wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[jenko]

where's andymusic? whats your thoughts andy

[andymusic]

OK next SNOW point - no one seems to be picking up the snow potential for thursday night into Friday - defo snow overnight then

sorry I haven't been posting more - very busy with my musicy job - up to Blackpool tomoz - Liza's recording some original songs for Sky TV!

And back to the weather - Sunday is looking pretty bad for snow on the GFS 18z right now - but I have a hunch that's just a bad model run - as with all these cold spells - models are rubbish after about 48 hours - so wait until we get closer - before getting all ancy - it will probably be all snow and quite alot of snow too - Fergie seems to think so aswell - I'm going with a pretty good snow event for sunday right now

EDIT - ECM looks tonnes better for some mega Easterly action - so all in all a fairly snowy outlook right now!

Edited February 6, 2013 by Snowmadsam

[mikeocarroll]

The lack of posts this morning is no doubt due to 1) the disappointing lack of snow over the last couple of days and 2) the downgrade from the models this morning, esp ECM, of Sunday's event.

Today looks to be largely dry and cold. Currently 3.5c here and would expect a max of around 5-6c. It gets colder tonight as the real cold uppers dig back in, and there is the possiblity of the odd light wintry flurry, especially in NW Wales, but nothing too significant to my eyes, as high pressure builds from the west.

Tomorrow sees a slight 'sliding' low to west of Britain, pushing a front (occluded) over Wales and which lingers around bringing a lengthy period of moderate precipitation. The NMM shows plenty of precip and good cold uppers, but as with much of this week the real problem is dewpoints. I would think hill snow (300m+) is likely and temporary snow down to low levels is possible, but not accumulations.

Then interest turns to the low moving in on Sunday, and as of this morning's 0z runs, it looks to bring mild south-westerly winds initially and the whole system is too far east (and north) to bring much snow for Wales. There is still plenty of time for modifications west though. Ian F's comments last night were encouraging, but it read to me that the MetO were modifying the UKMO-GM towards yesterday's 12z ECM solution. Now that the ECM has shifted things further East, it would seem likely that the MetO forecast guidance will change.

[Ginkrots]

Despite the lack of wintry showers, it's not that bad here. Nice blue skies and sunshine in the SE

[Bobby]

The models at the moment are looking rather uninspiring to me. ECM and UKMO seem have further downgraded the Sunday potential snow event with the low moving more over us rather than to the SW, which means milder air and probably rain. GFS is currently the best with the low sliding to our SW but even that looks very marginal. There's little support in the ensembles for a snow event also.

Beyond that into next week it looks rather uninteresting, can't see where any proper cold is going to come from with a return to milder Atlantic weather looking more likely.

[loadsa]

Sounds like the BBC are a bit up in the air as well

Derek Brockwayâ€@DerekTheWeather

The forecast for Sunday into Monday is uncertain with differences between the models. Rain, sleet and snow risk!

[keithlucky]

Nice to see the met met are still saying snow Sunday into Monday in west UK so they quite bullish about our snow prospects before they expect rain preceded by snow breakdown the middle of next week.

[loadsa]

Fergies latest comments

Well, MOGREPS & EC EPS have remained in good broad agreement re a snowy breakdown (in repeated bouts) through first half of next week (with focus on central-southern-western districts) and thereafter a strong signal for W/SW unsettled regime to establish, albeit degree of cylonicity unclear. It would take a marked broadscale change to alter that story. Incidentally, UKMO have decided to dismiss GFS evolution into Sun-Mon as it bears no resemblance to EPS consensus. As of 00z solutions, EC remains the favoured outcome. Anyway, let's see how the next runs carry the tale forward.

[blackrose73]

I'm not very hopeful about this event on Sunday. It seems like it could be cold rain for us here in Wales as the snow risk has been shifted eastwards. GFS now falling into line with the other models too. We're still a few days out but I would be surprised to see a shift west now.

Edited February 6, 2013 by blackrose73

[bradymk]

Sunday's event looks like a rain event initially but all show a rain to snow event with the front being pushed back westwards when the colder air digs in behind. This would bring rain to all of Wales most of Sunday before changing to snow sunday night into monday as the front backs westward. I would take a rain to snow event tbh.

