wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[Bobby]

ok.Thanks for that. Its my birthday monday and like the big kid in all of us i was hoping for snow just because my girlfriend had a load of snow on her bday last month! 1 day i will grow up but until then .......

Well you might get lucky, snow possible Sunday/Monday but far out at the moment but worth keeping an eye on, maybe something similar to that fall last month.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Rain

Temp : 4.4c DP +3.8c

Wind chill : +3.0c Humidity : 96%

[J10]

Dry here as well overnight, but a brief bit of snow this morning at work. Now firmly in the mild sector with drizzly rain.

A bit disappointed to be honest, I thought we would have a few decent snow showers , even if nothing settled.

Not expecting anything overnight, so probably will be snowed in.

At least a few dry days are in the offing.

My guide was poor for today, I based it on the GFS temps which had 3c this afternoon and lots of wintry showers!

If the models are wrong, we've got no chance.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

Ian Fergesson mentioned Snow moving in the S West UK Sunday into Monday comes to Wales!

[Marcus_surfer]

Ian Fergesson mentioned Snow moving in the S West UK Sunday into Monday comes to Wales!

Anything now would be a bonus, after last night disappointment, I've given up with snow this year. I'm fairly happy with what we have had, two main snow events.

[keithlucky]

Anything now would be a bonus, after last night disappointment, I've given up with snow this year. I'm fairly happy with what we have had, two main snow events.

Never have enough of a good thing Marcus like having a glass glass of Chianti you want more Lol. Edited February 5, 2013 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

So much for the cold week, further rise to 6.7c this evening, which is around the February average.

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[TonyH]

Never have enough of a good thing Marcus like having a glass glass of Cianti you want more Lol.

Or a glass of pop in my case!

[keithlucky]

Or a glass of pop in my case!

Whatever tickles your fancy T!

[CRACKPOT]

So much for the cold week, further rise to 6.7c this evening, which is around the February average.

Same here Tony - I am wondering what all the fuss is about the cold - it is seasonal average - thats NOT cold.

JK

[Penfoel]

what is your altitude penfoel?

217m asl according to google earth.

[J10]

I'd take "cold" and sunny over mild and wet any day of the week, particularity after this winter.

[whiskers]

Is it gonna snow here this week or not,I feel really confused?

[Penfoel]

So much for the cold week, further rise to 6.7c this evening, which is around the February average.

What about the wind chill factor Tony? It doesn't feel that warm to me here. Will hopefully be able to provide accurate data here as I have just ordered a weather station to satisfy my curiosity .

[Panayiotis]

Interesting fax chart for Friday, shows occluded front down the UK, and with the 528dam line in West Wales, anything to the east of the line could see snow....

[TonyH]

Same here Tony - I am wondering what all the fuss is about the cold - it is seasonal average - thats NOT cold.

JK

Astounding high temps given the origin of the air and the sub zero 850s!

Is it gonna snow here this week or not,I feel really confused?

Join the club

I'd take "cold" and sunny over mild and wet any day of the week, particularity after this winter.

Give me a dose of predictable Atlantic lows, heavy rain, with showers inbetween!

[bradymk]

Interesting fax chart for Friday, shows occluded front down the UK, and with the 528dam line in West Wales, anything to the east of the line could see snow....

As some have said on model thread, no precip really on that occlusion. What is of greater interest is the potential sig snow event end of weekend. However i would want a slight shift west in the next few days as the ECM shows rain for most of Wales when precip first arrives.

[welshwizard]

so what happened to the cold temps we were going to get? just looked out and I am quite high asl and it looks like rain or sleet at best,i thought we was going to get snow showers today with temps around 4 and dropping during the showers,i been out in car today and temps ranged from 3.5 to 7. no wonder its falling as rain. what does the next week (or 3 to 4 days)have in store for us in Wales guys?

[TonyH]

What about the wind chill factor Tony? It doesn't feel that warm to me here. Will hopefully be able to provide accurate data here as I have just ordered a weather station to satisfy my curiosity .

I tend to disregard this modern fad for windchill Penfoel and take temps at their face value!

[keithlucky]

Interesting fax chart for Friday, shows occluded front down the UK, and with the 528dam line in West Wales, anything to the east of the line could see snow....

