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North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013, 12z onwards

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

OK midnight New24 forecast showed no snow over any part of the NW upto 14:00 on friday yet he then goes on to show the meto wanring that clearly shows the warning covering much of the south of the region upto manchester north and say 10cm possible??

Just lost all faith of the BBC weather forecast

Thats because he is not allowed to downgrade the MO warnings but he has to show the updated graphic, it was obvious last night it was going to downgrade but he stil showed the warnings issued at midday, expect downgrades tommorow.

News 24 forecast updated, another downgrade, basically no snow, but still in the amber zone. Game over?

Yes - Game over!

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

if there was a downgrade here, what happened for the rest of the country?

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

The local NAE (a fairly high degree model) from the Irish sea observatory, shows precipitation missing the northwest.

http://cobs.pol.ac.u...atest.php?im=11

Ste, that shows precip not even making it to North Wales. Lol!

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Winter Monsoon Rookie

Winter Monsoon

Posted
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
Posted

Thats because he is not allowed to downgrade the MO warnings but he has to show the updated graphic, it was obvious last night it was going to downgrade but he stil showed the warnings issued at midday, expect downgrades tommorow.

Yes - Game over!

So why the hell are the meto as of a few minutes ago tweeting heavy snow for areas north of manchester??

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

Ste, that shows precip not even making it to North Wales. Lol!

Well in most cases it barely makes the North Wales anyway! lol

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Frustrating that the Marsden area (nearest east) on the Met office map has the snow symbol for most of the weekend but the Ashton under lyne one (just South West) has nothing for most of the weekend but little tweaks, im probably further east than most in my area anyway so i have a better chance as any, looking better than this time last night, not going to be a full on blizzard but could be a reasonable fall.

Put rain today on and look at the precip being generated down the east coast by a wind sse, then look at the wind direction on the gfs for Sat.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

So why the hell are the meto as of a few minutes ago tweeting heavy snow for areas north of manchester??

Slow in getting the message of the latest UK4 run to the tweeter.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I'll say again, it was precipitation graphics lifted directly from NAE 18z run. Run the 18z NAE run through and the precipitation matches up exactly. I've seen them lift graphics straight from the NAE before and is probably an easyish stop gap before they integrate any modifications RE graphics into the forecast.

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davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted

Why are people hanging on every chart/model/prediction? Do they think there's someone out there with a magic wand who will tell them exactly what will happen? We're into nowcast. It's on the radar, watch & hope.

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Front is modeled exactly as the 18z GFS plays it out. Could of nailed it = a good event for much of NW England.

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Storm Animal Apprentice

Storm Animal

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth 1000ft ASL
  • Location: Saddleworth 1000ft ASL
Posted

This website is enough to give you a heart attack.......amber warnings, yellow warnings, no warnings, downgrades, upgrades.........we have a couple of cm of lying snow here which has been there since Monday, then we have had the light snow this pm which has covered all the gaps/ roads in. I think if we get any snow in this area tomorrow, it wont be until late afternoon/ into Saturday. Enjoy whatever you have & stay safe good.gif

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

I have a high suspicion that with the BBC forecasts being business based in terms of interest and funding 'TPTB' don't want tomorrow to be viewed of as employees taking a extended weekend especially so early after Christmas. I'm sorry to say but commuters being stuck in miles/hours of traffic tomorrow is just cannon-fodder for them. Downplay the forecast for tonight and you'll quickly see how later tomorrow morning it'll be revamped as being 'unpredictable' that such amounts would have fallen by then.

Swings and roundabouts with the BBC.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Put rain today on and look at the precip being generated down the east coast by a wind sse, then look at the wind direction on the gfs for Sat.

Has to be a real power house to get it all the way across the pennines though.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I'll say again, it was precipitation graphics lifted directly from NAE 18z run. Run the 18z NAE run through and the precipitation matches up exactly. I've seen them lift graphics straight from the NAE before and is probably an easyish stop gap before they integrate any modifications RE graphics into the forecast.

I disagree, the NAE was decent tonight, showing more than 5cm for me, this showed a few snizzly showers on saturday maybe.

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Look people in all seriousness enough of the downgrade game over crap, the met have been answering several questions by nw posters tonight and still expect snow.

There might not be what we were forecast on Tuesday but they have the highest resolution and most upto date data.

It will be a nowcast event.

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gearbox1001 Newbie

gearbox1001

Posted
  • Location: Haydock, St.Helens
  • Location: Haydock, St.Helens
Posted

I don't think the BBC are down playing for any agenda, in fairness accuweather have forcast rain all day (we had snow). I believe the forecasters just don't know, they never know when it comes to snow. It is currently all academic until it happens and that's why they are up and down with directions.

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Has to be a real power house to get it all the way across the pennines though.

Hmm not really, just enough weight to the precipitation and a strong enough wind to carry it.

Streamer potential imo

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I disagree, the NAE was decent tonight, showing more than 5cm for me, this showed a few snizzly showers on saturday maybe.

It only went to 3-4pm as I was watching it myself. NAE for same timeframe...

13011818_1718.gif

Only the darker blue than the lightest shade (1mm) usually shows up as precipitation on the graphics. Hence why I say the forecast was lifted straight from NAE

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

It only went to 3-4pm as I was watching it myself. NAE for same timeframe...

13011818_1718.gif

Only the darker blue than the lightest shade (1mm) usually shows up as precipitation on the graphics. Hence why I say the forecast was lifted straight from NAE

That shows 7mm of rain = 7cm of snow for the areas in red on the Met Office warning system. Now why in hell would they go and use that!?

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