Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

[Timmytour]

Does this show a tornado of cold uppers over Greenland?

[Summer Sun]

The Atlantic is almost certain to break through next week now bringing with it milder and for some wetter weather

[bluearmy]

plenty of interest in the 06z gefs. infact the strongest cluster early feb is a mid atlantic ridge. we may have some 'guff' to get through but i fancy our model watching will not be boring for too long.

[frosty ground]

plenty of interest in the 06z gefs. infact the strongest cluster early feb is a mid atlantic ridge. we may have some 'guff' to get through but i fancy our model watching will not be boring for too long.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=3&mode=0&carte=0

Shame that was'nt the main run with support

[moordown66]

A potentially daft question. I've currently got 5" of snow on the ground here in Herts. It's warming up at the weekend. When at the weekend, and when could I expect there to be no snow covering left? I'm struggling a bit with the output for then.

[StormyLincs]

http://modeles.meteo...s-0-1-216.png?6

GFS 06z Control Run......... This leads to Cold! Do I win anything

Yeah.....Strawclutcher of the year award! lol

[Cloud 10]

Final post for the morning.

To all those who are complaining about mine & Steve M negative posts this morning. Please could you post a chart from any model that suggests a return to cold between +144 to +240. Also try and find a chart that suggests any form of blocking to our N in the same time period.

Good luck!!

..only at +228 as well...

[Frosty.]

Early February looks like our next chance of a cold shot, next week looks milder with the jet more sw/ne and the charts next week look poor for cold and good for mild but after that the jet could begin to tilt more nw/se with a more amplified pattern, better chance of mid atlantic ridge building north and a trough dropping into scandinavia would set up a polar maritime blast eventually turning into an Arctic blast but the 00z showed a colder more advanced Northerly towards the end although subject to a topple a few days after, the 6z shows a potentially more sustained Nly beginning to gather strength and longevity wise it's promising, the troughing to the northeast has a better alignment but it's pointless at this range. It looks like we will have at least a week of mildish mush to work through before we start to see a colder trend, this time more likely from the northwest or north rather than the east/ne.

As for the breakdown, a snowy spell ahead of the rain and relatively milder temps on saturday, earlier in the west/nw, then less cold, windy and showery on sunday before it turns milder, wet and windy for the first half of next week, a nw/se split then for a time with the southeast becoming drier and mild but with strong swly winds, the north and west remaining more unsettled but mildish with spells of rain and swly gales.

We really need to see the cold block pushed well away to the east next week so we can move on more progressively to the next cold spell, the longer the block lingers out of reach next week as the gfs 00z showed, the longer it will take for us to see the lows push through cleanly and get to a better upstream pattern.

[Summer Sun]

06z ensembles

[Timmytour]

Here's my straw......it's my Atlantic Flying Swan!

Much more over to the East then in the previous run, which is not good.....but definitely showing signs of beginning to head in the right direction. I'll give it four more runs by which time i expect to see her back out in the Atlantic, heading north west, and looking back to see where she was once positioning herself

[Northern Sky]

plenty of interest in the 06z gefs. infact the strongest cluster early feb is a mid atlantic ridge. we may have some 'guff' to get through but i fancy our model watching will not be boring for too long.

I don't post very often as I'm happy to leave it to those with more knowledge of the charts than me. However as a long time lurker I think it's fair to say that most of us read this thread in winter in the hope of seeing an evolution to cold. It looks pretty clear that we will have to get through a period of milder weather but, I think I probably don't just speak for myself when I say I always enjoy reading posts from the likes of bluearmy, Phil W etc who approach things from a glass half full perspective. I certainly wouldn't call it hopecasting as there seem to be a number of signs - possible effects of the strat warming, ECM 32, MJO etc - that point to a possible return to cold next month.

This has been a really good cold spell here and as it's my day off I've just been for a drive round the Washburn valley which looked absolutely stunning in the snow and sunshine. If we can get another cold spell next month it will go down as a very good winter for me. If not, well never mind its allready been better than quite a few winters of recent memory.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

[Catacol]

What I will go on to say is that this winter is shaping up to be one of quite significant extremes and I feel that trend will continue.

The only extreme that I can see so far as we approach the 2 month mark is the amount of rain we have had. That I agree has been a feature. Precipitation amounts were very high and this may return through next week.

Elsewhere I'm not sure I agree really... temps have been pretty average and we have now had 4 - 5 days of snowfall across favoured parts of the UK, and that's pretty average too. Levels of snow in Scotland have been high, or so my Father tells me, but then again years of high snowfall in the Highlands come and go and cant really be described as extreme. We havent had a particularly noteworthy storm, nor a spell of BBQ weather mid winter either.

All seems very standard. Perhaps one or two local areas have had an extreme spell the last few days - I know the SW regional threads suggest that Hampshire, parts of Dorset, Wiltshire and the M4 corridor have had more snow than they would expect usually, but otherwise 4 - 6 inches of snow over the Peak District and other upland areas is nothing to write home about.

Pretty ordinary?

[Frosty.]

