South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[AWD]

How much is 5cm in inches?

1.96853904"

Basically 2inches.

[krd]

Light snow in Exeter. 3c Hopefully more Friday AM

[Iggy912]

Red morning; shepherd's warning!

Beautiful skies over Henley on Thames after temperature fell to -5oC last night!

Very exciting...!

[SLEETY]

NAE snow depths up to midnight Saturday;

Hard to differentiate between the shades of pink, but looking at that and the PPN accumulation charts, I would say 5cm - 10cm is still the main figure for most of the region. Some a bit less, some a bit more.

That's good enough for me!

yes but look at the totals for sw scandiavia,wow

[caz100]

week here down near the bottom of Cornwall is a big grey cloud all over the sky no other colour.....

[rodders]

None of the opinions expressed in this post are mine, I just read what the smart people say and put all together!

Steady as she goes people, remember winter models are all less reliable compared to the summer ones, so we will have last minute winners and losers, as always. Models tend to under power the block meaning that the low pressure bumping into it will not make as much progress at it appears, I would assume that is why this predicted front has consistently been pushed further west as we get closer to the event. It is still not reliable as to where the front will exactly end up. It could continue to move west (good for Cornwall less so for the east) or it could push further east than predicted (bad for all of us here but better for the rest of the country. Also remember that the snow predictions are even less reliable.

I forget who first said it but the quote was "get the cold here, then look for the snow" well the cold is here and it looks to be staying for a while at least a week. If this weekend doesn't work out you will have to wait until Monday for the next opportunity, yes that soon!

If it does go mental then brilliant, but remember the cold weather can be dangerous, keep an eye out for the more vulnerable in your local community when you are out throwing snowballs at everyone!

[jessandjon]

week here down near the bottom of Cornwall is a big grey cloud all over the sky no other colour.....

But under the grey it is preparing the amazing blue sky for summer!!!

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Light snow here on Dartmoor this morning.

[divadee]

Just called in on my two elderly neighbours either side. Getting them some extra milk in (just in case one lady said) today when I'm doing my weekly shop.

Please check on neighbours and see if they need anything. We might love the snow but to a very elderly person a broken hip could be a possibility if they try and get out for milk or bread etc...

[Bristawl Si]

1.96853904"

Basically 2inches.

Hmmmm.....a dusting then!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Coast]

Met Office have the snow for you too!

[AWD]

What we can take from the latest output I think is that the block is pricing stronger than was forecast a few days ago.

We are now seeing increasing model agreement for the front to pivot/stall across the West Country, and as it does so, the intensity weakens as it starts to fragment whilst heading south.

Now, this might give us more realistic snowfall totals across the West Country instead of the "snowmaggedon" depths we were hinted at getting before. I say in average, 5cm looks like the average amount across the West Country currently. Some favoured locations will probably get nearer 10cm, whilst some other locations will probably only get a couple of cm's.

Like I said though, it looks like the block is proving a tad more difficult to shift. What this does do however, is keep us on the cold side for the foreseeable, rather than see milder air come in behind fronts as they go too Far East, as we were seeing at the beginning of the week.

This then increases the chance of further snowfall, such as potentially Monday. Now, taking the models at face value, its all very marginal for us as they sweep the PPN too Far East for us, resulting in a greater influence of less cold air. But, we've seen this before haven't we? Come nearer the time, as we are seeing now, westward corrections are likely and this would put the West Country in the firing line once again.

So yes, no "snowmaggedon" this weekend, but still very respectable totals for us down here, totals in still currently very happy with. Plus snowcover is likely to be maintained for some parts of the region through the weekend now, with further chances of snowfall next week as fronts struggle to progress eastwards against the block.

Good short term, and medium term outlooks.

[Polar Bear]

Just called in on my two elderly neighbours either side. Getting them some extra milk in (just in case one lady said) today when I'm doing my weekly shop.

Please check on neighbours and see if they need anything. We might love the snow but to a very elderly person a broken hip could be a possibility if they try and get out for milk or bread etc...

Thanks divadee ... And agreed .. Echoes my post last night re elderly neighbours and relatives.. Milk bread and knowing to contact someone.. I boughten parents some salt so they don't slip on their paths as they do like to get out !

Can't stress it enough peeps... Please check on them or make yourself known ...

[Gibby]

Here's how I see it for our patch today after studying most of the latest output. Today should be mostly cloudy and cold with a slowly freshening SE wind though the day. A little rain and sleet and hill snow may extend slowly East through the day. It will be a little less cold than yesterday. Tonight will see the breeze increase further with rain reaching Cornwall soon after midnight. Through the night and tomorrow this then extends readily NE, turning to snow away from the South Coast and giving a good covering of snow for many through tomorrow as it lessens in intensity later in the day. Overnight Friday and Saturday could see us experience further outbreaks of snow, gradually petering out by Saturday evening. Sunday looks like being cold and raw with an East wind and mostly cloudy skies. Late in the day rain will again reach Cornwall spreading NE too with further snow for a time. It may well be that this though turns to rain for many during Monday as milder air briefly moves in. By Tuesday and beyond the cold spreads back South over the SW with the weather settling down then as pressure builds with very low temperatures at night but some bright sunny days over the snowfields.

[Bristawl Si]

just watched bbc forecast (presume it's uptodate at this time of morn).

Subtle changes for our region compared to Ian F's yday just before 7.

Yday's fcast: snow started at midnight for our region, really thick heavy white mass, going on until late afternoon, early eve for many; even into night for cotswolds.

Carol's forecast just now: starts about 4 Fri morn, progged to finish around midday. Looked lighter as well.

Trends.

Still better for travel tom, unless one is travelling to deepest Wales.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Bristle boy

[divadee]

I just hope the snow starts early enough so the school shuts and daughter can join in the snow fun!! If not it will be me and hubby on sledges.

[jonlu69]

Reading last few pages.. Keep seeing Wiltshire pop as a sweet spot... Well has been for the last few days in the morning runs lol

Me like, but hope everyone gets something nice !!

[124alex]

What about Monday?

[Beltanemaid]

Morning! Has anyone read Matt Hugo's post on the MOD? (post #141).

He shows a fax chart and talks about a change that means 'parts of the south may see an increase'. Which part and an increase in what (? snow) are beyound my understanding. Has anyone here got any thoughts on this please?

[khodds]

I'm feeling a bit disappointed already. Sorry to be miserable 😰. But 5cm just isn't enough! Lol! Hoping for an upgrade from the 6z...... I'll go and do the school run and come back with my happy face!

[rodders]

I just hope the snow starts early enough so the school shuts and daughter can join in the snow fun!! If not it will be me and hubby on sledges.

Don't forget us teachers! We like going to play in the snow! Oh yea and the kids of course.

khodds 5 cm! I'd sell my soul for 5 cm of snow, stop being greedy! Lots of people aren't going to get any, spare a thought for them!

Edited January 17, 2013 by rodders

[Gina]

I can report the rare and thrilling sight of a couple of miniscule flakes of snow falling here in Wiltshire!

[AWD]

What about Monday?

My Met Office App has me down for light snow Monday. Taking the charts at face value, its very marginal, but its still 4 days away so no point looking in much detail yet.

[divadee]

I'm feeling a bit disappointed already. Sorry to be miserable 😰. But 5cm just isn't enough! Lol! Hoping for an upgrade from the 6z...... I'll go and do the school run and come back with my happy face!

5cm is not enough???? It's better than nothing which is what we have had since dec 10! I would be happy with a couple of cms!

[Wilxy]

i don't think tomorrow will be that bad i can see it being light snow nothing major, wait and see on developments.