North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013, 12z onwards

[Snowmad79]

Looking at the radar, the stalled front over us is moving east again now. That's got to bode well for the next front incoming.

[johnwirral]

We'll find out for sure tommorow, I've been following this for a few days now, it started off as a SW and South Wales event, then looked like hitting the NW the hardest, seems to have backtracked... Lets hope the fat lady has not lost her voice...

Edited January 18, 2013 by johnwirral

[Cheshire Freeze]

That shows 7mm of rain = 7cm of snow for the areas in red on the Met Office warning system. Now why in hell would they go and use that!?

It shows more earlier on in the morning then weakens....as per the forecast graphics

[feb1991blizzard]

Look people in all seriousness enough of the downgrade game over crap, the met have been answering several questions by nw posters tonight and still expect snow.

There might not be what we were forecast on Tuesday but they have the highest resolution and most upto date data.

It will be a nowcast event.

I have to say this has just updated and although looks hit and miss, it is still promising in terms of somewhere getting some.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ol3

Dont forget though Bactrack asked IF on twitter last night if it was downgrading and IF did not seem to think so at that point, but today the amber warning was duly downgraded to yelllow for a big chunk.

[wysiwyg]

I don't think the BBC are down playing for any agenda, in fairness accuweather have forcast rain all day (we had snow). I believe the forecasters just don't know, they never know when it comes to snow. It is currently all academic until it happens and that's why they are up and down with directions.

I hear what you're saying but I have to agree with the previous poster's views of the BBC's approach to weather presentation;

i) they have a green/pro-global warming agenda

ii) they have a remit to report and entertain the 95% of the licence paying population who want the warm fuzzy feeling of good news in these times of economic gloom

iii) they get their data direct from the METO but in my experience the Beeb's forecasts rarely (if ever!) coincide with the METO forecasts.

Just my £0.02 worth but I personally have no confidence in the BBC's shoddy weather presentation. IMO they are one step away from the sensationalist tabloids such as the Telegraph when it comes to weather reporting.

[feb1991blizzard]

I hear what you're saying but I have to agree with the previous poster's views of the BBC's approach to weather presentation;

i) they have a green/pro-global warming agenda

ii) they have a remit to report and entertain the 95% of the licence paying population who want the warm fuzzy feeling of good news in these times of economic gloom

iii) they get their data direct from the METO but in my experience the Beeb's forecasts rarely (if ever!) coincide with the METO forecasts.

Just my £0.02 worth but I personally have no confidence in the BBC's shoddy weather presentation. IMO they are one step away from the sensationalist tabloids such as the Telegraph when it comes to weather reporting.

Im glad i have finally found someone on NW who agrees with me.

[burylad12]

Well met office are sending tweets out that greater manchester will get snow, they seen very confident!

[gearbox1001]

I take your points on board but they have forcast snow, just not for the Northwest and in fairness it may be accurate as time will tell.

I get the global warming agenda but if its going to snow all the warm thinking won't change that.

I just think its not going to be what people wanted and the forecasters regardless of there tweets don't really know, they highlighted the potential and that's all they can do, now its up to the snow gods.

[Isolated Frost]

Oh fgs, now is not the time for green/enviro claptrap about the MO, leave it out of this thread.

[greybing]

Im glad i have finally found someone on NW who agrees with me.

I agree also

[gearbox1001]

isolated frost why the aggression its just a debate on why the forecasts are bias in some people's opinion for our area (area thread).

I am not chart savvy hence why I keep out of the chart threads but I do have excellent window skills and heard all the hype to fill a cap to follow all the tears to fill a jug.

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh fgs, now is not the time for green/enviro claptrap about the MO, leave it out of this thread.

But its ok for people to criticise the Mail or express on here for putting the other point of view??

[johnwirral]

Oh fgs, now is not the time for green/enviro claptrap about the MO, leave it out of this thread.

Yep, no idea what that's got to do with n24 showing less snow for the nw, when Wales is getting pasted.

Edited January 18, 2013 by johnwirral

[Isolated Frost]

The Mail and Express routinely lie and use sensationalism in their views- to gain readers and manipulate the public. The Met Office do none of the sort.

This has nothing to do with the North West, or the upcoming snow spell, and if you think it does, you're bonkers. Any further posts will be deleted on the matter.

[Troubleatmill]

That shows 7mm of rain = 7cm of snow for the areas in red on the Met Office warning system. Now why in hell would they go and use that!?

standard per hour pecip BT

[Backtrack]

No, I agree with Isolated Frost, now is not the time for a debate of that manor, just check the radar and you may see a large area of precipitation to the west with our names on it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Reverted back to what it was showing previously on 0.30 forecast. Running two different versions it seems for the moment.

[weatherobsuk]

Well the good news thus far is that with each passing hour the front is looking better and better in terms of convective PPN cells. Should be fun to see what I wake up to in 8 hours time.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Reverted back to what it was showing previously on 0.30 forecast. Running two different versions it seems for the moment.

what did it show before crewe?

[wysiwyg]

I take your points on board but they have forcast snow, just not for the Northwest and in fairness it may be accurate as time will tell.

I get the global warming agenda but if its going to snow all the warm thinking won't change that.

I just think its not going to be what people wanted and the forecasters regardless of there tweets don't really know, they highlighted the potential and that's all they can do, now its up to the snow gods.

Yes i understand where you're coming from and in terms of the weather now and for the next 36 hours or so I think we have two firmly drawn opinions - one from the METO (and the BBC with some lag and spin) and the other based on the short term GFS which stubbornly wants to push the whole affair further North and East. As you rightly say it's in the lap of the weather gods and as of now only the radar, ones window and reports from other forum members will be truly reliable. I'm sitting in the GFS camp as I'm an eternal optimist. Those who sit in the other camp are very wisely managing their expectations. If I'm wrong I will be disappointed but I wont lose any sleep - if i'm right then we all win

[feb1991blizzard]

Thats our fun for tonight anyway, the band of PPN over us has suddenly died a death.

[Cheshire Freeze]

what did it show before crewe?

Front not getting into the region.

Don't think I'll be getting much sleep tonight (again)

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes i understand where you're coming from and in terms of the weather now and for the next 36 hours or so I think we have two firmly drawn opinions - one from the METO (and the BBC with some lag and spin) and the other based on the short term GFS which stubbornly wants to push the whole affair further North and East. As you rightly say it's in the lap of the weather gods and as of now only the radar, ones window and reports from other forum members will be truly reliable. I'm sitting in the GFS camp as I'm an eternal optimist. Those who sit in the other camp are very wisely managing their expectations. If I'm wrong I will be disappointed but I wont lose any sleep - if i'm right then we all win

Yes, Always expect the worse, thats a good base to start from IMO and if it does turn out ok then great, im slightly worried by the last few GEFS and ECM ens in FI wanting to bring the Atlantic back as well.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes, Always expect the worse, thats a good base to start from IMO and if it does turn out ok then great, im slightly worried by the last few GEFS and ECM ens in FI wanting to bring the Atlantic back as well.

It's now or never

[Backtrack]

Right, got snow on the ground outside, a fun day tomorrow, so screw this, I'm going to watch an Idiot Abroad & wake up at 6am to resume my hunt for snow.

Laters