I don't think the Ecm will give many clues about the next cold spell since it's currently beyond T+240 hours but at least if it starts showing the jet turning more nw/se it will be heading in the right direction, I though the ecm 00z was a dreadful run for cold prospects once the current freeze ends.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Control GFS 06z withe the Iceland High !

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

The only extreme that I can see so far as we approach the 2 month mark is the amount of rain we have had. That I agree has been a feature. Precipitation amounts were very high and this may return through next week.

Elsewhere I'm not sure I agree really... temps have been pretty average and we have now had 4 - 5 days of snowfall across favoured parts of the UK, and that's pretty average too. Levels of snow in Scotland have been high, or so my Father tells me, but then again years of high snowfall in the Highlands come and go and cant really be described as extreme. We havent had a particularly noteworthy storm, nor a spell of BBQ weather mid winter either.

All seems very standard. Perhaps one or two local areas have had an extreme spell the last few days - I know the SW regional threads suggest that Hampshire, parts of Dorset, Wiltshire and the M4 corridor have had more snow than they would expect usually, but otherwise 4 - 6 inches of snow over the Peak District and other upland areas is nothing to write home about.

Pretty ordinary?

not sure I agree with this. I was thinking on the drive in this morning basically what Matt Hugo put - although he obviously expressed it far more scientifically! My thoughts were that although the CET is probably running about average(ish), there seem to have been very few average days since winter started. Some very low mins in early Dec at least IMBY (I remember driving in to minus 8 one day), then some exceptional rainfall. Then the exceptional mildness of early January, followed by what will be fairly widely a sub-zero fortnight. Minus 12 this morning I think counts as something to write home about! So - what may end up looking like a rather average winter statistically may hide the much more exciting reality that it has been.

Back to the models - and this story of extremes could well continue in the next 2-3 weeks, with possibly another period of exceptional mild to get through, and then hints of something exceptionally cold if the glimmers of northerlys/greenland highs develop into anything more conclusive.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There is a world of difference between the models now and last week. For example we now have very good agreement amongst all the models and ensembles which cannot be said for last week.

Sorry but anyone expecting a significant change to a cold spell between +144 to +240 is in denial. Comments such as "I don't trust the models" is called hopecasting and trust me I know because I used to do it myself!

Dave

Its not hopecasting mate at all, maybe I 'hopecasted' this current period to the correct days too? The models are NOT accurate in the 144-240 range, but going on the models the breakdown is favourite for sure by a country mile with a Bartlett chucked in somewehere too. What I think we need to do is get much nearer to see how it pans out NOT just accept that the models are exactly right upto to ten days. We had model consensus a few times before now and it didn't work out.

By the way, its coming

BFTP

Edited January 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MattH]

not sure I agree with this. I was thinking on the drive in this morning basically what Matt Hugo put - although he obviously expressed it far more scientifically! My thoughts were that although the CET is probably running about average(ish), there seem to have been very few average days since winter started. Some very low mins in early Dec at least IMBY (I remember driving in to minus 8 one day), then some exceptional rainfall. Then the exceptional mildness of early January, followed by what will be fairly widely a sub-zero fortnight. Minus 12 this morning I think counts as something to write home about! So - what may end up looking like a rather average winter statistically may hide the much more exciting reality that it has been.

Back to the models - and this story of extremes could well continue in the next 2-3 weeks, with possibly another period of exceptional mild to get through, and then hints of something exceptionally cold if the glimmers of northerlys/greenland highs develop into anything more conclusive.

In a word 'exactly'...Most definitely a winter of extremes and stark variations to date.

Cheers, Matt.

[Frosty.]

Latest meto again has promise say between day 10 and 15 onwards with a return to below average temps, frost and ice, it makes no mention from what source but i'm going to assume it's via the polar maritime to arctic route rather than a rerun of what we have now. Until then, although it will become somewhat milder, there is no indication of blowtorch warmth (not from the metoffice anyway), more likely temps returning to around average which is somewhere around 6-8c generally, a few milder days than that are indicated and some a little colder but we are probably going to see significant height rises towards iceland/greenland in the mid range, so two rather different cold spells may end up being the highlights of this winter hopefully.

Edited January 22, 2013 by Frosty039

[Jason M]

First few days of Feb are renowned for being cold. I think its one of the Buchan cold spells from vague memory. If I were doing an LRF i'd always plump for something in the first week of Feb.

There are some signs of HLB in the very long term output although not worth taking too seriously at this stage. I was interested in the one early cold outrider within the GFS suite. Similar happened yesterday and we had the jem from GEM yesterday. Although the breakdown looks nailed on at this stage it does imply that if everything fell just right and the correct number of seagulls flapped their wings at just the right moment that changes could occur. Very very unlikely but..........

Jason

[Catacol]

In a word 'exactly'...Most definitely a winter of extremes and stark variations to date.

Cheers, Matt.

I'll go away and hunt some data. Much depends on the definition of "extreme" and local weather conditions will obviously play a part too, but the temps in December were not extreme, the mildness in early January was certainly not extreme and quoting one night of -12 degree minima is not extreme either. Unusually cold - yes.

While I hunt some data perhaps you could do the same too to prove your case?

