South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[Barometer Obama]

Looking OK for us on the South Coast (still time I guess). Not sure why forecasts are turning the PPN for us to sleet tomorrow when temps including dp and uppers apear low enough for snow? Also SE wind predicted which ought to cool things down. Expert feedback welcome.

Great to see our region at the forfront at last! Lets hope it doesn't change at the last...........

I'm not an expert, but I've endured previous snow events and more commonly near misses. The danger for us on the coast comes from the fact that the wind in the middle part of the day is from the South, it will veer more easterly in the afternoon. Looking on the GFS the 528 thickness line is actually slightly inland, this is another negative for snow. As we get close to the event I would suggest going on weatherunderground and watching to see signs of the dew points rising in the west. And of course look on this forum, to follow progress. Hopefully by this evening the actual track will be pretty accurate and will know where is likely to get smothered! Anyone who says it WILL snow or it WON't SNOW for us on the coast is guessing, it will be very much a fingers crossed job. Next week looks very exciting if things don't quite go peoples way tomorrow.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Barometer Obama

[Andy Bown]

Just watching the latest forecast and I wonder if the band could struggle to reach as far as currently predicted before slowly

petering out? It seems the HIGH block is very strong. Or, if it does reach as far East as currently predicted, it could be more

towards late morning tomorrow rather than by this time. How many times at 24 hours in advance does the timing of rainbands

change!!? (Lots!)

[divadee]

MO saying heavy snow turning to heavy rain in the afternoon in bournemouth allways does that here!

I'm hoping it doesn't, but the MO website has been saying it turns to rain by the evening since yesterday. All still to play for though!

[Wilxy]

Light snow starting to creep into the west country, but very weak.

[Sainsbo]

I can't get my head aound the fact both the BBC and MetO are forcasting snow from Friday morning until Saturday evening, when the grraphics show that it will have cleared by late Friday. AM I missing something?

[iceman1991]

Carol just said this morning on bbc weather signifcant snow for central southern on the graphics looks like its snowing all day 2moz in north hants yipeee

[Mark Parsons]

What is wrong with the temps down here at the moment currently 5c????

[Iceberg]

The front does definitely stall over the sw now and then maybe a bit of it travels across southern England. Still widely 10cm but moderate snow now for between 6am and midday.

Interesting signal for a new band to come in behind over Devon tomorrow afternoon, mostly of snow giving another 5cm on the ukv.

Ukv keeps the precip more Somerset, Dorset wilts based. Light snow Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning particularly for Dorset and s.wilts.

Nmm keeps a lot of it as snow, nae seems tone picking up on a signal for sleet for the south coast, but 0z nae doesn't have much support for this.

[Coast]

Carol just said this morning on bbc weather signifcant snow for central southern on the graphics looks like its snowing all day 2moz in north hants yipeee

Looks like you could get plenty!!

[divadee]

What is wrong with the temps down here at the moment currently 5c????

0.8c here with dp of -2

[dryjoy]

MO saying heavy snow turning to heavy rain in the afternoon in bournemouth allways does that here!

Yes, I know. I live in Wimborne, work in Bournemouth. In Wimborne, being 10 miles inland can make a difference, however Wimborne is more often than not JUST on the wrong side of that coastal line. Another 5 miles north is often better. It can be very frustrating, although it was awesome when we were RIGHT under a MO red warning in December '10. We did great then. Just hoping for tomorrow but living where we do, you just cannot get your hopes up to much.

[quantock girl]

Very light snow here at the moment. A pleasant surprise. Not settling or anything that good mind!

Interesting developments on the BBC weather, seems not as widespread across the country. Devon seems to have a good chance now as well. I hope there are no further major changes today. To get this close and then see it rain tomorrow morning...

[karlos1983]

The way I see it, there looks to be good agreement in a snow event tomorrow, inland areas will benefit more than right on the coast, but I still expect snow even in my location.

My advice for anyone in the BH area, is don't threat. If its snowing on the coast with minimal lying snow, it's only a short trip to the new forest!! Never let me down for a good sledge run when it's been marginal!

But more generally I really don't think you'll have to travel to far inland to see decent lying snow if the forecast continues as progged!

