South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Guest archiesmummy]

John pike told me in september about it getting cold the beginning of Dec, mild over Christmas, colder again in Jan with a warm up end of Jan and a cold Feb from about the 10th with cold continuing into march and start of April with a quick warm up towards the end, I am on my phone and can't seem to copy and paste it across but have been well impressed with John!

Had a lovely start to the day but has clouded over quite quickly, its coming!

[tight isobar]

Will all important Greenland heights come to fruition??, judging latest output, i would have to say in view although still some way off, yes Gfs continues hints along gefs. Its a shame ecm/ukmo, do not go out to latter frames,but febuary has been flagged up for some time now by lots in the know, for perhaps being the cold shock month.Its also worth remembering, output is also hinting, ie gfs of possible quick cold incursions,with snow chance in nearer time frame(more reliable)with our region perhaps favoured for any probable snow of any sort.i for one feel we could be begining, to see the first signals, of a more defined, slide into the freezer.and will be watching evolution,over coming days with great antisapation!!!.

[Guest bjaykent]

John pike told me in september about it getting cold the beginning of Dec, mild over Christmas, colder again in Jan with a warm up end of Jan and a cold Feb from about the 10th with cold continuing into march and start of April with a quick warm up towards the end, I am on my phone and can't seem to copy and paste it across but have been well impressed with John!

Had a lovely start to the day but has clouded over quite quickly, its coming!

Yes its great to have someone with such in-depth knowledge posting regularly in the regionals. I, like many have the interest but not the knowledge and John is someone I certainly sit up and take notice of.

[Coast]

the first signals, of a more defined, slide into the freezer.and will be watching evolution,over coming days with great anticipation!!!.

Hmmm, the London free-atmosphere chart from GFS is showing that slow slide down in temps again this morning:

[tight isobar]

Gfs 6z +96 and already, án easterly being shown of sorts, and although 850.hpa, is at -4, Its shows that the current milder) is leon not ön cards forhanging around long...

[tight isobar]

Feeling this current rolling gonna be a cracker,,more so latter frames, all important azores high,,,where will she end up is the all important,,hopefully, dúlt bedded overgreenland, in latter more reliable runs...

[Hotspur62]

Well,after all the excitement from about 13-25th January which brought pretty good snow events to the SE(some better than others!!),are we in the lull before the storm in terms of cold weather?Have been watching models and the pros on the Model Thread(They know who they are!) seem to think there is a pretty good chance of Cold becoming established from around 10th Feb.Nothing set in stone but if things fit into place then this Thread could be in meltdown again around that timescale!!In the shorterm we have a couple of very mild days(upto 12-13 degrees here tomorrow!!) but very wet days to come.Come weekend,small chance of backedge snow Saturday which may be worth watching but i think from around 5th onwards is when we will see trend towards cold and eventually very cold?

It maybe time to wax the sledges again and we might need them-Would love a mini December 2010 event again here which gave us 17inchs of lying snow to this lucky part of NW Kent(Been paying for that ever since as we have always missed out on snow events!!)

[Coast]

Well it may be FI, another land or another planet, but GFS is starting to pick up on a colder spell form the East and even gives us this as a possibility (a very, very long shot) in it's latest run:

Now that could be a huge red herring, but colder temps do seem to creep closer from our East next week and beyond:

[Tamara]

The NAE has downgraded the wind strength thankfully a little for this evening - its still going to be very windy but not as much as it was indicating yesterday. Looking forward to when this unsettled spell finishes - obviously a cold spell with snow would be ideal, but just some pleasant quieter weather would be much welcomed and much better than this.

[legrandefromage]

OH For flips sake! if its not -8c its bloody strong winds... Cycling home tonight at a round at 6pm between Peterborough and Huntingdon. Looks like I'll be going backwards!

Edited January 28, 2013 by legrandefromage

[alexisj9]

Coast, Is this basically what the forcast you posted is talking about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derecho

[Coast]

The NAE has downgraded the wind strength thankfully a little for this evening - its still going to be very windy but not as much as it was indicating yesterday.