Edited January 22, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Catacol]

Back to the models - and this story of extremes could well continue in the next 2-3 weeks, with possibly another period of exceptional mild to get through, and then hints of something exceptionally cold if the glimmers of northerlys/greenland highs develop into anything more conclusive.

I'm sorry, but the models are not showing a period of exceptional mild coming up and I have no idea where your hint of exceptional cold is coming from. The westerly to SW airflow that is inbound will be mild but not especially so. More likely to be wet. The models are all showing a LP dominated scenario through next week and you'll need to hunt pretty hard to find a GFS perturbation to support any hint of exceptional cold.

As soon as this changes I'll be the first to get excited, but this talk of "extreme" and "exceptional" weather gets me riled. It really isnt. The most exceptional aspect has been rainfall where throughout December rainfall remained within the top 10% range or thereabouts of the historical record whichever bracket of days you take. Source for that is Philip Eden's very good site:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/1212.htm

[Troubleatmill]

Dave

Its not hopecasting mate at all, maybe I 'hopecasted' this current period to the correct days too? The models are NOT accurate in the 144-240 range, but going on the models the breakdown is favourite for sure by a country mile with a Bartlett chucked in somewehere too. What I think we need to do is get much nearer to see how it pans out NOT just accept that the models are exactly right upto to ten days. We had model consensus a few times before now and it didn't work out.

By the way, its coming

BFTP

Whats coming BFTP?

I agree that the models are not accurate out past t144, but they do need to show the right set up in the end dont they? so although there is nothing to cling onto really at the moment but know it can all change what would be your forecast for the next two weeks?

Edited January 22, 2013 by Nick JB

[phil nw.]

A much milder spell on the way, the ecm and gfs from sunday onwards once the back is broken on our current cold spell on saturday, next week shows pressure rising to the se, lower to the nw, sw/ne jet profile = yuck.. probably a nw/se split eventually (wettest nw/driest se) but unsettled and milder for all at least the first half of next week, beyond next week, who knows?Deep FI on Gfs 00z looks to be trending colder but nowhere near as good as the current synoptics, northerlies=topplers wishbone northerlies are good for 1 thing, wishing for an easterly

Yes Frosty it will be a shame to see all this lovely snowy landscape melt away but it`s got to happen at some point and around 2 weeks of decent cold isn`t to be sniffed at in the UK.

I think we all accept the inevitable now with a milder outlook from the weekend- as you show there,

The only hope is that we can get some ridging from the Euro High far enough north over the UK to maintain some surface cold but it`s likely to be only a delaying factor as the upstream flow looks unstoppable for now.

The London Ens 2mtr temps continue to point to the change

Temps on the rise from the end of the week.

[Yorkshiresnows]

The NH pattern shows that were ARE seeing big effects, but unfortunately even a weak vortex carries some strength, and it has decided it wants to holiday in the north atlantic rather than go somewhere else. It's put the towel down on the sun bed too.. and the siberian chunk now appears to be considering a holiday further east. It's the luck of the draw. Someone earlier posted that the stats on SSW events are nowhere near to universal cold. What they do is open the door to an extreme spell of weather: indeed GP even confidently touted that this was exactly what was going to happen when he posted such a few days ago... but if the vortex shards that are left enter the atlantic then really that must trump most other processes going on.

I'm trying to become interested in other aspects of the pattern now, and the one that is really interesting is to see how the MJO composites fair running up against this SSW induced pattern. They are surely separate processes in themselves that usually have in impact on their own, but with both tropical convection and growing angular momentum running alongside a cracked and displaced vortex we have the chance to see which is the biggest global driver. I wonder on the historical record how often a phase 7/8 in January/February has been combined with a positive NAO and a strong atlantic westerly? Would it be unique? At moments like this I dont have enough bookmarks in Chrome and need a few more hours to search for any archive that might exist.

Agree with anyone saying that of course winter is not over. Heck - its only Jan 22 and a lot can change, but something drastic needs to happen to the projected polar pattern in terms of vortex placement if we are going to see any joy soon.

This is a nicely written post but geeeezee, why not go outside and enjoy what has and continues to be some fantastic winter cold weather (happening in the here, now and immediate future). Its almost as though everybody has had no winter weather at all. Yes, a change to mild is nailed on for next week ... but beyond that it bloody well is not. The Vortex is undergoing changes and movements that will continue to affect the weather pattern over the next few weeks as has been widely discussed.

In addition, I believe the MJO looks like being favourably placed into Feb, the Jet is often at its weakest winter strength as February moves on, so nothing to get downbeat about and I'm sure plenty more chances of the white stuff before spring comes along.

I've been reading and following the weather and enjoying this as well as other forums for many a long year and one thing I have learned is that changes from mild to cold can occur rapidly and without model fanfare.

Not having a personnal dig at you CH (this thread is just a bit too down in the dumps today).

For those that remember the late 90's and early 2000's, then this cold spell has been quite something (I so fondly remember certain posters claiming the end of Lowland snow in the UK !!!) whilst we chased with excitement a possible northerly toppler giving 1-2 days of transient snowfall at t300+ !!

Y.S

Edited January 22, 2013 by Yorkshiresnows