[Mark Parsons]

0.8c here with dp of -2

Well think I the temp sensor might be on the blink! Well just checked the mercury thermometer and that is reading 5c as well, this does not fill me with confidence!

[jessandjon]

27 yrs old today bout time I has some snow, looks promising maybe for a few flakes!!!

Met still have me down for rain!

Edited January 17, 2013 by jessandjon

[Coast]

27 yrs old today bout time I has some snow, looks promising maybe for a few flakes!!!

Happy Birthday to you!!! (snow for you this year then?).

Not wishing to gloat, but some of us could still be seeing it snow on Sunday - 2 days later!!!

[AWD]

Detail aside, Monday also still looking quite interesting. Charts at face value today might suggest a tad too marginal for some of us, but how often, at 96 hours away, do we see SWard correction?

Good NAE and NMM output this morning. Both suggesting that a good area of the region could see upto 10cm of snowfall.

Only 24 hours to go guys!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I can't get my head aound the fact both the BBC and MetO are forcasting snow from Friday morning until Saturday evening, when the grraphics show that it will have cleared by late Friday. AM I missing something?

No you never saw that , what you saw is the front decaying over us over a long period of time ,it will become lighter as the day goes on, but consistent , And into the night aswell , with a poss new surge of energy into the evening and night .

Not to say I guarantee things will still manoveour somewhat , and with the front on us for so long , Iv seen it before, little disturbances can develop across the ppn giving unexpected last minute upgrades.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[jessandjon]

Happy Birthday to you!!! (snow for you this year then?).

Not wishing to gloat, but some of us could still be seeing it snow on Sunday - 2 days later!!!

Think I would gloat if us was going to have bucket loads aswell!!! And thanks

[Staffordshire]

Really do hope you guys get lucky and get something tommorow! you guys deserve it more than anyone

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The front does definitely stall over the sw now and then maybe a bit of it travels across southern England. Still widely 10cm but moderate snow now for between 6am and midday.

Interesting signal for a new band to come in behind over Devon tomorrow afternoon, mostly of snow giving another 5cm on the ukv.

Ukv keeps the precip more Somerset, Dorset wilts based. Light snow Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning particularly for Dorset and s.wilts.

Nmm keeps a lot of it as snow, nae seems tone picking up on a signal for sleet for the south coast, but 0z nae doesn't have much support for .

yes I think the front is set to pivot from a line of northern ire , Wales, southwest/central England. With less snow for areas around Birmingham east.

[Bristawl Si]

The front does definitely stall over the sw now and then maybe a bit of it travels across southern England. Still widely 10cm but moderate snow now for between 6am and midday.

Interesting signal for a new band to come in behind over Devon tomorrow afternoon, mostly of snow giving another 5cm on the ukv.

Ukv keeps the precip more Somerset, Dorset wilts based. Light snow Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning particularly for Dorset and s.wilts.

Nmm keeps a lot of it as snow, nae seems tone picking up on a signal for sleet for the south coast, but 0z nae doesn't have much support for this.

I think it was becoming increasingly obvious last night that things would continue to change, move West, a little south and less intensity.

This development has come as no surprise to me to be honest.

You only have to look back at the last two days' worth of faxes to see the trend of a stronger block to our East/NE coming more into play.

Beyond Friday and into the weekend and early next week looks as unpredictable, micro-wise, as it has been for this last week IMO.

[AWD]

NAE snow depths up to midnight Saturday;

Hard to differentiate between the shades of pink, but looking at that and the PPN accumulation charts, I would say 5cm - 10cm is still the main figure for most of the region. Some a bit less, some a bit more.

That's good enough for me!

[Karl83]

NAE snow depths up to midnight Saturday;

Hard to differentiate between the shades of pink, but looking at that and the PPN accumulation charts, I would say 5cm - 10cm is still the main figure for most of the region. Some a bit less, some a bit more.

That's good enough for me!

That will definitely do for me. 5cm would be fine but 10cm would be a bonus.

[Bristawl Si]

That will definitely do for me. 5cm would be fine but 10cm would be a bonus.

How much is 5cm in inches?