting? :p. lol!

[Lynxus]

Do you realise what model your posting? . lol!

Oh course

But still what a picture! Gotta love the Chinese

[barlow08]

Light snow in bembridge iow in the air the joys of bein a postie lol

[warmintim]

So many changes still to occur right up until tomorrow and throughout the day into the weekend!

Look at today as an example, a weak front bringing flurries quite widely on a day that was forecast to be dry up until yesterday!

And when it rains some places get 15mm, others nearby half that depending on heavier bursts - with snow the difference is very noticeable.

Hi Andy,

Looking like a good day tomorrow. I am expecting Warminster to enter the amber-zone shortly. I've already decided to take the day off (don't want to travel to Bath for work...)

[kumquat]

Light flakes floating around in Winterbourne!

[jonlu69]

Hi Andy,

Looking like a good day tomorrow. I am expecting Warminster to enter the amber-zone shortly. I've already decided to take the day off (don't want to travel to Bath for work...)

I am sure a few more places will be in the amber zone soon !

[NickSomerset]

Whens the next Met Office weather warning update? usually..

[jonlu69]

Whens the next Met Office weather warning update? usually..

yesterdays was 11:23 so not long now

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm not totally sure about the IOW but if you look at how the wind direction turns more southerly/south easterly as the main band comes in this means the winds will be picking up the colder dryer air off the continent as the front comes in.

Right now, no continental influence,

6am winds coming from the south

South easterly (just)

Speaking for the IOW, I strongly suspect a SE wind would be the best possible wind direction. If it backs towards the SW that would be bad news. I feel it is largely unlikely to do so, during the main event and the key as ever, will be to get the snow on the ground in the first place.

[paulh]

Morning All,

just having some light snow in keynsham

[AWD]

And so it begins!

Light snow flurry in Longwell Green now.

[gottolovethisweather]

Chilly!!!!!

Look how far those winds come from! Picks up cold air from half way round the globe

DREAMLAND SYNOPTICS.

When does anybody think this the cold spell will end then?

[Wilxy]

Wow thats very dry snow falling

[Andy Pepler]

just got a text from a friend who works for interlink.. saying that shepton mallet,batcoomb is now having some light snow..

so how are things looking for west wiltshire

thoughts ?

[Mattster1]

Fantastic 06z output.

Firstly GFS increases the precip back to 10-15cm for mainy areas for FRIDAY/Saturday

Then GFS has another major snow chance on monday still.

NAE is the real peach though with the secondary feature that comes in later on friday, something i hoped it would pick up on (GFS probably wont until tomorrow morning imho). Its a high res feature First shown by the NMM and UKV (Meto short scale model). If its a goer then NAE would be next to pick it up and it has. Essentially as the colder upper air wraps down the west side of the newly created low it interacts with the warmer upper air and creates some very nice heavy showers, or new occuled front, or small trough feature. UKV on its early morning run had this over Devon, NAE a bit further east for , but a clear signal for 5-10cm where it occurs and it might be more widespread imho. It will then move SE as the low pulls away.

NAE is still a little too progessive imho.

I think this is the extra snow for that ians mentioned, but it could appear anywhere between Devon and Bristol imho and head south to south east.

Lots more twists and turns in this not least the expansion of the amber zone to the N.dorset boarder and more into somerset.

very very happy.

almost makes up for all that rain

the ecm was looking like a channel low for monday last night so if the gfs is onboard too then it sounds promising?