[mikeocarroll]

Latest NMM shows a greater potential for snow tomorrow evening, especially for high ground in Mid & North Wales:

You can see dewpoints are very close to freezing; lower than forecast by previous runs:

Marginal but could be an unexpected snow event, especially if dewpoints are just a little bit colder then there could be accumualtions of several centimetres.

Edited February 6, 2013 by mikeocarroll

[bradymk]

Latest NMM shows a greater potential for snow tomorrow evening, especially for high ground in Mid & North Wales:

You can see dewpoints are very close to freezing; lower than forecast by previous runs:

Marginal but could be an unexpected snow event, especially if dewpoints are just a little bit colder then there could be accumualtions of several centimetres.

yes an upgrade from NMM but for DP's to be lower, we are going to need lower temperatures/lower humidity and I think these are still too high for low enough DP's. If your 200/300m+ though, it could be a good event but precip fairly light but persistent.

[foggybrynna]

Looking at BBC weather looks like winter is over guys

[freeze for all]

Looking at BBC weather looks like winter is over guys

There's still plenty of time left mate, the way our summers are lately its winter all year around

Edited February 6, 2013 by freeze for all

[mikeocarroll]

Looking at BBC weather looks like winter is over guys

I can't see any article / video saying that winter is over or for that matter that we won't get any more cold or snow this winter? If you could post a link it would be appreciated...

[Jayfromcardiff]

Looking at BBC weather looks like winter is over guys

Why make such a stupid comment with no evidence to back it up? Not only that, BBC aren't always right - December 2010 prime example - no snow showers forecast for SE Wales yet we ended up with constant very heavy snow which left over a foot in some parts.

Derek on BBC Wales said that they're currently unsure on whether it's going to rain or snow early next week with amounts of snow uncertain so all to play for IMO.

[Panayiotis]

Looking at BBC weather looks like winter is over guys

If youre on about their website then I could tell you one thing,DONT! Never use a weather website for (medium/longer term) information because 100% they'll change. For the best information (for medium/longer term) look on here or learn how to interpret the models.

Only look at the BBC/other websites for what the weather will be like in a day or 2.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

If your hoping for some snow sunday in Wales, 12z's are a real downgrade it has to be said. A big shift west is needed for us to join in. Further east you are in Wales, the better the chance of seeing a rain to snow event but snow only as the precip drags away to our south.

[foggybrynna]

Why make such a stupid comment with no evidence to back it up? Not only that, BBC aren't always right - December 2010 prime example - no snow showers forecast for SE Wales yet we ended up with constant very heavy snow which left over a foot in some parts.

Derek on BBC Wales said that they're currently unsure on whether it's going to rain or snow early next week with amounts of snow uncertain so all to play for IMO.

Why make such a stupid comment with no evidence to back it up? Not only that, BBC aren't always right - December 2010 prime example - no snow showers forecast for SE Wales yet we ended up with constant very heavy snow which left over a foot in some parts.

Derek on BBC Wales said that they're currently unsure on whether it's going to rain or snow early next week with amounts of snow uncertain so all to play for IMO.

[foggybrynna]

That the way I feel that winter is over and theres no need for you to reply with a comment like that

[Bobby]

That the way I feel that winter is over and theres no need for you to reply with a comment like that

Yes let's not have the nastiness of the model thread here too, being doing well so far this winter, treat everyone nice even if you disagree with them.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yes let's not have the nastiness of the model thread here too, being doing well so far this winter, treat everyone nice even if you disagree with them.

Hardly nasty, just giving my opinion on the comment as it's only early February and there's many weeks to play for yet in regards to snow opportunities. Just saying that posting a comment saying that winter is over with no evidence isn't helpful to any newbies reading our forum, if there were charts to write off the next month or so then i'd like to see them.

[SLAMMER]

i'd imagine andymusic is getting more offers from the met office as we speak after predicting this latest blizzard?

this is not nasty just would like andy to be a little less enthusiastic and claim that he knows more than the professionals.

we all get things wrong and we all get them right but to claim that you know better is a bit rum.

here's hoping to a final hurrah for winter in the next month or so.

[Gavla]

Can anyone see the chances of snow for us tomorow ?, looking at the snow risk maps there seems to be a good risk of some snow tomorrow but im just an amateur so someone can say for sure. All this talk about sun/mon event and we arent even talking about whats happening in the shorter timeframe.

[Wosser]

Like the weather warnings http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html looks like an old wizard to me lol

Edited February 6, 2013 by wizzy