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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

A.J

By A.J
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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted

Blizzardof82

​Love the profile pic, everytime i see you post, your blakey makes me laugh my head off.

I expect that would be his reaction if he saw how much snow wer`re going to get.Someone posted earlier about heavy snow shot friday night as well now, is that another low on the chart or newly devolping one??

Thanks that's why I chose it, I'll leave the latter to more experienced members to answer.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

GFS not showing heavy precip again on Fri night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

GFS now showing some mild air (Greens for 18.00) before going back to snow , so wales and all southwest England down to I.O.W after initial snow small period of rain then back to snow up and probably through saturday.)

I have feeling the snow falling will be wet at times so snow depths won`t be as much folks.

It's fine for Somerset northwards, as per the NAE mate.

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jtay Veteran

jtay

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
Posted

Currently under a leaden sky, but the lightest snow has been falling since 8:30am.

A pleasant hors d'oeuvre, before we stuff ourselves silly tomorrow.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

GFS now showing some mild air (Greens for 18.00) before going back to snow , so wales and all southwest England down to I.O.W after initial snow small period of rain then back to snow up and probably through saturday.)

I have feeling the snow falling will be wet at times so snow depths won`t be as much folks.

That's a little misleading, as long as those "greens" dont become yellows (above 0c) and dew points remain at or below 0c then snow it will be for most.

Here are the dew points for the same period,

Rmgfs368.gif

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lynnsim Newbie

lynnsim

Posted
  • Location: Holybourne, North East Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny summers, cold and snowy winters. Traditional seasons please!
  • Location: Holybourne, North East Hampshire
Posted

Morning everyone. I have been catching up on everyone's posts since last night and I assume it is still game on for tomorrow then??! biggrin.png

Currently -2c here and I think it went down to about -5c overnight (really need to get my own weather station!). And looking at my MetOffice forecast for friday, I now have heavy snow forecast from 9am until 6pm, with light snow right through until saturday pm ohmy.png . If that happens we could well be buried in this part of the region!

One concern is the timing. If this hits us after everyone gets to school/work then it could cause chaos with everyone trying to get back home. I may find myself collecting the children from school after just a couple of hours! Anyway, I'll be struggling to get much done today as I'm sure I'll be on here most of the time!

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ftolad Rookie

ftolad

Posted
  • Location: Waterlooville
  • Location: Waterlooville
Posted

Currently under a leaden sky, but the lightest snow has been falling since 8:30am.

A pleasant hors d'oeuvre, before we stuff ourselves silly tomorrow.

Same skies here in Southampton with a few flakes coming down.

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Joneseye Explorer

Joneseye

Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
Posted

GFS now showing some mild air (Greens for 18.00) before going back to snow , so wales and all southwest England down to I.O.W after initial snow small period of rain then back to snow up and probably through saturday.)

I have feeling the snow falling will be wet at times so snow depths won`t be as much folks.

Those Greens are hardly mild! with a southeasterly flow we'll be dragging in colder dew points which renders the 528DAM line useless as a measure in this case :)

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exeuser Newbie

exeuser

Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Location: Exeter
Posted

so guys, as it stands does anyone think that we might see a sustained snow event this far south & west?

lots of contradictory thoughts (opinions) & maps lol.........

Probably do its usual trick and dump a load on the moors and as it approaches Exeter will turn to rain/sleet, the moors do tend to work against us in situations like this

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Corralejo, Fuerteventura.
  • Location: Corralejo, Fuerteventura.
Posted

NAE v GFS - i think it's only fair to point out that despite NAE's regarded 'expertise' in the short term for predicting precip, the GFS in short term timescale has shown itself not to be that bad on previous occasions.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

GFS now showing some mild air (Greens for 18.00) before going back to snow , so wales and all southwest England down to I.O.W after initial snow small period of rain then back to snow up and probably through saturday.)

I have feeling the snow falling will be wet at times so snow depths won`t be as much folks.

Wet snow is the one that causes the biggest problems.

The water freezes quickly, You get LARGE flakes ( sometime clumpy golf ball sized ones )

Thats what I want heheh

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

GFS 6z increases the intensity of the ppn Friday compared to the 00z

Rmgfs243.gif

Rmgfs273.gif

Rmgfs303.gif

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Timer Apprentice

Timer

Posted
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Old Fashioned Traditional Seasons
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
Posted

After a minimum last night of -3C temperature is now -0.8c. Cloudy calm and dry.

Expecting the snow tomorrow to reach here early morning - could well be moderate

accumulations and lasting all day. We shall see.......

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offerman Experienced

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

AWD and Chris, can it still snow under the greens then? if so, apologies and forgive my ignorance.I thought we had to be behind the -5 850 line.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

AWD and Chris, can it still snow under the greens then? if so, apologies and forgive my ignorance.I thought we had to be behind the -5 850 line.

Yes, -5 is a good guideline but -3 -4 is still possible.

( DP's, Evap cooling, Etc etc )

Ive seen it snow with -3 and +2c outside temps before.

Edited by Lynxus
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

AWD and Chris, can it still snow under the greens then? if so, apologies and forgive my ignorance.I thought we had to be behind the -5 850 line.

Yes, and it will with a SErly wind feed. Dewpoints & WBFL are more important here. -3c/-4c upper air temps are fine for snow.

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LeeB Newbie

LeeB

Posted
  • Location: Okehampton-Devon
  • Location: Okehampton-Devon
Posted

Am I right in thinking the latest MetO fax charts show this front coming in stalling further west than initially thought. From an IMBY perspective I hope its right.

Lee

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TwisterGirl81 Experienced

TwisterGirl81

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted

It's now trying to snow in Exeter, I can see some flakes...

I am hoping very much this is a sign of things to come

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Olly Newbie

Olly

Posted
  • Location: Barnstaple, Devon
  • Location: Barnstaple, Devon
Posted

It's now trying to snow in Exeter, I can see some flakes...

I am hoping very much this is a sign of things to come

Its snowing up here in Barnstaple... albeit very lightly! Fingers crossed.
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jazzy Newbie

jazzy

Posted
  • Location: South West Devon
  • Location: South West Devon
Posted

My mum is reporting very light snow in Paignton not enough to settle but definately snow flakes falling from sky, This has cheered me up as I thought it was too warm in South Devon for any chance of snow

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
Posted

Looks a bit marginal for bristol.

Can you back that up?

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