South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[Coast]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the snowy South coast!

[gottolovethisweather]

27 yrs old today bout time I has some snow, looks promising maybe for a few flakes!!!

Met still have me down for rain!

Happy Birthday young lady, me 41 on the 21st, should be buried in the stuff by then.

blimey big upgrade for us coasties in hampshire, BBC and MetOffice have it turning to sleety in the afternoon - casnnot see it - NAE has uppers of -8 and dewpoints below 0 - reckon it should staty as snow - particularly with lying snow and temps dropping off in the afternoon as we approach dusk, don't think I'll be playing hockey satdee lol

Careful as she goes , it is very marginal but if I had to guess, I would say............................................................

Hmmm.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

MO saying heavy snow turning to heavy rain in the afternoon in bournemouth allways does that here!

Yes, yes, yes.

Please refrain from suggesting what may happen when the event is 24 hours away.

Yes, you know your patch, perhaps better than anyone, but when the snow starts falling and starts laying, then it could end up a very memorable event for you folks in the usual borderline areas.

Has it not been snowing this morning?

What is wrong with the temps down here at the moment currently 5c????

Ouch.

That will be the frontal mess which will gradually clear East during the day, which will allow for the Temperatures to fall as the day progresses.

[chris55]

Latest NAE for 6am-12pm Friday

[TimMB]

I do like that Chris.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Latest NAE for 6am-12pm Friday

That's an upgrade

[Blizzardof82]

Just looking at METO radar and there seems to be quite a bit of precipitation to our west over Wales, is that heading our way and is it snow?

[PompeyFC]

Looking good for Gosport tomorrow, morning and early afternoon showing heavy snow on the latest forecasts.

Its been a little warmer here than most areas the last few days, the cold weather has missed us so far.

Thinking I might pop out today and do some early weekend shopping so I can watch the show tomorrow

yep gosport aswell - going to check radar tomorrow though and try and get near a sweet spot - rare we get such a good event around here

[AWD]

Latest NAE for 6am-12pm Friday

I like. That's widely 10mm rate I think.

[Blizzardof82]

Latest NAE for 6am-12pm Friday

Lovely

[chris55]

PPN accum'

anywhere from 9-36mms thats 9 to 36 cms of snowfall!!!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris55

[gottolovethisweather]

What about Monday?

It is my Birthday.

You going to buy me a present.

t+24 hours is not yet nailed, t+96 or whichever sort of range that relates to is in la la land (probably the place I'll be, at the end of the night, awy with the fairies).

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[chris55]

You can see where Ian F was coming from with Forest of Dean being at risk of some of the highest totals. And 19mm around Bristol!!!

[Frank Trough]

That's an upgrade

For people on the coast (i.e.like me!) it's worth noting that the NAE was bang on in terms of rain/snow boundaries for the early february event last year. It always had coastal regions west of chichester seeing rain...which was how it panned out. I hope it's right this time.

However, as always we wait and see. Many hurdles jump and i still think we have the watch the progress of the precipitation and how far east it gets carefully. It's easy to get wrapped up in 850's, dew points etc but without any decent precip it's all a bit meaningless. Plus timings + intensity can also affect the outcome.

All to play for! exciting whatever happens...this is what "weather watching" is all about!

[swsnowlover]

Well, I wasn't expecting that...snowing when I left home near Holsworthy at 7.30am and light snow when I got to work in Callington...maybe this bodes well for tomorrow...or maybe I am a hopeless optimist!!

[khodds]

PPN accum'

anywhere from 9-36mms thats 9 to 36 cms of snowfall!!!!

OK LIKE THIS! I'm happier now!

[chris55]

[chris55]

Snow intensifies around the Severn Vale!!!

And that's only upto 36 hours. Good upgrade there from the NAE. Lets see if the 12z can hold!

I posted the wrong chart to start, doh, thats the 48 hour one now.

[TimMB]

Taken from Frosty in the model thread, but very apt for this new output.

[AWD]

From an IMBY point of view, I would bank that NAE run now.

Close to 24 hours of falling snow, at times quite heavy!

[offerman]

Chris, Yes, if it is dry/powder snow, if its slightly wet 1-3 ratio 1mm 3mm snow. if dry then yes 1mm rain = 1cm snow

Posted 9 minutes ago

PPN accum'

anywhere from 9-36mms thats 9 to 36 cms of snowfall!!!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Just looking at METO radar and there seems to be quite a bit of precipitation to our west over Wales, is that heading our way and is it snow?

Yes, but will be dying out as it does so and some warmer Temperatures are wrapped up within it in places, some folks reporting 5c.

Hopefully, most of it will remain as snow and give some of us a surprise covering before the main event.

Looking longer-term............................................

Snow is always so difficult to forecast with any reasonable confidence, hence why the MetO have used ranges from 2 to 5cm and also up to 20cm or more.

Personally I think we should stick with the latest guidance from fergieweather and the latest NAE and NMM guidance at this timeframe.

There may be fun in trying to second guess nature but I think it may only be leading us all up the garden path.

Could be a case of..

Or equally, a case of..

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

NAE snow depths;

10cm for much of Somerset northwards!

[PompeyFC]

Here's how I see it for our patch today after studying most of the latest output. Today should be mostly cloudy and cold with a slowly freshening SE wind though the day. A little rain and sleet and hill snow may extend slowly East through the day. It will be a little less cold than yesterday. Tonight will see the breeze increase further with rain reaching Cornwall soon after midnight. Through the night and tomorrow this then extends readily NE, turning to snow away from the South Coast and giving a good covering of snow for many through tomorrow as it lessens in intensity later in the day.

can you explain this one - metoffice and bbc both show heavy snow for the south coast between 9am and 3pm - NAE show uppers at 850 and dewpoints are favourable even on the coast

[gottolovethisweather]

PPN accum'

anywhere from 9-36mms thats 9 to 36 cms of snowfall!!!!

Judging by that, it won't be a case of "will it snow in Cardiff?", it will be a case of "can I get out of Cardiff?" after that little lot.

Please bear in mind folks, these are most definitely subject to change but at least, it is NOT human guesswork.