Mentioned that rain sleet and light hill snow Friday mostly light though.Tomorrow talking about temps it will interesting what day time max will be 6c maximum in the South Wales considering we have a gale force Northerly flow from the Arctic should be lower than that ,it will not surprise me that west Wales could see a fair bit of snow in the heavier showers tomorrow.

[Bobby]

Off topic rant, gotta get it out

Been reading and posting in these forums since 2005 and the model discussion thread is by far the worse in terms of quality I can ever remember, basically completely unreadable, any newbie coming in a trying to learn and discover what the models are saying are going to have their heads explode,. Not even going to read it anymore until Spring/Summer when hopefully some sanity returns, basically unreadable now with the rampant bias, point scoring, person attacks, cliques. There. Fin.

Nasty night out there tonight, cold, dark, wet, windy, some sleet at times too I think, 3.2c at the moment. Sunday's event at the moment is looking on the wrong side of marginal, ECM and UKMO have a wetter affair than last night but still a long way out, some of the GFS ensembles give us a good dumping at least. Could be some big falls if the block holds and we get a slider to our SW.

[snefnug]

Sounds windy outside, Ruthin man's website says 7c, heavy rain/snail/hail earlier.

Interesting to see BBC vids appearing and disappearing through the course of the day.

Time for bed. Love that poem:

Come westerly wind when wilt thou blow the small rain down can rain. Christ if my love were in my arms, and I in my bed again.

Except the holy netweather swearchecker will change a significant word....

[mikeocarroll]

Just came back from Aberywswyth on the A44 and it was very wintry... rain, wind, flooding, tree branches in the road... typical British winter weather

A lot of heavy rain showers this afternoon, if only it were snow eh! Still most of wales got some decent snow a couple of weeks ago so we musn't grumble.

[loadsa]

Fergies latest posting interesting for Wales

Not really sure where all this misguided 'GFS is rubbish' twaddle emerged on here (we're discussing computer models, not football teams)... but to return to the focal point of Sunday, which we anticipate could deliver a significant snow event:

At stake here are some marked differences in the rate of E'ward frontal progression into the UK between the 12z UKMO-GM and other operational centre output, notably ECMWF. These appear correlated to the rapidity and scope at which the amplifying upper ridge over the country on Saturday cuts-off. For example, the 12z ECMWF deterministic is markedly slower with this process compared to UKMO-GM, with net result of retarding the frontal progression to a greater extent. This slower solution is favoured by Exeter, who have modified the GM accordingly (away from raw version you'll see on websites).

Clearly this has profound implications in what will prove a high-stakes forecast, should current evolution continue in similar tone. Bear in mind the frontal zone in question is only just now taking shape off E coast of N America... still a way to go on this story.

However, the slower EC (and presently modified GM) solution offers less threat of disruptive snow into London during Sunday, as opposed to raw GM, which did. Hence, this sort of issue - high stakes, as I suggest - remains a clear uncertainty.

The consensus solution follows EC's snow accumulation prognosis (sorry I'm not allowed to share that as actual mapping), which - with frontal leading edge moving into sub-300m WBFL air across much of S England & Midlands/Wales - looks a decidedly bothersome blend. EC offers as much as 10-15cm snow anywhere from approx central Somerset up through Bristol, eastwards to around Reading and north through pretty much all of Wales and West Mids (some peak totals in these areas excess of 20cm). To the SE, similar amounts (to around 10cm) across Wilts, Hants, to W Sussex. Clearly, distribution is uncertain but in broad terms, the combined weight of EPS and deterministic output is indicative of parts of W/S Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland, N England, Wales, West Country north of Taunton, West Midlands and southern-central England being most at risk of disruptive snowfall durIng Sunday and overnight into early Monday. Currently, Exeter suggest 30% chance of some snow into London itself later on Sunday, albeIt any ccumulations here in the capital are thought likely to be pretty small.

Anyway, that's some detailed thoughts for now, ahead of whatever the 00z runs might yield.

Edited February 5, 2013 by loadsa

[Panayiotis]

With Ian and Metoffice's analysis Sunday could be v.interesting and could be better (in terms of snow) than the January event, Sunday needs watching!

*And waits for Andy's comment*

If you look at my signature, I said that the 10th February it will get colder (yes it is cold now but only 1-2degrees below average)

Hmmmm 10th February is a Sunday...

Edited February 6, 2013 by Panayiotis