NAE has dropped it a lot in comparison to others:

Direct comparison with GFS:

and closest UKMO:

GFS seems to have shifted the bigger gusts a little North:

But still has a lot of activity this afternoon:

[Tamara]

NAE has dropped it a lot in comparison to others:

Direct comparison with GFS:

and closest UKMO:

GFS seems to have shifted the bigger gusts a little North:

But still has a lot of activity this afternoon:

Yes, I saw that Estofex Level 1 as well

[tight isobar]

And the trend continues...sustained blocking a definate possibilty, and cannot be ignored.gfs has been somewhat lack,lustre of late,but theres no denying, it,mark ön trend setting overall.febuary gonna be one to watch for sure....

[Coast]

Coast, Is this basically what the forcast you posted is talking about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derecho

I'm not sure it is (If you mean the ESTOFEX one) :unsure: I don't think the severe thunderstorms are quite there for a Derecho event - Paul Sherman would be your guide here.

[tight isobar]

Admitidly, heights not as yet!,evolved complete heights established át Greenland, although would,nt be át all suprised, as nearer frames begin the all important completion.then Its truely game on. For us.

[Coast]

It's on it's way now!

[Tilly]

hi all!

Hope everyone had a good weekend! So, this week starts with some Windy weather then huh? Looking forward to my house shaking later!! Brilliant that after the Snow has gone we have some other interesting weather to come. Nice one Mother Nature

[Tamara]

Coast, Is this basically what the forcast you posted is talking about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derecho

I'm no expert on things like this, but a feature like that is very unlikely *she says fingers crossed*. I think from what is suggested from the text that is written, is that although some line convection along the cold front is possible, it will probably be 'relatively' shallow and therefore much less severe than any derecho type event which gives big thunderstorms as well as exceptionally intense ppn and damaging wind gusts. However strong wind gusts are likely later today, as is often the case with fronts of this type associated with deep low pressure areas and a strong jet stream. Others will know more about wind shear and things like that which can produce tornadoes - it seems that the small risk for these is over the more northern parts of the country

[Coast]

hi all!

Morning Tilly!

Looking forward to my house shaking later!!

Well, what you get up to in your own home......

Winds up to 64 mph off the Western Irish coast (Mace Head) now:

Others will know more about wind shear and things like that which can produce tornadoes - it seems that the small risk for these is over the more northern parts of the country

The shear is significant late afternoon, so an isolated tornado almost anywhere can't be ruled out:

TORRO have a discussion out now, it's concentrating more on the North:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/001

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 10:25GMT on Monday 28th January 2013

Valid from/until: 10:25 – 23:00GMT on Monday 28th January 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Cent and N Eire N Ireland N England IoM Scotland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 70mph; occasional CG lightning; hail 10-15mm diameter

SYNOPSIS

A powerful Atlantic depression is pushing an active frontal system across the British Isles. Mid-level dry intrusion is overruning the front across western Eire, and occasional sferic activity has been noted. Convective elements, perhaps including short line segments should accompany the cold front/occlusion as it moves across the discussion area.

Strong cloud-layer shear suggests that rotation could develop within convection, and strong low-level shear (40-50 knots in places) and a fairly moist low-level airmass suggest that brief tornadoes are possible. In addition, the strong low-level flow is conducive to severe wind gusts, of 60-65mph. Post-frontal convection across Eire is also expected to move in this afternoon, and will also be strongly sheared. Low-topped supercells are possible in N Ireland and N Eire, with the risk of isolated tornadoes, wind gusts to 70 mph, and hail.

The overall situation is fairly borderline for organised severe convection so a discussion seems appropriate at this stage.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Coast

[Gary_R_Walker]

Glorious weather here in Lowestoft. I will be spending my day off work pottering about on my boat on the Broads. Perfect.

[Timmytour]

Looking ahead....i expect the flow of traffic on here to pep up again around the 7th february....winter is not done with us yet (even this weekend might give us some transitory stuff)

[Steve C]

Morning all.

An earlier sunny and frosty (1C) start has given way to cloud. Potentially interesting weather coming then.

[Heisenberg]

_{Great....more extreme weather....I also think winter will be back for a second go at us. poss more wintery mix this weekend then next week......who knows. Stay safe everyone}

[Coast]

Looking ahead....i expect the flow of traffic on here to pep up again around the 7th february....winter is not done with us yet (even this weekend might give us some transitory stuff)

Maybe, maybe not - it's a helluva long-shot but GFS say: