South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[Methuselah]

and the sausages are tied down on the BBQ

BBQ at Piers Corbyn's place?

[Floatylight]

Still not back together then??anyway been away for a bit what's going on?

Hope u all well anyway xYes we are sorry,learn to read Sam!lol

Edited January 30, 2013 by Floatylight

[Tom Jarvis]

Reports of a meterite in the sky any one seen it

[Fatboypirate]

Clear sky but not seen a meteor here, temp starting to dip but pressure still rising and the wind seems to be calming down.

[shotski]

Looks very similar synoptics to the cold spell that just came and went according to the ECM!

Looking good PC, I would say the difference this time will be a stronger Scandi high and eventual

retrogress to Greenland (late feb) The coldest part of winter to come at the end of this year as opposed

to previous winters.

Shotski

Edited January 30, 2013 by shotski

[john pike]

Looking good PC, I would say the difference this time will be a stronger Scandi high and eventual

retrogress to Greenland (late feb) The coldest part of winter to come at the end this year as opposed

to previous winters.

Shotski

also i expect a much colder march this year

[shotski]

also i expect a much colder march this year

Whats your take on Fridays snow event John ?

If this came off we could see a decent amount up here.

[Tom Jarvis]

Just had more info on the meteor that it happened at 21:03 it has been seen in Yorkshire and Nottingham

[john pike]

Whats your take on Fridays snow event John ?

If this came off we could see a decent amount up here.

hi shotski

i reckon the low is being overdone

i also reckon precip will be further south

i will update fax charts soon

i do think we have a good chance fri night and saturday

[Guest bjaykent]

Well next time you east coasters get a storm, go to the beach and search for Whale Vomit!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-21254718

[Gary_R_Walker]

On Friday we have a chance of snow, meteorites, and dinosaurs. I made up the bit about the dinosaurs. The rest is pure science.

[CWT2012]

As long as there is no heavy snow on the 6th or before 14.00 on the 7th, Heathrow closes even when there is a dusting

[john pike]

it might be raining dinosaurs

[john pike]

tonight heavy blustery showers moving across overnight

should clear in the morning

tomorrow

strong westerly wind

the odd shower about but mainly dry

temps 8 -10 but wont feel it

tomorrow night

gusty south west wind

starts dry but heavy gusty rain later in night

6 degrees

friday

after the heavy rain has cleared

the low will pass to our east

this will then make the wind swing north easterly -north westerly

temperatures dropping in the afternoon quite quickly

colder air almost over the south east

friday night

a very strong north east wind, huge windchill

colder 528 dam air in place

i would be surprised if snowfall did not fall from this

amounts are hard to say at present

saturday

a bitterly cold northerly wind

still under 528 dam air

at present this looks dry however unstable air could pick up showers during the day(would be snow)

update the rest soon

[Croydondazz]

Off to bed I will read johns update when I awake at 5am so thanks in advance

Thanks John

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello my long lost friends, well i hope you still are (my friends , I have actually met some of you ) I am still about, but largely I reside over in the CSE and SW thread and it is from there I want to provide a posting.

Have a read guys n gals, JP et. al keep up the good work.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On top of the wonderful analyses already provided, I wish to add my initial thoughts for the first third of February and perhaps beyond.

As usual, I am basing my evidence on consecutive GFS 12z runs and where need be, additional tweaking from other sources from elsewhere.

As ever, I urge newbies and/or unexperienced model output followers to please view things only from a global perspective. In general, miniscule yet undeveloped surface features often at the >t+96 timescale only serve to confuse your interpretation of the model output. This week, being a special case in point of this, as we have a very difficult forecasting situation at the <48 hour timeframe.

In fact, let us look at where the NH Jetstream was projected to be by todays date (Wednesday 30th January, 12pm), some two days ago. As a consequence, what were the expected associated T850s.

To be expected, it did develop into what we basically witnessed at the surface, a breezy type of day with the NH Jetstream roaring directly above our heads. However, when we move forward another 48 hours to Friday 1st February, 12pm), we were expected to see the following conditions, NH Jetstream and T850s profile wise.

Compared to what is now expected on the hugely anticipated date of Friday 1st February, 12pm.

Not much has changed from the GFS 12z expectations of two days ago, compared to what is now projected. If anything, today's 12z run has upped the anti with the depression. However, the split flow in the NH Jetstream is much more of a talking point because after Friday's event it offers the UK a complete reversal in terms of airflow from tropical maritime to polar maritime, albeit temporarily.

So now what of what on Monday was the t+144 timescale, Sunday 3rd February, 12pm. Previous expectations against todays, having moved forward to t+96 timescale. Firstly in terms of NH Jetstream.

Monday's 12z at t+144.

Todays's 12z at t+96.

How about Sunday's T850s profile wise. Then and now.

What is apparent now is quite a divergence in output, from just the last couple of days.

Two important points to note here IMHO are, that we MUST NOT DISMISS the relatively high chances of backedge snowfall (I guess at a 60% to 70% risk for my location) from the Friday event. This takes place between the previously shown chart above and the current one. What is not shown is the large range of t850s diving South from polar regions, in between the two charts, i.e come the very cold February 2nd as hinted at by AWD.

My second point is such charts, on the face of look rather disappointing springlike synoptics, after a brief tempory excursion from the North, in fact by t+144 (Tuesday 5th February, 12pm) end with us heading towards an ever cooler wintry type of synoptic yet again.

NH Jetstream diving South once again.

Associated T850s profile at Tuesday 5th February, 12pm timeframe.

And then some, come Thursday 7th February, 12pm, courtesy of NH Jetstream and T850s once again.

It would be futile to look in detail, any further than next Thursday, however I firmly believe there will be a significant upgrade in the coming days, when speaking of further cold potential and wintry type synoptics. Three dates seemingly stand out for me as ones to watch at this range, they are Friday 1st February, Tuesday 5th February and yet further potential for yet deeper cold from the 10th February onwards.

• For the more immediate timeframe, regarding the appoach of the potentially dangerous (hopefully trending less so) development, I advise folk to follow posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates.
  

Stay safe and stay tuned to this regional for many more updates.

[Jan_Bromley]

Thank you GTLTW,

Very informative and interesting

[john pike]

hi gt

nice update

i would add watch the 7th to your list as well

i agree re the charts upgrading

they are just out of the reliable timefrme and gfs keeps doing the default mode

heres the 240 for gfs for example

now the 240 from ecm

tomorrow night should give us the 5th on the fax chart

interesting times incoming

[john pike]

finally updated fax charts

sunday

breezy westerly wind but not too strong

temperatures warmer again around 8-9 degrees

during the afternoon showers moving in , some heavy

monday

gusty north westerly wind

temperatures going down again around 6 degrees and feeling cold in the wind

there will be showers around and some heavy

ukmo bottom right chart shows the low up north pushing south and squeezing the high up the atlantic

much colder air on the way

tomorrow will show tuesday on the fax chart

Edited January 30, 2013 by john pike

[Paul Ashford]

finally updated fax charts

sunday

breezy westerly wind but not too strong

temperatures warmer again around 8-9 degrees

during the afternoon showers moving in , some heavy

monday

gusty north westerly wind

temperatures going down again around 6 degrees and feeling cold in the wind

there will be showers around and some heavy

ukmo bottom right chart shows the low up north pushing south and squeezing the high up the atlantic

much colder air on the way

tomorrow will show tuesday on the fax chart

For personal reasons I LIKE THIS ;-)

[john pike]

For personal reasons I LIKE THIS ;-)

hi paul

still got my eye on it for you

[john pike]

quick ramp chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=14&mode=0&carte=0

[john pike]

Another spell of heavy and persistent rain may spread to parts of Wales and southern England during Friday. The rain may turn to snow at times, particularly over hills. Given the saturated state of the ground and high river levels, the public should be aware that further localised flooding and disruption to travel is possible.

The rain may also be accompanied by strong winds with potential for gales or severe gales around exposed coasts and over hills.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

[Jimmyh]

Tell u what wind really picking up here sounds wild out the right now

[Summer of 76]

Yes it has really picked up in the past half an hour, some really strong gusts